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The drivers’ championship fight may be increasingly an all-McLaren affair but Max Verstappen has put himself in a strong position to beat them in Sunday’s Italian Grand Prix.

Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri know they can’t afford to risk too much against the Red Bull driver as they need all the points they can lay their hands on.

But while Verstappen may hold the upper hand strategically, McLaren have often been quicker in race trim this year. And Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari is close behind – he qualified in the same position he won last year’s race from.

The cars are close in performance but will that produce a close fight for victory or another ‘DRS train’? Here’s the key data for Sunday’s race.

Weather

Formula 1 has enjoyed two warm, sunny days at Monza and the conditions are likely to be much the same on Sunday. The ambient temperature should peak at around 27C.

Start

Not only does Monza have one of the longest runs to the first braking zone of any track on the calendar, it also has an unusually slow, narrow and tight first bend. The Rettifilo chicane is often the scene of first-lap incidents and it’s not uncommon for drivers to cut it at the start and have to surrender positions, as we’ve already seen in support races this weekend.

Distance from pole position to first braking zone. Source: Mercedes

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Monza is a challenging first lap for the pole-winner not just because of the long run to the first corner, but also the subsequent acceleration zone after which drivers arrive at the Roggia chicane. This is where Norris lost the lead to Piastri last year – and a further position to Leclerc.

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Strategy

Last year drivers chose the following compounds to start the race on:

Following Friday practice, Pirelli increased the minimum permitted pressures for front tyres by 1psi to 26.5psi.

Pirelli has not yet confirmed the full details of how many sets of tyres each driver has available for the race. This data will be added here once it is published.

Last year the McLaren drivers made two pit stops in the race but were beaten by Leclerc, who opted for a single-stop strategy. Pirelli expects most teams to favour a single pit stop this weekend. While teams are likely to have reserved a set of the medium and hard tyres for each car to do this, Pirelli believes some could try using the soft tyre.

This strategy could be particularly viable for those with fresh sets left over from qualifying. Any driver who opts to start on the hards would have a strong incentive to delay their pit stop as late as possible in the hope of switching to softs or benefitting from a Safety Car period – or even both.

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Overtaking

The DRS zone layout is unchanged from last year. Drivers can use DRS on the straights after Parabolica (turn 11) and Lesmo 2 (turn seven).

The last race at Zandvoort saw several incidents between drivers fighting for positions. As a result all but four drivers now have at least one penalty point on their licence. Pole-winner Verstappen has the most, with nine:

Speed trap

One team has clearly prioritised their top speed on Monza’s long straights: Sauber, whose cars were over 3kph faster through the speed trap than anything else. Ferrari may also have trimmed Hamilton’s car out a bit more knowing he had a five-place grid penalty and will have to be able to overtake to gain places.

Among the cars at the very front, Verstappen has a slight edge on the McLarens which may make it harder for them to pass him.

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Safety Cars

The last two races at Monza ran without a single Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car period. However the race before that, in 2022, ended under a long Safety Car period after Daniel Ricciardo’s McLaren came to a stop. The race was also briefly interrupted by a VSC when Sebastian Vettel’s Aston Martin broke down.

Grid

The grid for this year’s race is as follows. Any changes between now and the start of the race will be added here:

Championship implications

If the drivers finish where they start, Norris will cut Piastri’s championship lead to 31 points, and Verstappen will reduce his deficit to 94.

Over to you

Verstappen wasn’t able to convert any of his last three pole positions into victory. Will he deny the championship contenders for his third victory of the season?

Share your predictions for the Italian Grand Prix in the comments.

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