Is A’ja Wilson’s WNBA MVP candidacy faltering? Who else could win? Our experts debate

The Athletic has launched a series of sports debates in which two writers break down a specific topic. In this edition, Sabreena Merchant and Ben Pickman debate the WNBA MVP race.

Sabreena Merchant: We’re officially in WNBA awards season, with just about four weeks until the start of the playoffs. We’ve spent much of the year breaking down the rookie of the year race, but as we head down the home stretch, there is a more interesting contest at play: the race for MVP.

Ben Pickman: Las Vegas Aces star A’ja Wilson has been the clear front-runner to win her third MVP since the season began in May. She averaged 26.5 points and 12.5 rebounds in May, then increased her scoring in June and July, winning Western Conference Player of the Month in the season’s first three months and becoming the first player in WNBA history to average at least 25 points and 10 rebounds in consecutive months. She had a streak of eight consecutive games of 20 points and 10 rebounds, the longest in league history, and her streak of 20 games with 20 or more points also set a WNBA record. Though that snapped, she is still averaging 27.2 points and 13.3 rebounds on 50.8 percent shooting over her last 10 games. Simply put, she has been dominant on both ends.

Merchant: There is no denying how individually brilliant Wilson has been in 2024 (and this is without accounting for her performance in the Olympics as Team USA’s best player en route to a gold medal). But we’re talking about “most valuable player,” not “most outstanding” or “peak statistical performer.” So when the Aces are currently outside of the WNBA standings’ top four and not on track to host a first-round playoff series, I no longer think Wilson is providing the most value of any player in the league.

Pickman: Before getting into why Wilson is still my pick, here’s a reminder that the official WNBA MVP ballot only says to vote five candidates in order of preference with No. 1 being the top choice. There is no specific definition for the award.

Merchant: We can look back at the history of the award to see what types of players have generally won. And here’s something that stands out: Since 2008, only one player has won MVP without being on one of the league’s top two teams. That was Elena Delle Donne in 2015 for the Chicago Sky, who had the league’s third-best record. Otherwise, every MVP has garnered that award by helping lead her squad to one of the WNBA’s best records, something Wilson won’t be doing.

Pickman: This year seems likely to be an exception then. It still remains a bit puzzling to me that the Aces have struggled as much as they have since the Olympic break, dropping four of their first six games with one of those wins coming on a Wilson buzzer-beater to top the Sky. Nevertheless, what stands out to me is how Wilson compares to other top contenders. According to Basketball Reference, the difference between her win-shares (8.6) and the league’s No. 2 player (Breanna Stewart, 6.6) is the largest between the top two players since 2019. In HerHoopStats’ win-shares metric, the difference between Wilson and Stewart is slightly smaller. Yet Wilson’s 1.8-point lead over Stewart is still the largest since 2016. She’s providing ample value, even with the Aces’ inconsistency.

GAME WINNER A’JA WILSON 😤

🎥 @LVAcespic.twitter.com/liSFgdnFzX

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) August 25, 2024

Merchant: Then again, win shares aren’t the end-all be-all of who wins MVP. Wilson had the highest total last year when she finished third in the vote and Stewart edged her in 2022, when the then-Seattle star finished second. In 2020, Courtney Vandersloot had the highest win-share total but was a distant fourth on the ballot, earning one of 47 first-place votes.

Back to this season, Wilson is a perfectly deserving candidate. It’s unlikely anyone will come close to approaching her statistical resume over the final quarter of the season. But I tend to vote for players who elevate the team around them, and that makes Napheesa Collier an especially compelling candidate. Collier is averaging 21.1 points, 10 rebounds and 2.1 steals (fourth, third and second, respectively, in the WNBA) for the Minnesota Lynx, who are 22-8 — four games clear of Las Vegas — and won the Commissioner’s Cup this season.

Pickman: Collier has undoubtedly had a great year and will find herself first-team All-WNBA when awards are announced. But in this situation, I’d argue that the difference between Wilson’s individual greatness compared to that of her peers trumps any of the differences between the Aces and others. Among players with a usage rate greater than 25 percent, only Brittney Griner has a higher true shooting percentage than Wilson. More than that, however, of the 10 highest usage rates in WNBA history (a list Wilson is on with a rate of 32.1 percent this season), her offensive efficiency rating (120) is the highest. Teams know she is getting the basketball, and she still scores. Factor in Wilson’s defense, albeit with Las Vegas struggling on that end around her, and she is making the most of every opportunity.

Merchant: But Collier also has impressive individual stats. Her net rating is plus-13.6, which is more than triple Wilson’s 4. And it’s not merely a function of Collier being on a better team. When Collier is on the court for the Lynx, they are 16.9 points per 100 possessions better, while the Aces actually have a better net rating when Wilson sits. To be fair, there have been only 180 of those minutes, so it’s a small sample, but it’s reflective of Collier having a more positive impact on the Lynx’s success this season. She’s the anchor of an excellent defense and the highest-usage player on their offense.

Collier also had her MVP moment in a two-game sweep over Wilson and Las Vegas last week when she outplayed her frontcourt counterpart in both contests, even single-handedly outrebounding the Aces in one game. Singular moments aren’t the most important factor in Collier’s case, but it helps that she raised her level against her biggest competitor for the award.

Personal 7-0 run for Napheesa Collier early in the 1Q 😮‍💨

📺 Lynx-Mystics on CBS pic.twitter.com/ZQxDe93zhE

— WNBA (@WNBA) August 17, 2024

Pickman: You certainly make a convincing case for Collier, and the race has undoubtedly closed from even two weeks ago when I wrote that the biggest question about Wilson’s MVP candidacy was not whether Wilson would win the award, but whether it would be a unanimous vote. But even you wrote just a few weeks ago that, “The WNBA can start creating this trophy for Wilson right now as she joins the three-timers club of Lauren Jackson, Lisa Leslie and Sheryl Swoopes.”

Those two games, plus the Aces’ recent struggles have made the race more competitive, but it’s hard to overlook just how prolific Wilson was in the first half of the season and say the race has swung that much.

Merchant: I’ll have to take the L on that comment for now, but with Wilson, I think a third MVP will come sooner than later.

Nevertheless, for 2024, if Minnesota manages to pull into the top two while Las Vegas remains in fifth, Collier will get my vote. I’ve always believed that winning should be rewarded, and when a team has fallen short of expectations to the extent of the Aces, everyone deserves some culpability, including its leader.

Pickman: I think we’re both acknowledging this is now more of a conversation than it once was (though Wilson would still be my pick if the season ended today). But if we’re going to say more players should be in the conversation, does anyone but Collier deserve a mention?

Merchant: Let’s start with the defending MVP Stewart. She hasn’t been quite as good as last season, while Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones have been markedly better. That trio is going to cannibalize votes. Similarly, Alyssa Thomas, who got the most first-place votes in 2023, hasn’t been quite as productive this season — it would be unbelievable for a player averaging 11.2 points per game to win MVP.

Since there’s no definition to what MVP means, on a broader scale, has any player actually been more valuable to the league than Caitlin Clark? She won’t win the award, but there’s a way to frame the award that points to Clark, who has revitalized a franchise and brought an enormous wave of energy to the WNBA.