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WR Jayden Reed (ADP: WR44)
There is a chance Reed’s ADP becomes more bearish due to reports of him continuing to sit out 2WR sets, but that’s always been his role, and he’s produced back-to-back top-30 seasons to start his career. While I’m high on Matthew Golden, I think Reed benefits from Golden’s arrival because Golden (plus a healthy Jordan Love) should restore Matt LaFleur confidence in dialing up more passing plays after Love dipped from 34.2 attempts per game in 2023 to 28.3 last season. Love quietly posted top-five marks in yards per attempt (8.0) and QBR (69.3) last season, so I’m not expecting LaFleur to have any hang-ups in regard to passing volume this season.
After posting top-25 finishes in 9 of 16 (56.3%) games as a rookie on 5.9 targets per game, Reed saw his receiving volume dip along with the rest of the team, posting a top-25 finish in only 6 of 17 games on 4.4 targets per game. However, a large chunk of Reed’s underperformance came in two games Love missed and two others in which he was knocked out early. In Jordan Love’s 13 healthy starts, Reed finished as a top-25 WR at a 46.2% clip, a top-36 WR at a 61.5% clip, and a top-41 WR at a 76.9% clip on a modest 4.8 targets per game.
Reed’s stellar underlying metrics in each of his first two seasons – 2.05 yards per route run (22nd among WRs) in 2023, 2.20 (17th) in 2024 – coupled with a likely increase in passing volume for one of the most efficient passers in the league make Reed a high-upside, low-risk proposition at ADP, regardless of whether or not Golden breaks out in Year 1.
WR Matthew Golden (ADP: WR46)
Golden’s ADP will likely creep up as reports have come out of camp that Golden started alongside Romeo Doubs in 2WR sets. In that setup, Golden would be the favorite for targets, as rookie first-round WRs have averaged 19.8% targets per route over the past 10 seasons, which eclipses the career rates of Doubs (19.2%), RB Josh Jacobs (18.9%), TE Tucker Kraft (14.0%), and TE Luke Musgrave (14.0%). When the Packers go three-wide, Golden would still be the best bet to be the No. 2 target behind Jayden Reed (21.3%).
The Packers never seemed intent on making D’Ontavion Wicks anything more than a rotational WR4 when Christian Watson was healthy, but as per usual, Watson (ACL) is not healthy, and Golden is a player they deemed worth more draft capital than Watson and every other WR on their roster. Golden was initially thought to be in a crowded WR depth chart, but if he continues to run as a starter in 2 WR sets, he’d likely be the favorite to edge Reed for the team lead in targets overall.
Jordan Love finished fifth in YPA (8.0) and sixth in TD rate (5.9%) in an injury-marred season and sits at 7.5 YPA and a 5.5% TD rate for his career. He shouldn’t have his entire WR corps going outside the top 40. Golden’s ADP is more likely to overcorrect if he breaks a big play in preseason, but I’d still want him anywhere I can get him as my WR4.
TE Colston Loveland (ADP: TE13)
Loveland’s ADP became depressed with news of him undergoing offseason shoulder surgery in January, but he was cleared just before camp.
Given that Loveland was drafted over Tyler Warren, it’s clear that new head coach Ben Johnson was in search of a full-time tight end. When the Lions drafted Sam LaPorta 34th overall in 2023, Johnson utilized him on 83% of offensive snaps in Year 1, and he went on to post a then-rookie-record 86 receptions for 889 yards and 10 TDs.
The fact that Johnson spent the 10th overall pick on Loveland with Cole Kmet already on the roster signals that Kmet is viewed as nothing more than Johnson’s version of Brock Wright, and that there probably was something to Caleb Williams hitting the mute button on Kmet to the tune of just eight of 195 routes over the final six weeks of the season. Kmet is likely a bigger threat to fellow rookie Luther Burden III at slot receiver in the form of more 2TE sets.
Loveland has top-three overall upside as a rookie. Given the question marks in the ba
