2025 WNBA Finals: Aces vs. Mercury schedule, prediction, players to watch

The matchup for the 2025 WNBA Finals, which will be the first best-of-seven series in league history, is set, and will feature the No. 2 Las Vegas Aces against the No. 4 Phoenix Mercury. The Aces entered the season with expectations of contending after their early playoff exit last season, but got off to a disappointing start. 

They were still below .500 in late July and lost by 53 points to the Minnesota Lynx on Aug. 2. That historic defeat spurred their incredible late-season turnaround, and they closed the regular season on a 16-game winning streak to earn the No. 2 seed. In the playoffs, though, the Aces have not looked so dominant. They needed all three games to defeat the Seattle Storm in the first round, and all five games to get past the Indiana Fever in the semifinals. 

No one was sure what would happen with the Mercury this season after their complete overhaul in the winter. Franchise icons Diana Taurasi (retirement) and Brittney Griner (free agency) departed, and only two members of their 2024 squad returned. They brought in Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally to form a big three with Kahleah Copper, but had a largely untested supporting cast. Their regular-season campaign was choppy at times, in part due to injuries, but they proved they could be a real threat thanks to their top-tier talent. Likewise, their playoff run has been a roller coaster, but they’ve taken out the reigning champion New York Liberty and top-seeded Minnesota Lynx. 

This is the third Finals appearance in the last four seasons for the Aces, who are seeking their third championship in franchise history. The Mercury, meanwhile, are in the Finals for the first time since 2021, and trying to win a fourth title, which would move them into a tie with the Lynx, Seattle Storm and now-defunct Houston Comets for the most all-time. 

The Aces opened as a slight favorite to win the title (-122 on FanDuel). Here’s everything you need to know about the 2025 WNBA Finals:

2025 WNBA Finals schedule

Game 1: Mercury at Aces (-2.5), Friday, Oct. 3 | 8 p.m. ET — ESPN/fubo (Try for free)Game 2: Mercury at Aces, Sunday, 3 p.m. ET — ABC/fuboGame 3: Aces at Mercury, Oct. 8, 8 p.m. ET — ESPN/fubo Game 4: Aces at Mercury, Oct. 10, 8 p.m. ET — ESPN/fuboGame 5*: Mercury at Aces, Oct. 12, 3 p.m. ET — ABC/fubo Game 6*: Aces at Mercury, Oct. 15, 8 p.m. ET — ESPN/fuboGame 7*: Mercury at Aces, Oct. 17, 8 p.m. ET — ESPN /fubo

*If necessary

Players to watch

Aces: A’ja WilsonThe four-time MVP and three-time Defensive Player of the Year has had a few shaky moments this postseason, particularly against Aliyah Boston and the Fever in the semifinals, but her performance in Game 5 of that series was unbelievable. Wilson has always been the driving force behind the Aces’ success in recent years, but now, more than ever, they are extremely reliant on her offense. Through the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Aces are 4-1 when Wilson has at least 25 points and 1-2 when she doesn’t get to that number. 

Mercury: Alyssa ThomasThey call Alyssa Thomas “The Engine” for a reason. The 12-year vet never slows down, and has taken the Mercury to the Finals in her first season with the club. Though she once again fell short of MVP, she may lift the most important trophy for the most time in her career if she can keep playing like she has this postseason. Thomas is averaging 18.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, 9.1 assists and two steals through the first two rounds. The only other player to average at least 18/8/8 during a playoff run? Thomas in 2023. 

Three keys to the series

Can the Mercury slow down Wilson?During the first two rounds of the playoffs, A’ja Wilson has scored 29.9% of the Aces’ points and taken 31.2% of their field goal attempts. Her 34% usage rate leads all players (min. 25 minutes played) in the postseason by a significant margin. The next closest is Kelsey Mitchell at 27.7%. 

Everything the Aces do runs through Wilson. If the Mercury can find a way to slow Wilson down, they’ll have a great chance to win this series. 

During the regular season, Wilson averaged 25 points, 15.7 rebounds and three assists against the Mercury, and though she only shot 45.1% across those three games, she got to the line for 32 free throws — an average of more than 10 per contest. 

The Mercury do not have a huge front line. The only player on their roster above 6-foot-4 is 6-foot-7 Kalani Brown, who has played three minutes in the playoffs. But what the Mercury lack in height they make up in physicality and determination. 

Natasha Mack, Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas are all extremely tough, and the Mercury’s perimeter players love to dig and swipe at the ball any time it comes near the paint. The Mercury are only allowing 20.6 attempts per game inside five feet in the playoffs, and opponents are shooting 56.9% on those looks. Among the eight playoff teams, the Mercury rank third and fourth, respectively, in those categories. 

There figure to be two big questions in regards to the Mercury’s efforts to contain Wilson

How much contact will the referees allow?Can the Mercury keep her away from the rim and turn her into a jump shooter?

Officiating has been a major talking point throughout the playoffs, and no team has been more physical than the Mercury. And yet, the Mercury have only been called for 13.9 fouls per game. No other team in the postseason is below 15 per game. If the Mercury are allowed to knock Wilson around, that will be to their benefit. But if the officials call the game tight and Wilson gets to the free throw line like she did in their regular season matchups, that’s advantage Aces. For what it’s worth, Wilson’s 7.3 free throws per game are tied for the most of any player in the postseason. 

Wilson is the most dominant offensive player in the league, and capable of beating opponents from any point on the floor. However, she’s significantly more efficient around the rim than anywhere else. In the regular season, she shot 70% in the restricted area, compared to 45% in the mid-range. Similar story in the playoffs, as she’s made 61.5% of her rim attempts and 41.5% of her mid-rangers. If Wilson is rampaging to the rim, the Mercury have little hope, but if they can wall up and force her to pull up for jumpers, they’ll have a chance. 

Will Nate Tibbetts adjust his starting lineup?The Mercury were forced to use a number of different starting lineups during the regular season due to injuries, but their primary unit was Monique Akoa Makani, Kahleah Copper, Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas and Natasha Mack. During the regular season, that group was very good. During the playoffs, they’ve been a disaster. 

Here’s a look at the starters’ splits between the regular season and postseason: 

Regular season

99.0

88.4

+10.6

Playoffs

82.9

105.7

-22.9

Even during the regular season, this group’s offense was shaky. In the playoffs, its lack of shooting has been exposed. Neither Mack nor Thomas look at the basket outside of 12-15 feet and Akoa Makani, who shot the ball well on low volume in the regular season, has really struggled in the playoffs. And even at their best, Sabally and Copper are streaky from behind the arc. 

The Mercury’s starters cannot score, and to make matters worse, they’ve been getting torched on the other end — in part because opponents are rarely having to play against a set defense. 

While the Mercury have made some incredible comebacks this postseason, that’s only been necessary because their starters keep digging a hole. The Mercury have a minus-8.1 net rating in the first quarter and a minus-6.8 net rating in the third quarter during the playoffs. On the other hand, their second quarter net rating is plus-17.6 and their fourth quarter net rating is a staggering plus-23.8 — the best of all eight postseason teams. 

The Mercury’s second-most used lineup this postseason behind the starters features the Big Three of Thomas, Sabally and Copper with Sami Whitcomb and DeWanna Bonner in place of Akoa Makani and Mack. That group has a plus-21.8 net rating over 55 minutes. 

All of which begs the question, why not just start that latter group in the first place? If Tibbetts wants to keep the same starters for morale purposes, he should, at the very least, have a shorter leash. The Mercury have stole a few games in this run with miraculous fourth quarters, but they may not get so lucky in the Finals. 

Can the Aces force turnovers?Here are a few stats through the first two rounds of the playoffs:

The Mercury are first in turnover rate (15%)The Mercury are first in opponent points off turnovers (12.1)The Mercury are first in defensive rating (92.2)The Aces are first in opponent turnover rate (19.2%)The Aces are first in points off turnovers per game (19.1)The Aces are first in percentage of points off turnovers (22%)The Aces are first in offensive rating (108.9)

In summary, the Mercury have been the best defensive team in the playoffs, in part because they take care of the ball and don’t give up easy points off turnovers, while the Aces have been the best offensive team in the playoffs, in part because they force a lot of turnovers that they’re able to turn into easy points. 

Something will have to give in the Finals. 

For what it’s worth, when the two teams (who were both fully healthy at the time) met in late August, near the end of the regular season, the Aces won by 22. They forced 14 turnovers in that game, which they turned into 21 points — nearly exactly the margin of the game. 

Prediction

This is a tricky matchup to pick. 

The Aces have the best player and home-court advantage, but they’ve gone the distance in both of their previous series and almost lost to a Fever team that by overtime of Game 5 was without Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell, Aliyah Boston, Sophie Cunningham and Aari McDonald. 

The Mercury took out last season’s finalists in succession in the first two rounds and have their own MVP candidate, but have gotten a lot of injury luck — Breanna Stewart, Leonie Fiebich, Napheesa Collier and DiJonai Carrington were all either out or wounded during their series — and needed multiple historic comebacks to get to this point. 

We also don’t know how the first ever best-of-seven series will impact proceedings. It’s not surprising that the bookies don’t seem to have a firm grasp on what will happen either. The Aces are -130, while the Mercury are +110 to win the title, per Caesars. In other words, this is a toss-up, with a slight lean to the Aces due to home-court advantage. 

It’s admittedly difficult to pick the Aces after watching them almost lose to the extremely shorthanded Fever, but they have the best player, home-court advantage and the championship experience and know-how to come through in late-game situations. That will make the slightest difference in the end. Pick: Aces in 7