2025 WNBA Finals predictions: Expert picks for Aces vs. Mercury as Phoenix tries to pull upset

The 2025 WNBA Finals will get underway Friday with Game 1 between the Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury. For the first time in league history, the Finals will be a best-of-seven series, up from the best-of-five format that has been in use since 2005. 

The Aces, who won it all in 2022 and 2023, are looking for their third title in the last four years. The Mercury, who are back in the Finals for the first time since 2021, are hoping to lift the trophy for the fourth time in franchise history, which would bring them into a tie with the Minnesota Lynx, Seattle Storm and now-defunct Houston Comets for most titles in league history. 

Will the Aces’ dynasty continue, or will the Mercury join rarified air? We put the question to our panel of experts. Here’s what they had to say. 

No. 2 Aces vs. No. 4 Mercury

Series odds (via Caesars): Aces -130, Mercury +110

Gibbs: Mercury in 7. I did not think that the Mercury would get past the first round, so it’s hard for me to believe that I am picking them to win the championship, but these playoffs have been full of surprises. The Mercury have wowed me this postseason, and I truly believe they would have beat the New York Liberty even if Breanna Stewart was healthy throughout the series and the Minnesota Lynx if Napheesa Collier was healthy throughout the series. Their Big Three of Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper have been gelling, their head coach Nate Tibbetts has seriously impressed me and their supporting cast of veterans like Sami Whitcomb and DeWanna Bonner have shown up when it mattered the most. Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Aces did not look the least bit convincing in the first-round over the Seattle Storm or the semifinals against the Indiana Fever. The Aces will have their moments — A’ja Wilson can cover up many sins — but I ultimately just think the Mercury are a better team top to bottom right now. The first best-of-seven Finals will be a memorable one.

Gonzalez: Mercury in 7. Las Vegas knows how to turn up the heat, but right now the hottest team is Phoenix. Although the Aces’ 17-game winning streak was impressive, they struggled against opponents they were expected to easily take care of. Meanwhile, Phoenix got through the defending champion New York Liberty and the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx by embracing the underdog mentality. The confidence, energy and aggressive style of play the Mercury bring every night shows how locked in and hungry they are. 

Maloney: Aces in 7. The Aces have the best player and home-court advantage, but they’ve gone the distance in both of their previous series and almost lost to a Fever team that by overtime of Game 5 was without Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell, Aliyah Boston, Sophie Cunningham and Aari McDonald. The Mercury took out last season’s finalists in succession in the first two rounds and have their own MVP candidate, but have gotten a lot of injury luck — Breanna Stewart, Leonie Fiebich, Napheesa Collier and DiJonai Carrington were all either out or wounded during their series — and needed multiple historic comebacks to get to this point. 

We also don’t know how the first ever best-of-seven series will impact proceedings. It’s not surprising that the bookies don’t seem to have a firm grasp on what will happen either. The Aces are -130, while the Mercury are +110 to win the title, per Caesars. In other words, this is a toss-up, with a slight lean to the Aces due to home-court advantage. It’s admittedly difficult to pick the Aces after watching them almost lose to the extremely shorthanded Fever, but they have the best player, home-court advantage and the championship experience and know-how to come through in late-game situations. That will make the slightest difference in the end.