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In what is the final WNBA poll of the season, what once were runaway awards are coming down to the wire with 10 games or fewer remaining.
Paige Bueckers ran away with Rookie of the Year as most shops stopped offering odds over a month ago, while Alyssa Thomas and A’ja Wilson have made late pushes to upend with Napheesa Collier to be the MVP.
The Most Improved Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year are likely to come down to the final game or two of the season. Let’s take a look at the odds and updated race according to DraftKings odds.
WNBA MVP Ladder:
1. Napheesa Collier (-225)
2. Alyssa Thomas (+350)
3. A’ja Wilson (+550)
Napheesa Collier (-225) has been out since August 2nd and now missed four straight games and seven overall this season. Despite Collier being out, Minnesota hasn’t missed a beat going 6-1 without Collier and 22-4 with her.
Alyssa Thomas (+350) has triple-doubled in four of the past six games and five times this year as she continues to push toward her first-ever MVP. Thomas averages 16.2 points, 9.1 assists, and 8.6 rebounds, in addition to 2.2 steals + blocks per game (missed 5 games this year).
No one expected the 33-year-old Thomas to shine this bright in her 11th season, but she’s making her case stronger by the day, especially the more Collier sits.
While A’ja Wilson (+550) has closed the gap to become the obvious third choice — she is not worth a bet at her price. Wilson and Caitlin Clark not winning MVP are the best outcomes for sports books, and I’d have to say Thomas is likely a top-five liability with Collier being such a heavy favorite early on.
WNBA DPOY Ladder:
1. A’ja Wilson (+100
2. Gabby Williams (+400)
3. Napheesa Collier (+600)
Napheesa Collier (+600) missing the last four games and maybe a fifth-straight doesn’t help her Defensive Player of the Year odds, but it has assisted A’ja Wilson (+100) and Gabby Williams (+400) to climb the ranks.
A DPOY and MVP season for Collier would be truly historic but that’s looking less and less likely day by day. Williams leads the WNBA in steals per game (2.4) and has at least one steal in 32 of 35 games and two-plus steals in 25 of 35 games. Not to mention, Williams hasn’t missed a game all season for the Storm, something that Wilson and Collier cannot say.
It’s starting to feel like Williams came out of nowhere, but she has been steady top-five for this award over the last two months and was considered a longshot or sleeper throughout the whole process.
Wilson has the on-and-off the court splits to support her argument and she leads the WNBA in combined blocks and steals per game, but the Aces don’t have that overall defense that would warrant another DPOY for Wilson. I could be wrong and the market says so, but If I was to make a bet — I would look at Williams at +400.
WNBA MIP Ladder:
1. Allisha Gray (+200)
2. Azura Stevens (+600)
3. Veronica Burton (+300)
I believe this is a two-player race with Allisha Gray (+200) and Azura Stevens (+600) as the main competitors despite Veronica Burton’s (+300) rise with Golden State as a likely playoff team.
Gray continues to gain support in this market as she scored 22-plus points in four of seven games to start August and double-doubled once. Gray has increased her points (+3.0), rebounds (+1.1), and assists (1.1) on 2.2 more minutes per game and 1.3 more FGA/FTA per game.
Stevens’ odds took a hit in the previous game after she posted six points and two rebounds over 29 minutes in a loss to the Mystics. Stevens does have five games of 15-plus points in the last eight contests but has only double-doubled once in the past 13 games.
I think this is Gray’s award to lose despite Stevens’ raising her career-best in points per game from 11.5 to 14.4 this season. None of Steven’s other per game stats have rivaled the rise across the board for Gray in the limited added playing time.
Vaughn Dalzell’s WNBA Futures Bets:
2 units: Golden State Valkyries to miss the playoffs (-125)2 units: Stephanie White to win Coach of the Year (+115)2 units: Minnesota Lynx to win Championship (+340)2 units: A’ja Wilson to win MVP (+225)2 units: Napheesa Collier to win DPOY (+200)2 units: Napheesa Collier to win MVP (+150)
1 unit: Allisha Gray to win MIP (+400)0.5 unit: Napheesa Collier to win MVP (+300)0.5 unit: Jonquel Jones to win DPOY (+3000)0.5 unit: Angel Reese to win DPOY (+2000)0.5 unit: Aliyah Boston to win DPOY (+3500)0.5 unit: Kamila Cardoso to win DPOY (+5500)0.5 unit: Kayla Thornton to win MIP (+400)0.5 unit: Brittney Sykes to win MIP (+250)0.5 unit: Aliyah Boston to win MIP (+1500)0.5 unit: Kamila Cardoso to win MIP (+3000)0.5 unit: Seattle Storm to win the Championship (+2500)
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