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Much has been made about the three big offensive pieces that have been changed over in Seattle. As far as three names leaving, three names coming in, I don’t think there’s an argument against the Seattle Seahawks having the most name-brand movement across their franchise this offseason. A quarterback and two starting receivers is no joke.
But how will it play out? Did the Seahawks get better or worse on offense, or is it a push?
Here’s the raw 2024 stats:
Geno Smith
70.4% completion, 4,320 yards, 21 TD, 15 INT 7.5 Yards per Attempt, and an Approximate Value from Pro Football Reference of 12. Bonus: 4 game winning drives
Completed Air Yards = 2,139 / On Target 81.8%
Sam Darnold
66.2% completion, 4,319 yards 35 TD, 12 INT7.9 YPA, and Approximate Value of 14. Bonus: 5 Game-winning drives
Completed Air Yards = 2566 / On Target 77.7%
DK Metcalf
108 targets / 66 receptions / 992 yards. 5 Touchdowns, a 61.1% Catch Rate, and 9.2 Yards per Target.AV = 7
Cooper Kupp
100/67/710 6 TD, a 67% Catch Rate, and 7.1 Yards per Target.AV = 6
Tyler Lockett
74/49/600 2 TD, a 66.2% Catch Rate, 8.1 Yards per Target.AV = 5
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
87/38/822 8 TD, a 45% Catch Rate and 11 Yards per Target.AV = 3
Valdes-Scantling is such a hilarious player. A touchdown every four and a half completions.
Yes, yes, this is the basic volume stuff, not epa/play, etc etc. Yes, one might reasonably claim Geno Smith had a down year (I would), as did Metcalf.
Total
You can see the quarterback numbers are pretty straightforward. A total of one yard passing difference between the two, with Darnold’s TD/INT ratio being significantly better.
On the receiving end, 182 targets just walked out the door. Arriving are two players who saw 187 targets last season. Lockett and Metcalf hauled in 1552 yards and 7 TD on 115 receptions, while Kupp and MVS secured 1532 yards and 14 TD on 105 receptions. Total Approximate Value out the door was 24, AV coming back is 23.
That’s uncanny.
Nearly identical stats from the three different players on offense, with a slight boost to touchdown production for the new fellas.
This is not to say the trades will result in a complete wash, offensively. Nor is it definitive that the Seahawks improved (or regressed) this offseason. But in the wake of Ben Solak despising Seattle’s offseason, I found it interesting how the 2024 statistical output wouldn’t prove they’re going to fall off a cliff.
Even still – would an identical 2024 offense get it done next season?
