WNBA: Draft lottery stakes for Wings, Sparks, Mystics and Sky

On Sunday, Nov. 17 (5 p.m. ET, ESPN), the Los Angeles Sparks, Dallas Wings, or Washington Mystics will win the 2025 WNBA Draft Lottery and earn the No. 1 pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft. The Chicago Sky are also participating in the lottery; however, because the team traded pick swap rights to the Wings to acquire Marina Mabrey in 2023, the Sky’s chances effectively belong to Dallas.

That consequential transaction gives the Wings, now under the leadership of new general manager Curt Miller, the best odds of landing the No. 1 pick at 45.4 percent. The Sparks, Miller’s former team, claim the second-best odds at 44.2 percent. The Mystics have a long shot of securing the top pick at 10.4 percent. The expansion Golden State Valkyries are not included in the lottery; the WNBA’s newest franchise will have the No. 5 pick.

While UConn redshirt senior guard Paige Bueckers is expected to be the prize for whichever franchise earns the right to pick first in the 2025 draft, the class projects to be a deep one, as our Eric Nemchock already has emphasized.

Here’s a brief look at what’s a stake for the three teams that could win the No. 1 pick, as well as what having a lottery pick means for the Sky:

Dallas Wings (45.4 percent)

As head coach of the Sparks, Miller encountered little luck, as his team dealt with an inordinate amount of injuries during his two-season stint in LA. Winning the draft lottery less than two weeks after being hired as Dallas’ new general manager would suggest Miller’s luck will have shifted, with the basketball gods blessing him with the right to select Bueckers.

Building a perennial contender for a franchise that has struggled to establish any sort of consistency certainly would be easier with Bueckers on board. She and Arike Ogunbowale would form quite the fearsome backcourt. Her arrival also might make it easier for Miller to convince impending unrestricted free agent Satou Sabally to re-sign with the Wings, along with luring more players from a stacked free agent class to Texas.

Los Angeles Sparks (44.2 percent)

Photo by Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images

If LA lands the No. 1 pick, they suddenly would sport one of the league’s most promising, complementary young cores, with Bueckers in the backcourt, Rickea Jackson on the wing, and a hopefully fully-recovered Cameron Brink in the post. After several lost seasons, the Sparks would begin to reclaim the sense of exceptionalism that has defined pro basketball in Los Angeles.

LA also would surround their young trio of stars with a veteran core, highlighted by 2024 All-Star Dearica Hamby. Hamby, Azurá Stevens, and Steph Talbot all signed extensions during the 2024 season. In a league that could see much upheaval this offseason, the Sparks’ relative continuity, albeit infused with a new head coach and young star, could set up the team to exceed expectations in 2025.

Washington Mystics (10.4 percent)

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