Game of the week
Minnesota Vikings (14-2) v Detroit Lions (14-2)
The final game of the regular season and it all comes down to this. Two titans battle for the NFC North crown, home-field advantage until the Super Bowl and the ivory tower of a first-round bye. The loser takes the fifth seed and a stomach-churning road game in the wild-card round.
Detroit’s injury-hit roster needs the winner’s rest week more but will this be one title fight too many for Dan Campbell’s team? The Vikings certainly feel like they have the edge on a nine-game winning streak, yet six of those were by a one score with four by three points or fewer. If there is one offense that can keep pace with an electric opponent in a shootout, it is Jared Goff and his indomitable Lions.
What the Vikings need to do to win: Minnesota must stop Jahmyr Gibbs. The running back is a critical part of Detroit’s success. In his two most recent games, since David Montgomery’s season-ending injury, Gibbs has excelled with an increased role earning 100 or more rushing and 40 or more receiving yards in both. The only other game he hit this mark: a 31-29 win over the Vikings in October.
It is vitally important for Minnesota’s defense and specifically elite linebacker Blake Cashman to set edges and overwhelm Gibbs in space. His cuts and shifts in momentum are deadly if allowed to develop. The numbers bear this out. He has 23 rushes of 15 or more yards, second to Saquon Barkley with 25, with 118 fewer attempts than Philadelphia’s MVP contender. Gibbs is also the first player since 2018 to average 2.5 yards per carry before contact and five after contact in the same year.
What the Lions need to do to win: Detroit need to keep Jameson Williams’ hot streak going. In the past two weeks, against Chicago and San Francisco’s single-high safety looks, Williams has had two of his best days in the NFL, earning 143 yards and a touchdown then 77 and another score. “That’s the potential that Jameson [Williams] has to this offense and it’s a beautiful thing to see a post versus single-high like that,” Ben Johnson said of Williams after victory over the Bears. “It does our offense wonders going into the end of the season here and into the postseason to put that type of stuff on tape.” The Lions would be wise to keep sending Williams deep to stretch Minnesota’s coverage, which would open up catching lanes for Gibbs underneath. This manipulation is essential to find any soft spots in Brian Flores’ excellent defense.
Detroit’s Jared Goff was named Thursday as the starting quarterback for the NFL Pro Bowl Games. Photograph: Stephen Maturen/Getty Images
Rising: Mike Evans
How do you summarise the brilliance of Mike Evans? The mind wanders to the once-great swimmer in that Guinness advert racing against time, the champion who – with a little help from his mate – always hits his mark. The swimmer’s glory days have faded, yet his adoring public still turn out en masse to watch him beat the clock year after year after year. He is inevitable. Only that comparison does the 31-year-old a disservice as the Carolina Panthers can attest – specifically Caleb Farley.
“But I’m getting older,” Evans says. “One day I’ll lose.” Don’t worry. Baker Mayfield knows the score. There is no need to run a route when you can casually lean on your 6ft 5in frame to first smack the sense out of a defender, then outjump his flailing efforts for a one-yard touchdown. Another irrepressible afternoon racked up another 97 yards receiving, he now has only 85 to go for an incredible 11th successive season with over 1,000 total. All while missing three games with a hamstring injury.
Every Bucs fan’s fingers will be crossed for the big man, though Tampa Bay’s need to knock over New Orleans to make the postseason may eradicate much of the mysticism. Make sure to catch his victory lap on Sunday.
Falling: Denver Broncos
How Sean Payton would like to rerun the latter stages of Denver’s defeat to the Los Angeles Charges in December. Since appearing to be sailing into the playoffs midway through the third quarter, leading 24-13, the Broncos and specifically the defense have come up short. LA rattled off three touchdowns without reply to force another win and in game against the Bengals. The defense then continued their wretched streak by failing to force a single punt in regulation against Cincinnati.
One of the league’s best units playing themselves out of form mixed with Sean Payton’s game-losing conservative play calling has placed Denver under a whole heap of pressure. They now must beat a Kansas City Chiefs team most likely with Carson Wentz playing quarterback. On paper this sounds easy enough, but while Andy Reid is still in control of the game script this is going to be anything but for Denver. The Miami Dolphins or, somewhat unbelievably, the Bengals themselves after struggling for large swathes of the season could sneak into the playoffs if they win, and the Broncos continue to play with a serious case of FOMO.
Race for No 1 draft pick
Cleveland, New York Giants, Tennessee, New England. After taking what should have been an unshakeable hold of the top pick, Drew Lock conspired to win the New York Giants out of contention. Now, going into a final week the NFL’s rum quartet all share a 3-13 record though the New England Patriots select first as it stands on strength of schedule. There is a slim chance of them moving out of top spot though as they face the Buffalo Bills, who intend to use a “blend” of starters and backups.
Tennessee, Cleveland and the Giants, picking in that order as it stands, face Houston, Baltimore and Philadelphia respectively. If the Texans continue to bottom out as they did on Christmas Day then the Titans have every chance of winning. It could be the Browns who benefit as the Ravens have to win to make sure they claim the AFC North. It would represent another hopeful chance for Cleveland to hasten the process of moving on from the Deshaun Watson era by picking a rookie quarterback. Unfortunately, Watson will still be on the team next year after restructuring his contract to change the cap hit from $73m to $37m in 2025. The logic is shifting the hit into the future when the cap is larger will be less painful for the franchise so they can spend on free agency now. How the Browns navigate having the quarterback on the roster for two seasons while essentially asking him not to go near the team remains to be seen. Both moves are necessary evils in a sorry saga that may find a path toward closure.
