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On Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs face the Buffalo Bills for the AFC Championship and a trip to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans. We welcome Matt Byham of Buffalo Rumblings — our sister SB Nation site covering the Bills — for Five Questions with the Enemy.
1) Safety Taylor Rapp appears to be the biggest injury concern for the Bills this week. What would his absence mean for the Bills’ defense, and what they do well?
As of publishing, Rapp has been downgraded to “out” for Sunday. That’s not ideal for the Bills, obviously. He’s a monster hitter and tackler, but that sometimes comes as a detriment to his availability and those around him. As for what that means defensively, it all falls on Damar Hamlin and most likely rookie safety Cole Bishop (and potentially Kareem Jackson). Hamlin has blossomed this season as a more complete player who confidently diagnoses and communicates to his teammates.
I wonder if, should Buffalo struggle without Rapp, they might pivot to a 3LB look, bringing in Dorian Williams while sliding nickel cornerback Taron Johnson back to safety. It’s unlikely to happen since it’s more of a wishlist item of mine.
Losing Rapp doesn’t necessarily negate what the defense does well: that is playing sound fundamental football that maintains gap integrity while constantly looking to force a turnover.
Professional athletes always preach “next man up.” This team takes it seriously and their depth prepares as any starter would.
2) Buffalo delivered key turnovers against Baltimore, but they also never forced a Ravens’ punt, and Baltimore was in position to tie the game late. What are the weaknesses of the Bills’ defense at this point in the year?
Up until last weekend, their biggest weakness was stopping the run. Though Henry had a decent game, his rushing total was less than the yards he gained taking the football for six on the first play in Week 4.
Since it’s the playoffs, I’ll point out the team’s legacy weakness of failing to generate meaningful pressure along the defensive line. Top to bottom from edge rushers, to well-rounded defensive end, and the interior linemen, the common theme has been Buffalo’s defensive line disappearing in big games. I see that as one of the main keys for the Bills this weekend: Can they generate enough of the right pressure on Mahomes?
Another area of concern for me is pass defense against tight ends. For whatever reason, it always seems a though TEs find their way open with plenty of YAC. Even last week, when Terrel Bernard popped the ball out of Mark Andrews’ grip, I was lamenting how open he was to initially make the catch.
3) In the first meeting, Buffalo used an efficient passing day by Josh Allen and a few key big plays with his legs to seal the win. How do you see Buffalo attacking the Chiefs’ defense in round two?
I don’t expect a script identical to last weekend, but I believe offensive coordinator Joe Brady is going to remain focused on setting the tone in the trenches, and leaning on running backs James Cook, Ty Johnson, and rookie Ray Davis early. If successful, it eats away the clock and keeps the offense on the field.
Though that may not make for the most exciting matchup, it’s clear teams have struggled to stop Buffalo’s offense when the run game is working. Should that happen, I then expect to see Josh Allen begin taking advantage of a defense forced to play more honest trying to stop the run.
How does that look? Allen is likely to begin distributing the football around the yard, focusing on matchups rather than players. He’ll take the underneath stuff and live for the next down. Then in the red zone, he’ll work to leverage muscle memory in finding the opportunities where few quarterbacks have proven capable.
Having said that, we could just as easily see something similar to what unfolded for the Bills against both the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions. That may be especially true if running the football is difficult for either/both teams.
4) Who is a player on offense and defense who has really stepped up since these teams last saw each other?
Running back Ty Johnson has become a real X-factor as a dual-threat player who Josh Allen describes as “the best third-down back in the league.” I’d argue that in Buffalo’s offense, Johnson has featured-back potential.
Johnson has some of the most reliable hands you’ll find with a running back, and he’s faster than James Cook. Every time Johnson’s number is called, he produces. That’s key because he so seldom is given an opportunity to establish in-game rhythm.
Defensively, it’s for sure Damar Hamlin. When Hamlin’s injury occurred, he was largely an unknown football player outside of Bills Country. Prior to the accident, there were enough people wondering if he needed to cede snaps to other safeties.
Then upon his return, Hamlin wasn’t given a ton of snaps at safety even though the team’s stalwart tandem of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer were athletically on the decline in their final seasons together. Many wondered if Hamlin was destined to be a backup / role player.
In training camp last summer, Hamlin’s name drew plenty of buzz, but this time for his play. Safety was such a major concern heading into the season — likeliest the biggest for people outside of One Bills Drive. Hamlin won the competition and hasn’t looked back. He’s not the most athletically gifted football player you’ll ever find, but that’s true of most safeties.
When he gives up ground or a big play unfolds, doubters come back out of the woodwork saying he’s too slow, and more. Similarly to Rapp, few hit with the tenacity of Hamlin — and when he’s on, he’s a productive tackler.
5) The Chiefs are currently a 1.5-point home favorite, though few would call a Bills’ win an upset. If the Bills finally overcome the Chiefs, what will have gone right on the field?
Everything we digest about this matchup tells us it’s Mahomes vs. Allen. But maybe that’s not the case on Sunday. It sure feels like this game is going to come down to defense. To win, yes, Josh Allen needs to play like the guy everyone’s seen face the Chiefs. But unlike seasons’ past, Allen doesn’t have to do it all.
Had anyone said that to begin the season they’d be swiftly rebutted. That after Allen (and maybe those who recognize o-line play), Buffalo was bereft of talent. Khalil Shakir as the only returning wide receiver who had built any chemistry with QB17; a pair of starting tight ends who also had such chemistry, but whose use was questioned.
Plus, losing Hyde, Poyer and more on defense, plus wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis — and the venerable Mitch Morse at center. This was a team predicted to be no better than third in the AFC East.
Anyone watching closely knew that Allen could do it all when it was required of him, but most didn’t see how well his leadership would translate to a reformulated team. The short of the long here is that Josh Allen has manifested this season, helping raise the level of play among everyone around him — and you can look no further than the precipitous drop in turnovers.
This team has a throwback feel about it — as in those years before NFL Free Agency hit. They play for one another, and leave negative individual ego traits at the door.
So what has to go right on the field for the Bills to win at Arrowhead this Sunday? Everything.
Be sure to check out the answers I gave to their questions by clicking here.
