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The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.
Last week, for the second year in a row, BBWAA voters elected a trio of players to the Hall of Fame, namely first year candidates Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia, plus 10th-year candidate Billy Wagner. Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones both finished within 10 points of election as well, setting themselves up for 2026. With that in mind, it’s time to look ahead to what the next five ballots have in store.
This is the 12th time I’ve broken out my crystal ball in such a manner, dating back to the wrap-up of my 2014 election coverage at SI.com. As of last year, I’ve now done this more times at FanGraphs than Sports Illustrated. That first edition was so long ago that candidates still had 15 years of eligibility instead of 10, and so I could afford to project Tim Raines for election in 2018, his 11th year of eligibility. The Hall’s unilateral decision to truncate candidacies to 10 years would come just months later, though thankfully voters accelerated their acceptance of Raines, who was elected in 2017.
This exercise has always been more art than science, requiring some amount of imagination and speculation. Changes to the election process over the past decade have rendered some of my research into the candidates, as well as the history and mechanics of the voting, less useful for prognostication purposes. The dynamics of Hall candidacies have certainly changed, as evidenced by the elections of slow-starting candidates such as Wagner. From 1966 to 2005, only three candidates recovered from debuts below 25% and eventually reached 75%, even with 15 years of eligibility: Duke Snider (17.0% in 1970, elected in ’81), Don Drysdale (21.0% in 1975, elected in ’84) and Billy Williams (23.4% in 1982, elected in ’87). With Wagner’s election, seven players have made it to 75% since 2006 despite such slow starts, including five in the past decade. From the 15-year eligibility period came Bruce Sutter (23.9% in 1994, elected in 2006) and Bert Blyleven (17.5% in 1998, elected in 2011), and then once the eligibility window was shortened — less to clean up the ballots than to try moving the intractable debate over PED-related candidates out of the spotlight, and give voters less time to soften their attitudes — Raines (24.3% in 2008, elected in ’17), Mike Mussina (20.3% in 2014, elected in ’19), Larry Walker (20.3% in ’11, elected in ’20), Scott Rolen (10.2% in 2018, elected in ’23, the lowest debut share of any modern candidate elected by the writers), Todd Helton (16.5% in 2019, elected in ’24) and now Wagner (10.5%). With 7.3% in 2018 and 66.2% this year, Jones has a real shot at not only joining this group but at supplanting Rolen.
Revising this annually is a necessity because I am routinely wrong, sometimes happily so, as in those instances where I’ve underestimated how quickly a given candidate might gain entry. Circa 2019, I estimated that David Ortiz would need until ’23 to gain entry, and didn’t foresee Rolen getting elected within five years. A year later, I projected Rolen to gain entry in 2025. In 2022 and ’23, I projected Joe Mauer for ’25 election. On the other hand, in 2019 and ’20 I still believed — albeit with some caveats — that Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling stood at least some chance of election before their window closed. Regardless of which direction it goes, every incorrect assumption has a ripple effect. The presence of a high-share holdover means less space for and less attention paid to the mid-ballot guys, so clearing one from the ballot can have ramifications that won’t be felt for a few years; likewise, a more rapid election than predicted can accelerate other candidates’ timelines.
For the sake of this exercise, I am assuming that the basic mechanics of these elections will remain in place: 10 votes per ballot, with a 5% minimum to avoid falling off, and 10 years of eligibility for new candidates. Note that each ballot’s year refers to the year of induction; that ballot is released in November of the previous year, with ballots due on December 31. To be eligible, a candidate must not have played in the majors for five full seasons, but his eligibility year will actually be six years after his last appearance.
2026
Top newcomers: Cole Hamels, Ryan Braun, Alex Gordon, Shin-Soo Choo, Edwin Encarnación, Nick MarkakisTop holdovers: Beltrán, Jones, Chase UtleyMost likely to be elected: BeltránFalling off: Manny Ramirez
The 2020 season left us short in many areas, including the retirement department, perhaps because few players wanted to end their careers following such a strange campaign. From this group, Braun owns the highest WAR (47.1) of any position player. Braun made six All-Star teams, won the NL Rookie of the Year and MVP awards, and hit 352 homers, but he was caught violating MLB’s drug policy twice. The first time, an arbitrator overturned his suspension, that after Braun publicly smeared the sample collector — alleging anti-Semitism — in an unparalleled bit of ugliness within the annals of baseball’s efforts to fight PEDs. Countless players have denied knowledge of how illegal substances got into their bodies, and some (Rafael Palmeiro comes to mind) tried to cast blame elsewhere, but nobody else took a page from the Lance Armstrong playbook by trying to ruin the reputation of an innocent bystander in such a manner. The second time Braun was caught, as part of the Biogenesis investigation, he served a 65-game suspension. He’s nowhere near as strong a candidate as Ramirez, who will be in his final year, or Alex Rodriguez. By now it’s pretty clear that Hall-wise, anyone who was suspended isn’t getting to Cooperstown anytime soon.
In the wake of multiple comeback attempts that didn’t even reach the competitive stage due to the ongoing shoulder woes that had limited him to one game since 2019, Hamels finally announced his retirement in August 2023. In his 15-year career, he made four All-Star teams, spun one complete-game no-hitter and did the heavy lifting of a combined one, and won a World Series while helping the Phillies to another pennant as well. His 48.2 S-JAWS ranks 71st, 0.1 point and two spots below two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana, who went one-and-done on the 2018 ballot and isn’t even eligible for an Era Committee ballot until 2032. In terms of S-JAWS, Hamels is slightly ahead of Mark Buehrle (47.4) and Andy Pettitte (47.2), and solidly ahead of Félix Hernández (44.1), who drew 20.6% in his debut this year. Hamels didn’t win a Cy Young, but his 123 ERA+ is six points better than Hernández in about 32 fewer innings. He also has a very good postseason résumé (3.43 ERA in 100.1 innings) and was the MVP of both the NLCS and World Series in 2008. Of the starting pitchers on next year’s ballot who don’t check all the boxes the way the Hall of Fame starters of previous generations did, his is the candidacy I have the easiest time getting on board for, Hernández included. We’ll see where that goes.
Encarnación, with 424 homers and some big postseason moments, might seem to have a case as the next designated hitter after Ortiz. His career didn’t really take flight until his late 20s, however, and his 35.5 WAR is about 20 fewer than Ortiz, plus he hit just .216/.324/.360 in the postseason overall. It’s not happening for him any more than it is for Choo, Gordon, or Markakis, who fell 622 hits short of 3,000, finally laying a perennial hypothetical question to rest.
With no newcomers likely to be elected, this is a golden opportunity for Beltrán, who appears to have overcome the initial resistance to his candidacy created by his involvement in the Astros’ electronic sign-stealing scandal. In his third year of eligibility, he gained 13.2% to reach 70.3%. As noted in my candidate-by-candidate breakdown, 22 of the past 26 candidates to reach 70% and still have eligibility remaining were elected the next year, the exceptions being Jim Bunning and Schilling twice apiece, the former due to bad timing but the latter entirely by his own spectacular (un)doing. Jones has a shot as well after receiving 66.2% this year, but he’s gained just 8.1% over the past two cycles. Candidates receiving between 65% and 70% with eligibility remaining have been elected the next year just 14 of 31 times since 1966, but 22 out of 31 times within two years; Wagner (68.1% in 2023, 73.5% in ’24, elected in ’25) followed that latter path. As for Utley, who jumped from a 28.8% debut to 39.8% in 2025, he’s got a very good shot at getting to 50% here.
2027
Top newcomers: Buster Posey, Jon Lester, Brett Gardner, Kyle Seager, Ryan ZimmermanTop holdovers: Jones, Utley, Pettitte, Hamels, HernándezMost likely to be elected: Posey, JonesFalling off: Omar Vizquel
Posey’s sudden retirement at age 34, after his strongest offensive performance in at least half a decade, left him with just 1,500 career hits, but his seven All-Star appearances and three championships, not to mention MVP, Rookie of the Year, and Gold Glove awards and a 129 OPS+, make for a full enough résumé for Cooperstown. All that’s missing is watching him break down, and who really needs to see that? By JAWS, his 36.6 peak score is tied for ninth all-time, nearly two full wins above the standard, and that’s without considering the impact of his elite pitch framing. He’s fifth in our version of the metric covering the 2009–21 span of his career and second in that of Baseball Prospectus. In both, he’s just ahead of Yadier Molina, who caught roughly twice as many innings (though only 44% more in the window covered by our metric). What’s more, he’s third in my Framing-Inclusive JAWS (frJAWS) behind only Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez, ahead of Mauer, Russell Martin (sigh), and Molina. Even given the brevity of his career, I believe he’ll join Mauer, Rodriguez, and Johnny Bench on the ridiculously short list of catchers elected on their first ballot.
Of the other newcomers, the one who will generate significant discussion is Lester. With his 200 wins, three championship rings, and big-game reputation (9-7, 2.51 ERA in 154 postseason innings), his candidacy will get some attention, but his 43.4 WAR is about 15-17 WAR lower than the Pettitte/Buehrle/Hamels trio of holdovers, and he’s 153rd in S-JAWS, 98 spots (and 12 points) below Sabathia and just 12 spots above Jack Morris. Gardner, Seager, and Zimmerman each spent their careers with one franchise and deserve their spots in the hearts of fans, but none had the value, the accomplishments, or the staying power to make a dent in Hall voting.
This is where Vizquel drops off the ballot. Allegations of multiple incidents of domestic violence against his wife and sexual harassment of an autistic batboy led to him setting a modern record with a 25.2% drop on the 2022 ballot, from 49.1% to 23.9%. He’s lost further ground since, while embarking upon a PR campaign that lacked any hint of introspection or accountability. His situation is without parallel in the annals of Hall of Fame voting, but it’s now abundantly clear he’ll remain a lower-tier candidate through his remaining eligibility, unable to regain the ground or the respect that he lost.
The back-to-back ballots lacking in obvious choices (aside from Posey) will open an opportunity for all kinds of holdovers who have hung around in the lower reaches to take steps forward. By this point, Utley should be above 50%, and some of the others who have generated less heat — Pettitte in his ninth year, Bobby Abreu in his eighth, maybe even Jimmy Rollins in his sixth or Dustin Pedroia in his third — might be pushing towards the 40% range, which could create some appeal as an Era Committee candidate. Likewise for Hernández and Hamels, though they could even have enough time to hope for bigger things from the writers… eventually.
2028
Top newcomers: Albert Pujols, Robinson Canó, David Price, MolinaTop holdovers: Utley, Pettitte, Hamels, HernándezMost likely to be elected: Pujols, MolinaFalling off: Pettitte
Though he spent more than nine years of his 10-year, $240 million deal disappointing in Anaheim, Pujols enjoyed a strong finish to his 22-year major league career, pushing his home run total to 703 (fourth all-time), his hit total to 3,384 (10th all-time, and the most by a player born outside the United States), and his career WAR back into triple digits (101.7), while making his 11th and final All-Star team during a victory-lap season in St. Louis. While it won’t erase all the memories of his diminishing returns, going out on a high note should goose Pujols’ share of the vote into the high 90s.
The celebration may well help Molina get to 75% by riding his coattails. A 10-time All-Star and nine-time Gold Glove winner, he earned a reputation as one of the best at handling pitchers, both in terms of framing and game-calling. We have metrics to back up the first of those assertions, in that he’s third in our version of framing runs dating back to 2008 (152) and fourth in BP’s version, which goes back to 1988. As for the second, we have a lot of anecdotes as well as the fact that he was a part of 13 playoff teams, the starter on two World series winners and one more pennant winner, but we don’t have a real means of quantifying that value in runs. He’s just 22nd in JAWS among catchers, well below all but three Hall of Famers, but as with Martin, McCann, and Posey, I don’t think off-the-shelf JAWS is the right thing to use; as noted above, I have him fifth in frJAWS. Combine that with the industry consensus of his future in Cooperstown and I think he’ll have enough momentum to get in.
An eight-time All-Star who collected 2,639 hits and 335 homers, Canó ranks seventh in JAWS among second basemen, but his Hall of Fame chances are as dead on arrival as those of Ramirez and Rodriguez given his two PED suspensions, an 80-gamer in 2018 and a full season in ’21. He’ll get enough support to stick around the ballot, though.
As a former Cy Young winner (and two-time runner-up) who made five All-Star teams, pitched for nine playoff teams, and helped the Red Sox win a championship in 2018, Price certainly packed a lot into his 14-year career. Elbow problems and the pandemic limited him to just one 30-start season past his age-30 campaign, however, leaving him with 157 wins, a 123 ERA+, 40.1 WAR, and the no. 180 ranking in S-JAWS. Even with some adjusted expectations for starters in the coming years, I suspect that’s too low to merit much consideration.
This will be Utley’s fifth year on the ballot. As noted in my post-election coverage, he received a higher share of the vote in his first year (28.8%) than Rolen and Helton combined — and both were elected in their sixth year. Both of those players grew their shares of the vote against the backdrop of some lean years for newcomers, whereas Utley’s tenure looks more crowded. As for Pettitte, after a slow start to his candidacy, I expect he will finish somewhere in the 40-50% range, positioning himself to draw interest via the Era Committee process.
2029
Top newcomers: Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Zack Greinke, Evan Longoria, Josh Donaldson, Adam Wainwright, Nelson Cruz, Corey Kluber, Madison BumgarnerTop holdovers: Utley, Hamels, Hernández, Pedroia, BuehreMost likely to be elected: Cabrera, Votto, GreinkeFalling off: Abreu
Like Pujols, Cabrera struggled for most of the period covered by his big contract (eight years and $248 million from 2016–23), but even so, he became the seventh player to reach the dual milestones of 3,000 hits and 500 home runs after Henry Aaron, Willie Mays, Eddie Murray, Palmeiro, Rodriguez, and Pujols — elite company. He’ll sail into Cooperstown easily.
As for the rest of the list of newcomers, it’s gotten considerably longer since my last version of this exercise, as several notable players wound up either not pursuing jobs in 2024 or not making it back to the majors. After a 17-year run in Cincinnati, Votto signed with the Blue Jays and went yard in his Grapefruit League debut on March 17, but then rolled his right ankle upon returning to the dugout and was sidelined for nearly three months. After scuffling while rehabbing at three minor league stops, he retired in mid-August. While his 2,135 hits and 356 home runs might look light for a first baseman, he’s a former MVP, a six-time All-Star, and a seven-time on-base percentage leader whose .409 OBP and 144 OPS+ are exceptional. His 55.7 JAWS ranks 12th, 2.2 points above the standard at the position and 1.5 points ahead of Helton. Ballwriters love them some Joey Votto, so I think he’ll make it on the first ballot.
The same is true for Greinke. While he didn’t return in 2024 to collect the 21 strikeouts he needed to reach 3,000, I suspect that shortfall bothers me more than it does him; this is a man who said he didn’t want the “hassle” of a no-hitter, so you can imagine what he thinks about milestones. His 225 wins and 121 ERA+ are impressive, as is his 62.9 S-JAWS, which ranks 25th all-time between Hall of Famers Fergie Jenkins and Tom Glavine, with Max Scherzer two spots and 1.4 points below him.
Longoria and Donaldson are two third basemen who had exceptional seven-year peaks (41.9 for the former, 41.7 for the latter) but are short of the JAWS standard at the position. Longoria was the Rays’ lineup center piece for a decade, a former Rookie of the Year who made three All-Star teams and won three Gold Gloves. Had he done more upon leaving the Rays than produce just 7.5 WAR from ages 33–37 for the Giants and Diamondbacks, we’d be talking about him as Cooperstown material; his 50.3 JAWS is a respectable 19th but about three to five points below the likes of Graig Nettles, Ken Boyer, Buddy Bell, and Sal Bando. Donaldson, a converted catcher, didn’t have 300 plate appearances in a season until age 27; he made three All-Star teams, won an MVP award, and placed third in the AL in WAR three straight years (2013–15), but he fizzled out at age 37, that after becoming one of the game’s most unpopular players for calling Tim Anderson “Jackie.”
Cruz spent 19 years in the majors with eight different teams, playing past his 43rd birthday. Along the way he made seven All-Star teams, played for seven squads that reached the postseason, and clubbed 464 home runs with his boomstick, topping 40 three times and leading the league once. For all of that, he totaled just 42.2 WAR while spending more than half of his games as a DH, and for as widely respected as he was throughout the game, his 2013 PED suspension will doom his chances here.
Unlike Pujols and Molina, the 41-year-old Wainwright chose to return for one more season, but it turned into an absolute slog due to age and injury. He finished with a 7.40 ERA and -2.0 WAR — and that was after winning his final two starts to reach an even 200 for his career. Given his four top-three finishes in the Cy Young voting and his role in helping the Cardinals to nine playoff appearances and two World Series, it might be a surprise that he ranks just 133rd in S-JAWS at 40.6, comparable to Bartolo Colon and Brad Radke (both 40.8). He pitched just 2,668.1 innings, however, missing all of 2011 due to Tommy John surgery, all but seven appearances in ’15 due to surgery to repair a torn Achilles tendon, and all but eight appearances in ’18 due to elbow inflammation. He banked four seasons of at least 6.0 WAR, but the other three seasons rounding out his peak score feature WAR totals of 4.0, 3.5, and 3.0 (including offense). I think he’ll linger on the ballot, but he’s a significant cut below Hamels and Hernández.
Kluber won two Cy Young awards, but between his late start and a slew of injuries, he threw 100 or more innings in a season just seven times, totaling 1,641.2 innings and 116 wins. Bumgarner helped the Giants win three World Series and put together an 8-3, 2.11 ERA line in 102.1 innings in the postseason, but his regular season numbers (134 wins, 110 ERA+, 32.5 WAR) are unremarkable, and he netted -0.5 WAR in his 30s after leaving the Giants.
Previously I figured this might be the year for Utley, but with Votto and Greinke both apparently in the mix, this ballot is too crowded up top. I think he’ll be well set up for 2030.
2030
Top newcomers: Elvis Andrus, Charlie Blackmon, Brandon Crawford, Kevin KiermaierTop holdovers: Utley, Hamels, Hernández, Pedroia, Buehre, LongoriaMost likely to be elected: UtleyFalling off: Buehrle
Barring a sudden and likely injury-driven decision to retire from Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, or some other star, this is looking like an exceptionally weak first-year class, with players whose one-and-done valedictories are as far as they’ll get. Kiermaier won four Gold Gloves and accumulated 175 DRS and 36.5 WAR – not to mention one hell of a highlight reel — but he didn’t even rack up 1,000 hits or 100 homers. Crawford, who helped the Giants to two championships and two other playoff appearances, made three All-Star teams and won four Gold Gloves, but his 54 DRS and 29.4 WAR won’t keep him around the ballot. Likewise for Andrus, who helped the Rangers to two World Series and five postseason berths. He had more WAR than Crawford (34.2) but just an 86 OPS+ and two All-Star appearances, and he never won a Gold Glove.
Blackmon, the most recent Rockies player to win a Coors Field-assisted batting title (he hit .391 at home and .331 overall in 2017), had some big years while making four All-Star teams, but his defensive metrics in center field were pretty bad (-54 DRS in 692 games) and he was barely a league average hitter in the last half-decade of his career. He’ll take his place alongside Carlos González and Troy Tulowitzki among the Rockies’ recent one-and-done stars.
Kershaw (212 wins, 2,968 strikeouts, 156 ERA+) is a three-time Cy Young winner who ranks 21st in JAWS but is coming off a season in which he threw just 30 innings. Right now, it appears that he plans to return to the Dodgers, but given his issues staying healthy, and how stacked their rotation is, you just never know. Likewise with Scherzer (216 wins, 3,407 strikeouts, 133 ERA+), a free agent job-seeker who threw just 43.1 innings last year and who turns 40 on July 27. Both would be easy first-ballot selections if they never threw another pitch, though we’ll be delighted if they return in 2025, even if only to give us a chance for a proper goodbye.
This, I think, will be Utley’s time. With the exception of A-Rod, everybody else who might still be on the ballot has polled no higher than Hernández’s 20.6% thus far, so it’s difficult to project any of them as having real momentum, but I would expect the conversations will continue regarding Pedroia and Hamels.
Leaving aside the highly speculative suggestion that Kershaw and/or Scherzer could be done, that’s nine players elected over the next five years, down one from last year but matching the total I projected from 2021–25 half a decade ago, and one more than was actually elected over that span.
Beyond the numbers, the end of Pettitte’s candidacy in 2028 will close the door on the Wild West era of PED usage as far as the BBWAA is concerned. The remaining PED-linked candidates either currently on the ballot or scheduled to debut, namely Ramirez, Rodriguez, Braun, Canó and Cruz, were all suspended at least once. If one counts the leaked results of the survey test and Braun’s arbitration turnover, all but Cruz were connected to PEDs multiple times, removing the excuse that they merely made one-time mistakes. That won’t end every debate about their suitability, but it will make the writers’ jobs a little easier and could improve the tenor of the conversation around the ballot.
My track record in this exercise is shaky enough to know that I haven’t gotten everything correct. The fun (hopefully) is in watching all of this unfold and depart from the script. Go back to my 2021–25 projection, which included Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, and Vizquel getting elected over that span; while each has proven too unsavory to pass muster with the writers for one reason or another, their fades have been offset by some pleasant surprises, such as Sabathia’s first-ballot entry and the aforementioned holdover candidates rallying from sluggish early showings — none of which I predicted in 2020. If I’ve learned nothing else from 20-plus years of following Hall of Fame elections, it’s that they retain the capacity to surprise us.
