Brittney Griner to Atlanta is a Pitch Perfect Match » Winsidr

Over the course of 11 seasons, 315 games, 9,567 minutes played, and 5,572 points played, Brittney Griner has done it all.

If Diana Taurasi is the Batman for the Phoenix Mercury franchise, it’s hard to argue that Griner isn’t the Robin.

Griner is synonymous with the Mercury, as it’s the only franchise she has played for since being drafted No. 1 overall out of Baylor in 2013.

Until now.

News broke Tuesday evening that the nine-time WNBA All-Star was going to be signing with the Atlanta Dream, per ESPN’s Shams Charania and Alexa Philippou, ending her tenure with the Mercury.

Griner confirmed as much on her Instagram Tuesday night, appearing on a boat in Miami with her new teammates, Jordin Canada, Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray.

On a day that saw the Mercury acquire Alyssa Thomas (and Ty Harris for Rebecca Allen, Natasha Cloud, and the No. 12 pick in the WNBA Draft, per Next Hoops), the WNBA landscape continues to shift.

This time, it’s Atlanta who is making the big move as it continues to reshape its team after a first-round exit in the playoffs last season at the hands of the New York Liberty by adding Griner and Bri Jones, who is expected to sign with the Dream, as well.

So why Atlanta for BG?

We haven’t heard officially yet, but with the hiring of long-time Florida Gulf Coast University coach Karl Smesko, it’s not hard to put the pieces together.

After the Dream relieved Tanisha Wright of her coaching duties after a second straight first-round playoff exit, the Dream had a goal; they must improve on offense.

In 2024, the Dream had the worst surface-level offense in the league, averaging 77 points per game, with the second-slowest pace (80.5). But where they really struggled was with their efficiency, as they posted a league-worst 45.2 eFG%.

And from what we know about Smesko and his innovative offense, he stresses efficiency above all with his Above The Line (ATL 👀) approach to the game.

Smesko has emphasized getting efficient looks from behind the three-point line, quick shots, spacing, drives to the bucket and easy layups.

Smesko refers to his offense as “share and stretch” – sharing the ball, stretching the floor and creating space.

“We move the ball. We move people, but we do it with the thinking of how we can create more space for the ball, particularly our attackers and advantage creators,” Smesko said on A Quick Timeout Podcast.

How does Griner fit that puzzle? We are getting there.

In 2024, the Dream shot 30.8 percent from behind the arc, averaging 19.4 attempts per game. Of those 19.4 per game, 13.2 of them came from two players: Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray.

The high-volume, high-efficiency looks from behind the arc that Smesko wants is covered with the two All-Star players, but what the Dream have struggled with is finding an inside presence.

Tina Charles balled out in 2024. Don’t get it twisted – especially so for a player who was uncertain if she was going to play in the WNBA again.

But the Dream recognized early on in the 2024 season that they weren’t going to get a repeat of the All-Star season that Cheyenne Parker-Tyus had in 2023, moving her to the second unit and opting to go with a combination of Nia Coffey and Naz Hillmon at the four with Charles playing the five.

When the Dream went with a Howard, Gray, Charles, Hillmon and Jordin Canada lineup, the combo had the fifth-best net rating in the league among lineups that played at least 15 games together.

Good, right?

Well, if we are looking at what Smesko is stressing – efficiency – it was the third-worst five-person lineup in the league. And if you swap out Canada for Haley Jones, that lineup was the fifth-worst using the same parameters.

And this, this is where Griner comes in. Because among players who played at least 30 games last season, Griner ranked No. 6 in eFG% at 59.1 – the highest mark of her career.

What Griner will also help establish is an improved field goal percentage for the Dream in the paint. Last year, Atlanta, who was often oversized down low, shot 56.1 percent from inside of five feet, which ranked 11th in the league, only the Chicago Sky finishing worst.

The Mercury, on the other hand?

Sixty-four percent from the same distance – second in the league only to the New York Liberty.

Smesko, per The Athletic, watches film at 10 or 20 times faster, which should ease his transition and his offense to the WNBA more fluidly than normal. And with Howard and Gray being high-volume shooters who can also drive and pull-up in transition or off of a half-court set, they should flourish under Smesko.

But they will also help Griner flourish, creating the spacing that she needs to operate.

Griner averaged 5.2 shots per game from within five feet of the rim, and 3.9 shots within five to nine feet of the rim. She’ll rely on Howard and Gray to create that space, with Canada running the offense in a way to maximize each touch of every Atlanta possession.

The big question for Dream fans after the news broke was whether it would be Naz Hillmon or Nia Coffey sliding into power forward alongside Griner. Hillmon did an adequate job last year for the Dream, and Coffey gives the ability to stretch the floor a tad more, but neither player requires big involvement in the offense to make a difference.

The answer is, well, neither, as it’ll be 2022 WNBA Sixth Person of the Year Award winner, Brionna Jones. Jones is fantastic defensively and can switch with Griner on the defensive end. Offensively, though, it clogs things up a bit, and it will be interesting to see how the Dream deal with the potential spacing issues that Griner and Jones will bring in the paint.

Jones also operates within five feet of the rim frequently. She averaged 6.7 shots per game from inside of five feet of the rim – the fourth-most in the league in 2024.

With the system that Smesko is running, though, it allows the ability for two bigs to grab offensive boards and keep possessions alive with Jones and Griner both excelling on the glass. And when the defense collapses when Gray, Howard and Canada drive to the hoop, both Griner and Jones are able to be there for dump-off passes and open looks at the rim.

While Griner and Jones coming to Atlanta likely signals the end of the tenure of Charles in Atlanta, the pairing with Canada, Howard and Gray not only puts Griner in a position to succeed in the next chapter of her career. It also marks her first stop in the WNBA outside of Phoenix, and also puts Atlanta in position to have its first taste of playoff success since 2018.

All stats through the 2024 season. Unless otherwise noted, all stats courtesy of Basketball Reference