Which teams could shatter the ACC Championship dreams of Notre Dame and NC State?

A month ago, a preview of this tournament would probably have been titled: “Which ACC team will lose to Notre Dame by the least amount of points?” Parity finally breached the walls of the conference over the past few weeks, welcoming in a wave of postseason competition.

The ACC, like its fellow Power Four conferences, awards the top four seeds a double bye, affording them an automatic bid to the quarterfinals. That means that seeds No. 10 through No. 16 have to win five games in five days for a title, seeds No. 5 through No. 9 have to win four in four days and seeds No. 1 through No. 4 only have to win three. The top-seeded teams in the ACC will likely all be voted into March Madness, but an automatic NCAA Tournament bid will make the lesser teams even hungrier for an ACC title.

The frontrunners

Ranked No. 7 and No. 6 in the nation, respectively, NC State and Notre Dame, the conference’s top two teams, are well prepared to make a run at both an ACC and NCAA championship. The two met each other in late February, and the luck of the Irish ran short against a surging Wolfpack. Notre Dame dropped the following game against Florida State as well, displacing them from the top spot in the AP Top 25 poll. They still have a better overall record than NC State, but losing their head-to-head matchup meant losing the top seed in the ACC Tournament.

Seeding aside, NC State and Notre Dame have the strongest resumes in the conference. Both have concerning losses (NC State to Cal, Notre Dame to Utah), but neither has made a trend of losing. Notre Dame has trophy case wins over USC, UConn, North Carolina and Duke. NC State has been one of the hottest teams in the country, and their victory over Notre Dame suggests that they may have overcome their early-season struggles against ranked programs.

Both teams are also similar in one particular facet: lack of a game changing frontcourt. The Wolfpack and Fighting Irish are both guard-heavy teams, but their difficulties at the intersection of height and talent may not manifest until the NCAA Tournament. The ACC is not a league with a plethora of top center prospects. Mismatches won’t be common for the conference’s top two squads. March is always full of surprises, but NC State and Notre Dame feel head and shoulders above their counterparts.

The contenders

Ta’Niya Latson’s 25.4 points per game doesn’t just lead the ACC— it leads the nation. The 5-foot-8 junior guard has been lethal from everywhere on the floor and is shooting nearly 20 shots per game. A glance at Latson’s resume may actually suggest that No. 22 Florida State is an unreliable team because they live and die by one player, but that’s far from the truth. Three players are averaging over 16 points per game for the Seminoles, who end their season as the country’s top scoring team. Unfortunately, they rank 322nd in scoring defense out of 362 Division I teams.

No. 11 Duke is another team to watch, but they haven’t seen success against the aforementioned frontrunners. They ended the season on a high note with double-digit wins over Florida State and North Carolina, but they’ve played parallel to their expectations for the bulk of the seasons. They won the games they were supposed to win; they lost the ones they were supposed to lose. They’re on the better side of average, but they feel average nonetheless. I would go as far as to say that Duke’s five spot jump in the latest AP poll is an overreaction. The Blue Devils just don’t move me.

North Carolina rounds out the ACC’s top five. Like Duke, they’re a very solid team that doesn’t boast any extraterrestrial talents or tactics. They have a stifling defense that stays in front of drivers and contests shots, but they don’t force many turnovers and, therefore, their defense doesn’t often create easy offense. The Tar Heels play at the third-slowest pace in the conference. They’re comfortable in their style of play, and their defense has the potential to keep them in the game against any opponent.

The rest

I considered calling this section “the pretenders” to complete a nice rhyme with “the contenders”, but truthfully I don’t think any of these teams are even pretending to pose a threat to the top five of the ACC. The only lingering team that may have a claim to the “pretender” title is Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were one of the last undefeated teams after winning their first 15 games, but then proceeded to lose nine of their final 15 en route to a .500 conference record. Their only impressive win was a six-point victory at North Carolina. Their streak flatlined months ago, and Georgia Tech has lost their fearsome snarl.

Cal is a team that could certainly pull off an upset this week. The Golden Bears are a conundrum of experience. They’re led by four seniors, but none of the four have seen an NCAA tournament berth in their time at Cal. The team hasn’t made March Madness since former head coach Lindsay Gottlieb left in 2019, but they’ve finished their inaugural ACC season with the best overall record for the program since 2009. They have five players boasting double-digit scoring averages, and they shoot more 3s than anyone in the conference. If Cal can catch fire in Greensboro, they could pose a real threat to the conference’s top teams.

Louisville is the only other team that deserves to see their name in this preview, as much as I would love to see one of the conferences less-fortunate teams pull off some historic wins. Louisville thrives in the margins, crashing the offensive glass and jumping passing lanes in an attempt to hoard as many extra possessions as they can. Tajianna Roberts has been a pleasant surprise as one of the leagues most consistent but under-recognized freshman. The Cardinals don’t have a good track record against the top-seeded squads, but their effort is enough to bring the best out of any opponent.

ACC Tournament schedule

All games will be played at First Horizon Coliseum in Greensboro, NC.

First round — Wednesday, Mar. 5

Game 1: No. 12 Boston College vs. No. 13 Syracuse, 1 p.m. ET (ACC Network)

Game 2: No. 10 Virginia vs. No. 15 Pittsburgh, 3:30 p.m. ET (ACC Network)

Game 3: No. 11 Stanford vs. No. 14 Clemson, 6:30 p.m. ET (ACC Network)

Second round — Thursday, Mar. 6

Game 4: Game 1 winner vs. No. 5 North Carolina, 11 a.m. ET (ACC Network)

Game 5: No. 8 Virginia Tech vs. No. 9 Georgia Tech, 1:30 p.m. ET (ACC Network)

Game 6: Game 2 winner vs. No. 7 California, 5 p.m. ET (ACC Network)

Game 7: Game 3 winner vs. No. 6 Louisville, 7:30 p.m. ET (ACC Network)

Quarterfinals — Friday, Mar. 7

Game 8: Game 4 winner vs. No. 4 Florida State, 11 a.m. ET (ESPN2)

Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. No. 1 NC State, 1:30 p.m. ET (ACC Network)

Game 10: Game 6 winner vs. No. 2 Notre Dame, 5 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Game 11: Game 7 winner vs. No. 3 Duke, 7:30 p.m. ET (ACC Network)

Semifinals — Saturday, Mar. 8

Game 12: Game 8 winner vs. Game 9 winner, 12 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Game 13: Game 10 winner vs. Game 11 winner, 2:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Championship — Sunday, Mar. 9

Game 15: Game 12 winner vs. Game 13 winner, 1 p.m. ET (ESPN)