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If you follow me on social media, you know I’m an avid WNBA watcher. As someone who hosted WNBA and women’s college basketball coverage for ESPN beginning in 2013, I am thrilled to see the sport’s rising popularity. The quality of play has evolved exponentially, and for many other reasons, including Caitlin Clark, the league is here to stay.
On the betting side, sportsbooks previously implemented low betting limits to dissuade action because they feared only professional bettors wagered on the league. But now it’s a different animal. Menus and offerings have expanded, and house limits have increased, as the betting handle has started to match the rising fan interest.
Last summer, I posted a WNBA season of +116.63 betting units on a public website with daily tracking. While that was easily my personal best of any season of any sport, that number is highly unlikely ever to be matched. I believe in transparency, so it had to be said. Nonetheless, I am hoping for more continued success this upcoming season.
With games tipping off this week, I’ve outlined my favorite futures bets below.
Dallas Wings to miss playoffs (-120)
This time last year, numerous WNBA players, past and present, foolishly predicted a rude awakening for the Indiana Fever’s Clark. I mocked their ignorance and laughed while she earned First-Team honors in her rookie season. In 2023 (pre-Caitlin Clark), the Fever finished 13-27. In 2024, with her, they finished 20-20 and made the playoffs, ending a seven-year drought, and now, coach Stephanie White is at the helm.
Conversely, I believe the Dallas Wings’ new star rookie Paige Bueckers will experience growing pains this upcoming season, although she is too smart and skilled to struggle mightily. Still, the top overall draft pick lacks the speed and shooting ability off the dribble to dominate the WNBA as a rookie. Adjusting to the professional game takes time for most mortals; thus, there will be several losses before the wins start rolling in.
Arike Ogunbowale is certainly talented, but her erratic shot selection will still be an issue this upcoming season. At 6-foot-7, Teaira McCowan is a force but also has limitations. DiJonai Carrington and NaLyssa Smith are nice pieces, but Dallas no longer has two-time All-Star Satou Sabally. While Sabally only played 15 games last season due to injury, it’s still a huge loss.
Ultimately, I know most people expect a Bueckers bump, but it would take a massive jump for Dallas to make the playoffs, and I just don’t see it happening. This team finished 9-31 last year, and I think they are in for another long season.
Las Vegas Aces over 30.5 wins
Despite everything going wrong for the Las Vegas Aces last year, they still managed a 27-13 season. The new schedule has 44 games (an increase of four), and the stars are aligning for a bounce-back season.
It starts with reigning MVP A’ja Wilson. The league’s best player will dominate yet again and likely lead the league in scoring. The X-factor is Chelsea Gray being healthy. After missing the first month last year, she looked like a shell of herself nearly all season. Due to a domino effect, Jackie Young’s contributions also diminished, so I expect both to restore the production that helped win championships in 2022 and 2023.
Kelsey Plum battled a high-profile divorce and underperformed. She now gets a clean slate with the LA Sparks while being replaced by Jewell Loyd. The former scoring champ shot poorly the past two years, but I believe coach Becky Hammon can correct some issues and resurrect her prowess.
Hammon conceded that being a two-time defending champ took its toll on players with commercials and an increased spotlight, while also wearing the bullseye for opponents. Now we get a motivated team with championship mettle and new blood in Loyd.
Seattle Storm over 24.5 wins
For the first time in more than a decade, the Seattle Storm will begin a season without the aforementioned Loyd. However, in many ways, this is a case of addition by subtraction. Loyd shot just 36 percent from the field last year, 27.4 percent from downtown and struggled mightily on defense.
The Storm went 25-15 last season and can now lean into head coach Noelle Quinn’s preference for solid defense. They’ll also get a full season from Gabby Williams and the team brought in veteran Alysha Clark. The wild card is 19-year-old Dominique Malonga, whom Seattle drafted with the second overall pick. Her 7-foot-1 wingspan will strengthen a frontcourt that already includes elite defender Ezi Magbegor.
Veteran Skylar Diggins will lead a backcourt with Erica Wheeler and Lexie Brown. I really like how all these pieces complement one another, and Seattle always catches a few opponents in tough road scheduling spots. I see this squad pushing near 30 wins.
Washington Mystics under 15.5 wins
The buzz and optimism around the Washington Mystics sound great in the preseason, as new management and coaching staff implement a high-paced offense to spread the floor and rely on the 3-pointer. But reality will hit hard once games actually matter. The Mystics were 14-26 last year and lack the personnel and talent to notch many more wins this year.
Shakira Austin is their best player, but she played in less than half of their games each of the past two seasons. Even when healthy, she needs more help than the roster currently offers.
Sixth overall pick Georgia Amoore suffered a knee injury and is expected to miss the entire season. Third overall pick Sonia Citron should have a great first year (and thus her Rookie of the Year odds at +1400), but where else will the points come from? Stefanie Dolson and Brittney Sykes will have nice stretches, but this team will be overmatched in nearly every game.
Leans: Connecticut Sun under 11.5 wins, Chicago Sky under 13.5 wins, LA Sparks make playoffs -155
Doug Kezirian has 25+ years of television and sports betting experience, including spending over a decade at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He currently lives in Las Vegas, where he has demonstrated success in the field. In 2023 NFL contests, he tied for 14th place in the Circa Million and the Las Vegas SuperContest. In 2022, he had two top-10 finishes in William Hill’s college football contest. In 2021, he famously won $297K on an NFL Draft prop bet.
(Photo of Paige Bueckers: Same Hodde / Getty Images)
