Aljamain Sterling: ‘It’s a bad night’ for Charles Oliveira if Ilia Topuria finds his chin

Aljamain Sterling respects Ilia Topuria’s power and knows Charles Oliveira should do the same.

After being criticized early in his career for supposedly folding in the face of adversity, Oliveira reinvented himself as world champion able to absorb punishment and give it back tenfold. That has led to a number of highlight-reel finishes and post-fight bonuses for “do Bronx.”

He has a chance to regain the lightweight title on June 28 when he fights Ilia Topuria in the main event of UFC 317 for the belt left vacant by Islam Makhachev, who is moving up to welterweight (Topuria also recently vacated the featherweight title to pursue a second championship). When that day comes, Sterling isn’t sure Oliveira should resort to his berserker style if he wants to upset Topuria.

“This is interesting because Oliveira gets dropped every fight,” Sterling said on The Weekly Scraps podcast. “Just about every fight. The last eight fights, I would say. With that said, we know Ilia Topuria can crack. We’ve seen [Topuria] get dropped before by Jai Herbert, came back. That was the first time he fought at 155. He says he feels better at 155, his power is way different at 155. We know he can already crack at ‘45. What is that power going to translate into at 155 and if he can touch Charles the way he hits everybody else, I think it’s a bad night and Ilia’s a two-division champion.

“But the grappling department. We haven’t seen anyone force the grappling issue against Ilia and I wonder if do Bronx will try to do that to see if he can gas him out and take away some of the pop from his punches. That’s the big question mark.”

Oliveira is one of the most feared grapplers in MMA history. The 35-year-old has won 16 UFC fights by submission, a promotional record. He’ll also have a size advantage over Topuria, which brings an extraordinary level of intrigue to any in-close exchanges they may have.

Topuria has shown flashes of wrestling offensively and defensively while primarily relying on his striking to win fights. He knocked out Alexander Volkanovski to win the featherweight title and become the first fighter ever to defeat Volkanovski in a 145-pound bout, then he became the first fighter to knock out Max Holloway.

Given his legend-killing ways, Sterling wonders just how far Topuria can continue to climb up the all-time ranks.

“It’s hard to count out do Bronx,” Sterling said. “I still think he’s him. But then I said that about Max, I said that about Volk—and I’m not saying those guys were going to win against Ilia—but you say that those guys are still them and then Ilia goes out does that to them, you’re like, ‘Fuck… who’s stopping this guy?’”

Oliveira is just 2-2 in his past four fights, but prior to this stretch he rattled off 11 consecutive wins in the deepest division in MMA. On the other side, Topuria is yet to be defeated in 16 pro bouts.

Their matchup could be determined by who is able to impose their strongest discipline on the fight and Sterling expects that to be a persistent question for the full five rounds—or as long as the bout lasts.

“I’m leaning towards Ilia,” Sterling said. “I think that’s smart money. Of course, Oliveira can win, if he can grapple with him early, maybe he surprises us and shows us that Ilia can get tired and take off some of the sting of those punches, but then what does that look like for Oliveira in the later rounds?

“Can he keep his hands up and defend the right way, especially if he doesn’t get a finish? And how does he get the takedown? He’s got to close the distance to get the takedown, against a shorter dude, how are you doing that? You’ve got to get underneath him. It’s hard.”