Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC 316

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Bantamweight standouts Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix will throw down this weekend (Sat., June 7, 2025) inside Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey at UFC 316.

Bautista is getting too much hate for his controversial split-decision win over Jose Aldo. Sure, the fight was bad, and sure, the decision was iffy, but that Bautista is historically an all-action finisher. Is a rising contender not allowed one stinker in a dozen appearances? Merab Dvalishvili barely beat Aldo too, and that guy turned out to be a pretty good fighter!

As for Mix, it’s so nice to have a UFC signee who is not from Contenders Series or The Ultimate Fighter (TUF). Mix is a genuinely world-class Bantamweight with plenty of elite experience under his belt already, and an introduction straight into UFC Top 10 competition is both appropriate and exciting.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Bautista vs. Mix Betting Odds

Mario Bautista victory: +140
Mario Bautista via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Mario Bautista via submission: TBD
Mario Bautista via decision: TBD
Patchy Mix victory: -166
Patchy Mix via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Patchy Mix via submission: TBD
Patchy Mix via decision: TBD
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Bautista Wins

Bautista is a really well-rounded athlete who combines all his skills at a high rate. He transitions between his striking and wrestling smoothly, which really allows him to put a pace on his opponents and break their will.

What’s interesting here is that Mix is also rather well-rounded and good at mixing up (sorry) the different facets of MMA. Neither man would be particularly standout in a boxing match or wrestling singlet, but they’re excellent MMA fighters precisely because of their skills in the between areas that are uniquely MMA.

So … how to shift the odds in Bautista’s favor? He wants a grittier fight. Mix is at his best when able to play a smooth operator, timing shots at distance or expertly maneuvering from top position. Bautista has to get him reactive and keep him working, and the best way to do so might be a mix of boxing combinations and clinch work. Shooting on Mix in the opening is a dangerous game, but if Bautista is shoving his way into the clinch, breaking dirty with punches, then attacking legs, that could be a consistent recipe for success.

How Mix Wins

Mix is a jiu-jitsu ace first and foremost, capable of sweeping and submitting top-notch wrestlers. His kickboxing has come a particularly long way in recent years, however, as Mix has developed a rather nasty distance striking attack that has greatly increased the effectiveness of his whole game.

This match up will be a test of Mix’s ability to manage distance. Bautista is going to come at him, and Mix has to find a way to stymie that offense. Likely, his first response will be the reactive takedown. His takedowns are strong, but the problem is that Bautista has historically been rather difficult to hold down.

Will Mix’s BJJ pedigree be enough to buck that trend? If so, he’s in for a relatively easy night at the office. If Bautista is able to work back up in a reasonable amount of time, however, Mix’s intercepting strikes become vitally important. He cannot allow Bautista to bully him and gain momentum, but a well-timed knee, teep, or counter punch can help earn Bautista’s respect and settle him into a more measured pace.

If this bout becomes a question of slickness, the New York native is at a definite advantage.

Bautista vs. Mix Prediction

I’m a believer in Patchy Mix. I wouldn’t pick him against Merab Dvalishvili, but the fact that the two are longtime training partners surely helps here. Generally, I believe Mix to be a Top Five talent and a bit more skilled overall than Bautista.

That’s no guarantee of success, of course. The more skilled fighter loses in MMA all the time, because physicality and grit are formidable x-factors. Bautista fights with the kind of intensity that can overcome a skill gap, so I’m expecting a really competitive, back-and-forth affair.

I’ll still side with the man I believe to have a higher ceiling, but I do so tentatively.

Prediction: Mix via decision