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A’ja Wilson’s resume needs no sprucing up.
She’s a 3x MVP, a 6x All-Star, a 5x All-WNBA selection, a Finals MVP… the list goes on and on. Just this week, Wilson became the fastest ever WNBA player to reach 5,000 points. She’s established herself as the premier WNBA superstar of the decade thus far and the Aces have two championships to show for it.
This year has been different, though. Vegas sits at 7-8 on the season following a 94-83 home loss to the Washington Mystics Thursday night. Wilson, by her own remarkable standards, is having a down year as well. She’s certainly not the primary culprit for the Aces’ uneven season to this point, but it’s worth exploring the trends behind the slight regression from the reigning MVP.
She’s averaging 21.3 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists this season on 44% shooting. Wilson’s defense is still outstanding, but her scoring is down from 26.9 points last year, as is her overall field goal percentage from 51.8%. In fact, Wilson’s 44% mark from the field is currently the lowest of her career.
So, is Wilson simply missing more shots this year? That’s partly true. When you look at where Wilson is taking her shots from, there starts to be a clearer picture.
This season, Wilson has taken 193 shots. 30.6% of those shots have come from less than five feet. 31% have come from 5-9 feet, while 20.2% have come from 10-14 feet. So over 80% of her shot volume is coming from within 14 feet of the rim. That seems pretty normal for a player like Wilson.
However, Wilson is only shooting 30% on shots from 5-9 feet. That’s her lowest percentage from anywhere on the court. So in the range that accounts for her highest shot volume, Wilson is the least efficient.
When you compare this to previous seasons, Wilson shot 51% from the 5-9 foot range last season with 19.8% of her total shots coming from this area. The volume from this area has gone up, yet the field goal percentage has plummeted. Similarly, Wilson shot 43.2% from 10-14 feet last year. That number is down this season to 38.5%.
Wilson’s volume and efficiency from within five feet have been nearly identical to her MVP campaign last season. The disparity is coming from mid-range, and it’s not necessarily the efficiency that’s been the problem everywhere. Last year, Wilson shot 50.4% from 15-19 feet, with these shots making up 19% of her total chart.
This year, she’s connecting on 46.7% of these shots. Yet, she’s only taken 15 of them all season, accounting for 7.8% of her total volume. The efficiency is similar, yet Wilson has taken far fewer of these shots in favor of more in the 5-9 foot range.
The bottom line is Wilson’s mid-range shot has not been nearly as effective this season as it has been in the past. For whatever reason, she’s particularly struggling in that 5-9 foot range closer to the rim. She’s taken the most amount of shots in the part of the court that’s also been her least efficient.
In the range (15-19 feet) where she’s historically had a lot of success, Wilson’s taken fewer shots than usual. From three-point land, she’s also had a rough time. Wilson is connecting on just 20% of her threes, down 11.7% from last year. That’s with the volume of shots remaining nearly identical (1.7 attempts this year compared to 1.6 last year).
This all adds together to create a less efficient season than people expect from someone like Wilson. The overall numbers are still objectively solid, but Wilson’s created such high expectations for herself based on all of her past achievements.
Of course, Wilson is not the Aces’ main problem. They’ve struggled defensively, there’s a lack of depth from the bench, and Jewell Lloyd has not been a good enough replacement for Kelsey Plum.
After the loss to the Mystics, head coach Becky Hammon lamented her team’s inability to do the “basics.”
“If you look at a team like Golden State, who just tries hard every time. They play hard. You can win games, but it takes all five trying hard and competing,” Hammon said. “My frustration has been seeing greatness in moments and absolute disasters in moments and how there’s no in between.”
“It’s one way or the other. I just want solid, basic basketball,” she added. “When we’re talking about basketball basics… screen, box out. I mean, these are things they’ve been hearing their whole lives. And we do not do them well. You have to master the basics, and my team does not have them mastered.”
Hammon closed the press conference by saying, “That’s why we’ll continue to drown here in two feet of water.”
Those are harsh words from a head coach. Considering all the issues surrounding the Aces this year, Wilson will likely have to resume her MVP-form if the team has any chance of making a run this season. And, when you think about how good of a mid-range shooter Wilson has been historically, it wouldn’t be surprising if she’s able to right the ship in that area as the season goes along.
Wilson is still having a very good season, but not good enough to carry Vegas single-handedly on her back. If she is unable to reach those heights, there might not be enough support on this roster to get the Aces back to where they expect to be.
