WNBA best bets today: Saturday’s top WNBA plays include Valkyries vs. Lynx pick, Sparks vs. Fever player prop

After a day off for July 4th, the WNBA has two games on its Saturday, July 5 slate. The Indiana Fever will be without Caitlin Clark (groin) for a fifth straight game and will take on the Los Angeles Sparks at 7 p.m. ET on NBA TV. The Minnesota Lynx possess the WNBA’s top record at 15-2 and will host the Golden State Valkyries at 8 p.m. ET.

Do you have an interest in WNBA betting and WNBA player props at the best betting sites? Here are today’s WNBA best bets for Saturday, July 5. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Today’s WNBA picks:

Kelsey Plum Under 19.5 points -115 (1 unit, DK)Valkyries +9.5 -110 (1 unit, DK)

Kelsey Plum Under 19.5 points

There are two reasons for this bet—Plum coming back down to earth after an unreal first month and the Fever’s recent stingy defense.

Plum averaged 24.0 points in seven May games, followed by 17.9 points in nine June games. She was taking 18.1 shots per game in May versus 14.6 shots per game in June, which makes sense considering Plum had to take over more of the scoring load when Rickea Jackson was sidelined for a good chunk of May for the Sparks. 

The Fever became the first team this season to allow fewer than 60 points in consecutive games—surrendering just 59 to the Lynx and 54 to the Aces. Their perimeter defense has been outstanding, as just one guard has reached double-digit points (Lynx guard Courtney Williams with 11) over that two-game stretch. Stephanie White had been known for her defense while she was the head coach for the Sun, and she’s made major strides in that area in her first season with the Fever. 

Valkyries +9.5

First-year head coach Natalie Nakase is simply a wizard, as the Valkyries have gone 5-2 in their last seven games despite a few players leaving for EuroBasket and dealing with other injuries. This will be the first game back for Janelle Salaun (11.8 PPG) since June 9 and Cecilia Zandalasini (10.0 PPG) since June 7. 

This is Golden State’s first stop on a 4-game road trip over eight days (keep this in mind for later stops on the trip as a chance to fade the Valkyries), but they’ve been off since Sunday, so this is a well-rested group. 

The Lynx are first in the WNBA in offensive rating and defensive rating, but they’ve played a pretty easy schedule. Minnesota hasn’t faced the 12-5 Liberty yet. The two times the Lynx played the 12-6 Mercury, Phoenix was without Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper. They’ve gone up against the 11-7 Dream once, and needed to rally down 7 points with under 3 minutes left to escape in overtime. They’ve actually been outscored by a total of five points (10-point loss, 5-point win) in their two meetings with the 11-7 Storm.

The point is, I think the Lynx have been feasting on weaker opponents and aren’t as good as their 15-2 record. The Valkyries are 9-7 despite having played with a shorthanded roster for at least half of their games. These two teams have the WNBA’s two best defensive ratings, so it’s easy to envision a defensive struggle—making that 9.5-point spread even more enticing with the score likely on the lower end. 

Overall record: 31-32, +3.09 units