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Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Houston Astros. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fifth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here.
Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.
Complex HighlightsGerman Ramirez, SSJuan Fraide, RHP
Ramirez is still raw defensively, but he’s posting a .168 ISO in FCL action as an 18-year-old with legit bat speed. Fraide signed for just $10,000 this January. A projectable 19-year-old Mexican right-hander, he has already been brought stateside thanks to his prodigious strike-throwing in the DSL (13-to-2 K-BB in 15 innings), and pairs flashes of 95-96 mph with compelling spin talent.
Relievers with FoiblesAbel Mercedes, RHPRailin Perez, RHPRafael Gonzalez, RHPRaimy Rodriguez, RHPMisael Tamarez, RHPNolan DeVos, RHPTrey Dombroski, LHPBrett Gillis, RHP
Mercedes has touched 100 mph this year, which surely strikes fear in the hearts of Carolina League hitters. But since he’s walked 30 and hit seven batters in 22.1 IP, it’s not the type of fear teams covet. Perez is a sidewinding pure reliever who was plucked from the Red Sox system in the Minor League phase of the Rule 5 draft in 2023. He’s an uncomfortable at-bat for righties and has allowed just nine homers in over 250 pro innings, but 30-grade command might represent his peak. Gonzalez is a shorter, physically developed Dominican righty who has flashed upper-90s heat, but a long arm action and his lack of a glove-side secondary caps a single-inning relief ceiling. There’s middle-leverage relief potential in Rodriguez’s east-west, sinker-slider attack, but there’s not enough stability in his lower half actions nor strikes in his operation at present. Tamarez uses monstrous arm speed to run his two-seamer up to 98 mph and was a spring training invite, but his control has devolved too much to be considered for spot work. DeVos has shown the fastball characteristics to carry a relief profile, but he hasn’t pitched since 2023 due to TJ rehab. Dombroski can spin it enough to earn consideration for a 40-man addition this November, but his command hasn’t been precise enough to bank on him pitching around 89-91 mph at the upper levels. Since being a ninth-round selection in 2022, injuries kept Gillis to 7.2 professional innings until this year. He’s returned with an impressive physique and is carving up younger hitters in High-A, but his slider looks like his most compelling pitch and he lacks feel for locating it.
Outfielders with JuiceColin Barber, LFPedro León, RFYamal Encarnacion, UTILLuis Rives, LFKenni Gomez, CFNehomar Ochoa Jr., RFCesar Hernandez, LF
Barber still has plus raw left-handed pop, and his profile lacks a smoking gun for why he hasn’t produced more, but he’s moved off center and is striking out too much for the second year in a row. León is undersized for his extreme pull-power-over-everything approach, and the 27-year-old has largely been sidelined this year with a knee issue. Encarnacion is a compact (5-foot-7) and compelling bat speed/athleticism development project who needs polish and more outfield reps, but he has missed most of 2025 due to injury and is just getting going again on the complex. Rives still has the power and build that made him an intriguing $900,000 signing out of Cuba last year, but he’s running a sub-55% contact rate in the FCL. Gomez has remained athletic enough to stay in center field but hasn’t grown into his power potential because he swings at everything. Ochoa flashed intriguing power potential in his full-season debut last year, but he’s been banged up and is still striking out a ton. Hernandez signed for $1.7 million out of Cuba last year, but he has a big, late load in his unorthodox swing and has moved off center field.
Infield OptionsGarret Guillemette, C/1BAlejandro Nunez, UTILPascanel Ferreras, UTILWaner Luciano, 3B
Guillemette is a former 15th round pick who has made some meaningful improvements to covering the upper rail of the strike zone, and is now a good bet to get to his solid average raw power. There’s enough hit tool here for a solid offensive profile for a catcher, but he’s a much shakier bet for sticking there. Nunez is a do-everything utilityman who lacks a standout tool. Ferreras is a pint-size utilityman with plus raw pop, but he isn’t getting to it due to outer half plate coverage issues and excessive chase. Luciano has the bat speed and swing path for plus power, but he struggles to track breakers and hits a prodigious number of popups.
System Overview
As much as the Astros’ 2025 season is a testament to the idea that they will just keep winning the AL West no matter what (and no matter who gets cycled into their thinning core of battled-tested postseason veterans), this is a below-average system specifically because of the lack of future stars up top. And for as much as this front office and entire operation has transformed over the years, they still produce depth in what have become fairly consistent ways.
When it comes to the hitters they’ve targeted at the top of the draft, there’s a clear appetite for toolsy athletes and power-hitting frames, and because they’ve become very used to picking at the back of the first round – when they’ve had first round picks at all – that comes with an appetite for risk. Newly called-up Brice Matthews has monstrous tools that the Astros are betting will overcome a scary in-zone miss rate. Cam Smith – because when you trade a franchise mainstay for a player coming off their draft year, the amateur evaluation weighs in – is betting on unique size and athleticism overcoming an unorthodox swing for accessing power. Even a defensive-minded pick like Walker Janek is betting on his bat speed providing a foundation for impact offense that’s rarely accessible behind the dish.
That general appetite extends to the international space, where the Astros’ Cuban connection remains strong. If it was revealed that their Latin American scouts’ guiding mission is find the next Yordan Alvarez, it wouldn’t seem too out of line with the results. Luis Baez’s grueling month of June at an aggressive Double-A assignment outlines the difficulty they’ve had with matriculating massive power prospects from the complex leagues to the Crawford boxes. But they’re taking repeated shots on goal, and I’m as bullish on the early looks of Kevin Alvarez as is reasonable for a 17-year-old who has played fewer than 30 pro games.
Where the Astros take on their share of criticism around the industry is their decreasing conversion rate on international starters, which had formed the bones of their last World Series title. Alimber Santa, Miguel Ullola and Anderson Brito all have outlier physicality and very much seem like the pitching versions of the club’s power-hitting proclivities, but they are the best of a slew of international arms where command deficiencies make the bullpen their best route for providing impact.
But that’s not a flaw of Houston’s pitching as a whole, where backspun four-seamers are still ruling the day, and the Astros’ domestic operation has proven adept at finding and improving pitchers from non-elite programs. They did not invent finding starters whose value has dipped due to Tommy John surgery, but Ryan Forcucci and Bryce Mayer are the sorts of opportunistic adds a perennial contender needs to make to sustain their run.
There are literally no 50 FV talents here who are still prospect eligible, and I’m fairly skeptical of the hit tools of Matthews and Janek at the top, even though they have the defensive ability to return value even if their hitting plateaus. The cliff is clearly coming for this 1990s Braves-level run of ownership of the AL West that Houston fans have so richly enjoyed. Yet even with that reality staring the Astros in the face, there is still evidence of the organizational strengths that have kept this run going longer than just about any other team could have dreamed of engineering.
