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We’re almost at that time of year where we can watch actual football and not create offseason NFL rankings articles, but the operative word is almost. In the meantime, let’s see how much you’re emotionally affected by an unflattering ranking for the Seattle Seahawks.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell ranked teams from worst to first in terms of their offensive supporting cast, aka wide receivers, running backs, and tight ends. His criteria involved 2025 on-field performance and not credit for past work, looming suspensions and/or injury-related absences, greater weight toward wide receivers over RBs and TEs, and an emphasis on the top-end of the depth chart and not RB3s and WR5s.
Over the past two seasons, the Seahawks were 8th in 2024 and 4th in 2023. With DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett outta here, Barnwell placed Seattle at the bottom of the NFC West and in the bottom half of the overall rankings at No. 19.
A significant overhaul means the Seahawks drop in these rankings. Even while acknowledging that DK Metcalf’s 2020 season looks like an outlier and Tyler Lockett’s decline has become apparent, Seattle might have downgraded at both spots (while getting cheaper) by replacing them with Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Like Metcalf, Kupp is several years removed from what looks like an outlier year-plus as an elite receiver. He was the league’s best receiver when helping push the Rams to a Super Bowl in the 2021 season, and he stayed at that level during the first half of 2022. He hasn’t been the same since suffering an ankle injury and missing the rest of 2022, however.
The emergence of Puka Nacua in Los Angeles might have taken targets away from the former Offensive Player of the Year, but Kupp has averaged 2.2 yards per route run without Nacua on the field and 2.0 YPRR in total over the past two seasons. Those are solid numbers, but they’re a ways away from the 2.9 yards per route run he averaged in 2021-22. Factoring in Kupp’s age (32) and the reality that he has missed eight games over the past two seasons with injuries, he projects more like a solid No. 2 receiver than one with elite upside.
Valdes-Scantling was good in a small sample for the Saints last season, but the 30-year-old was cut by the Bills and joined New Orleans for free. The passing game should run through Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whose 2024 breakout helped keep the Seahawks from falling further. He averaged nearly 83 receiving yards per game from Week 9 onward, a 1,402-yard pace over a full season.
We’re still waiting for the breakout from other Seahawks. Noah Fant continues to be a high-floor, low-ceiling tight end, combining catch rates north of 74% with a lack of consistent big-play ability or any sort of threat in the red zone. He has one score over the past two seasons. Kenneth Walker III has the fourth-worst success rate (37%) and is tied for third-last in first downs over expectation among running backs with at least 500 carries in the past three seasons. It’s one thing to combine that profile with spectacular big plays, as Walker did in 2022, but after breaking off three 60-plus yard runs as a rookie, he hasn’t posted one since.
Is your blood boiling yet? Have you noted the disrespect? Are you already thinking of the 2013 season when the Seahawks receivers were called pedestrian?
My takeaway is that I think the Seahawks could’ve been ranked a bit higher (at least higher than Arizona at No. 15 and therefore at least in the top half), but it’s also not an injustice that they dropped this far. I think Lockett’s decline in productivity would’ve been grounds to drop Seattle down a few slots anyway.
Can anyone earnestly argue the Seahawks have any players in the top 10 (and, in some cases, top 15) in the addressed positions? You may love Kenneth Walker and acknowledge how awful the offensive line has been, but the stats are the stats and they’re not that of a top 10 back. Cooper Kupp was once an elite receiver but injuries have been killer and even though he’s still good, we ain’t getting 2021 Kupp anymore. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has real top 10 potential and he tore it up in the back-end of 2024, but you have to be a real homer to insert him there right now. Barnwell neglected Jake Bobo but that’s because he’s beyond ranking. We won’t touch tight end because there’s nothing to debate there.
Tory Horton and Elijah Arroyo are rookies and unless the Seahawks have caught lightning in a bottle with at least one of them, usually you don’t expect grand production out of rookies. Arroyo has a better chance to be instantly impactful because of the competition at tight end.
This doesn’t mean the Seahawks can’t still manage a very good, if not great offense where the untapped potential is uh, tapped and/or the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. A lot of it is dependent on the quality of the offensive line and whether or not Sam Darnold can replicate even 80% of what he managed with the Minnesota Vikings. There’s also how Klint Kubiak will fare as offensive coordinator when, it must be stressed, he’s had a grand total of two seasons as a play-caller and last season was practically a write-off due to a comically high number of injuries.
From the moment they step onto Lumen Field in Week 1 against the San Francisco 49ers, the Seahawks offense is very much in “prove it” mode to silence the skeptics after making major offseason changes to the roster and coaching staff. If we’re to assume the defense will build on last year’s success, any scenario in which the Seahawks also have an offensive supporting cast and/or an offense in the top 10-12 should result in no less than a playoff appearance, if not Super Bowl dark horse contender status.
