Mercury vs. Valkyries Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bets for Monday, July 14

The Golden State Valkyries are 10-10 in the 2025 season, and they’re aiming to get back over .500 on Monday when they host the Phoenix Mercury and Alyssa Thomas.

Phoenix has been rolling as of late, winning back-to-back games and eight of its last 10 to move to 14-6 in the 2025 season – tied with the New York Liberty for the second-best record in the W. 

Even with Satou Sabally (ankle) and Kahleah Copper (hamstring) out of the lineup, the Mercury have played winning basketball with Thomas leading the way. Phoenix will be without both All-Star caliber players again on Monday, which has led to oddsmakers setting the Valkyries as favorites in this matchup.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for this Western Conference battle as the All-Star game approaches in the W this season. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Moneyline

Total

Mercury Injury Report

Valkyries Injury Report

Valkyries Best WNBA Prop Bet

After this prop for Hayes was all the way up at 15.5 last week, it has fallen back down to 12.5, which is around her season average.

The veteran guard is averaging 13.4 points per game while shooting 44.6 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from beyond the arc. While she only attempted six and eight shots in her last two games, she still finished with 16 points in her last game against the Las Vegas Aces.

In fact, Hayes has 13 or more points in eight of her 13 appearances in the 2025 season. Phoenix does rank third in the W in defensive rating, but I think this line has moved down too far to pass Hayes up on Monday. 

To Phoenix’s credit, it beat the Dallas Wings by 30 points and the Minnesota Lynx by eight without Sabally or Copper, but I think that winning streak comes to an end on Monday night.

The Valkyries are one of the best teams at home in the WNBA this season, going 7-3 straight up, and they’ve been impressive against the spread all season long as well (13-7). 

While Phoenix has an elite defense (third in defensive rating) that can keep it in games without its two top scoring threats, I am worried that the magic that Thomas and company have had in recent games will wear off.

The Mercury had a 36-point game from Sami Whitcomb in their win over the Wings, and Thomas took over late against the Lynx to finish with 29 points in their last game. 

Golden State can really defend, as it is right behind the Mercury in defensive rating, ranking fourth in the W. 

Given how well the Valkyries have played at home, I think they’re a solid bet to pick up a win with Phoenix once again at less than 100 percent on Monday. 

Pick: Valkyries Moneyline (-122 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey’s WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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