Is Paige Bueckers a Rookie of the Year lock?

Paige Bueckers, the preseason favorite to win Rookie of the Year, is comfortably holding her lead. Bueckers is in a bigger role than any other rookie, and she’s outperforming the pack.

There truly isn’t much else to say about the state of the award, so instead, let’s audit the performances of the preseason favorites.

Paige Bueckers (Dallas Wings)

In the first week of the season, both the Dallas Wings and No. 1 overall pick Paige Bueckers were struggling. Now, approaching All-Star break, the Dallas Wings are still struggling. Bueckers, however, isn’t.

Through her first four games, Paige shot below 40 percent from the field three times. In the 14 games since, she’s only done so on four occasions. Her averages of 18.4 points per game, 5.5 assists and 4.1 rebounds leave no doubt for her place in the ROTY standings.

Truthfully, the one missing piece to the PB5 puzzle is winning more basketball games. It won’t hurt her candidacy, but six wins in 23 games is bad. The Wings are bad. Splash moves in the offseason advertised a new Dallas roster that would be built around their incoming rookie, but, oftentimes, it seems like they’re holding Bueckers back from winning. Arike Ogunbowale, Paige’s backcourt co-star, is still fighting a career-long battle with efficiency, which hasn’t improved despite a drop in shot attempts this season. Bueckers is on the fast track to a meaningful award, but Dallas is on a fast track to the bottom of the league standings. Sorry Wings fans, you can’t have it all.

Sonia Citron & Kiki Iriafen (Washington Mystics)

The Washington Mystics had three selections in the top six picks of the 2025 WNBA draft. Given the fluctuant nature of young WNBA players, fans were hoping that maybe one of the new Mystics would look like a potential future star. Well, Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen aren’t just potential stars: they’re leading the team to a playoff spot, and earning themselves selections to the All-Star game.

If anyone has an argument to top Bueckers in the ROTY race, it’s Citron. She’s averaging 14.1 points and five rebounds per game, both second amongst rookies. While she’s four points per game behind Bueckers, she shoots a higher percentage from both 3 and the free throw line, and only 0.6 percent worse from the floor as a whole. She also attempts four fewer shots than the No. 1 overall pick, explaining the discrepancy in scoring. Realistically, Citron probably will not have a real chance to win the award unless she can get within two points per game of Bueckers. However, that’s not impossible. If Citron has a dominant second half to her season, she could still see her name on a trophy.

Similarly, Iriafen has exceeded expectations but is facing an uphill battle to steal the crown from Bueckers. She leads rookies in rebounding, but her 12 points per game aren’t enough to frame her as the league’s best rookie. An All-Star appearance and All-Rookie selection, which is nearly guaranteed, are more then enough consolation.

Dominique Malonga (Seattle Storm)

A few weeks ago, a friend of mine texted me “Dominique Malonga looks like she’s two years away from being two years away,” joking about the raw, often flat nature of the French center’s impact on the game. Held to the high and harsh standard of being the No. 2 pick in a talented draft class, Malonga has debuted below the expectations of most. Criticisms of her game, isolated from her prospect profile, are fair. However, Malonga wasn’t picked for her immediate impact—and therefore shouldn’t be judged by it.

Malonga is four years and twenty-seven days younger than Bueckers, meaning when she’s no longer “two years away from being two years away,” she’ll still be younger than Paige currently is as a rookie. Malonga is a 19-year-old playing behind a 35-year-old former MVP on Seattle Storm’s depth chart. Even if she isn’t producing, she’s learning. Given their talent, Seattle knew they could afford to spend a pick on a project and still win basketball games. Malonga deserves the grace of time, and her coaching staff is easing her into a bigger role as the season progresses. She’s not a Rookie of the Year candidate, but that doesn’t mean she was the wrong pick.