WNBA predictions, picks today: Aces-Sparks among Tuesday’s best bets

There are three WNBA contests on Tuesday’s slate, including a Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks showdown at 10 p.m. ET on NBA TV, as Cameron Brink makes her season debut for the Sparks after coming back from an ACL tear. The other two matchups are both at 7:30 p.m. ET, with the Golden State Valkyries facing the Atlanta Dream and the Chicago Sky squaring off against the Washington Mystics.

If you’re interested in WNBA betting and WNBA player props at the best betting sites for Tuesday, July 29, then make sure to see today’s WNBA best bets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Today’s WNBA picks:

Sky-Mystics Under 157.5 points -110 (1 unit, FD)Sparks +2 -112 (1 unit, FD)

Sky-Mystics Under 157.5 points

The Sky “exploded” for 78 points in Sunday’s loss to the Fever, the first time in five games that they cracked the 70-point mark. Even though Angel Reese (back) is probable to return for this contest, Ariel Atkins (leg) is out once again, making this another Chicago Under to target.

In 624 minutes with Atkins on the floor this season, the Sky are scoring 103.0 points per 100 possessions. In 378 minutes without Atkins on the floor, that number drops all the way down to 89.4 points per 100 possessions.

With Reese likely playing, these two teams neutralize each other’s strengths on offense. The Sky and Mystics are tied for fourth in the WNBA for fewest points in the paint allowed per game (34.6). The Mystics shoot the fewest 3-pointers per game (16.2), and the Sky attempt the third-fewest (21.0). These are two teams that like to score inside and defend better in the paint compared to the perimeter. 

We’ve seen how this has played out in their two earlier matchups this season. The two teams combined for 151 points in their first matchup, where the Mystics won 79-72. Washington also won 81-79 in their other matchup, with the two teams at 149 points before combining for 11 points in a wild final minute. Keep in mind also that both of these previous contests were with a healthy Ariel Atkins, and there were still scoring troubles. 

Sparks +2

Cameron Brink is making her season debut after recovering from an ACL injury, but that’s not a key factor for me for this handicap. I’m just wondering why the Aces continue to get respect by being road favorites over a decent team.

Las Vegas is 4-5 against the spread as a road favorite this season, but three of those covers came against the worst teams in the league — two times vs. the Connecticut Sun and the other against the Dallas Wings without Paige Bueckers. That means against real competition, the Aces are 1-5 ATS this season as road favorites.

The Sparks possess the WNBA’s longest winning streak at five games, as they’ve scored at least 92 points in each of those contests. Rickea Jackson’s emergence over that stretch (18.2 PPG in her past five games, 12.1 PPG in her other 15 games this season) has been the biggest factor. 

With their five-game winning streak, the Sparks are just a game out of the final playoff spot — and this is a particularly meaningful game for former Aces Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby. I just think the Aces continue to get a little too much respect in the market, so I’m happy to back the red-hot Sparks getting points at home. 

Overall record: 48-55, +2.37 units