Best WNBA predictions, picks today: Valkyries-Mystics same-game parlay is Thursday’s best bet

The lone game on Thursday’s WNBA slate has the Golden State Valkyries taking on the Washington Mystics at 7:30 p.m. ET on Prime Video. With the Mystics in eighth place in the WNBA standings and the Valkyries in ninth (the top eight teams make the playoffs), this is a rather important contest for potential playoff positioning.

If you’re interested in WNBA betting and WNBA player props at the best betting sites for Thursday, July 31, then make sure to see today’s WNBA best bets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Today’s WNBA picks:

SGP (-101): Brittney Sykes 10+ points + Brittney Sykes Under 1.5 made 3-pointers

Brittney Sykes SGP

We’re getting a little creative here with this inverse correlation SGP because I was surprised that FanDuel has a Sykes 3-point prop of 1.5. Granted, the juice is heavy on the Under at -245, but I think the price should be even heavier.

Sykes has made multiple 3-pointers in three of 23 games this season (including in 12 straight regular season games), meaning she hasn’t done so in 87% of games. The -245 price on the Under implies a 71% chance that she doesn’t hit multiple 3-pointers. Even in the WNBA All-Star Game, where there was zero defense played, Sykes still managed to go 0-for-9 from outside.

Now, the Valkyries allow the most 3-pointers of any team (27.8) in the WNBA, but this is also a Mystics team that shoots by far the fewest 3-pointers per game (16.5, with the next-closest team being the Connecticut Sun at per game). I don’t think you’re going to see the Mystics shoot close to 30 3-pointers in this game; that’s just not what this team does — they like to score inside and get to the line. In the only meeting between the Valkyries and Mystics this season, Washington attempted 20 3-pointers.

I don’t want to give a best bet out at -245, so I’m going to pair it with Sykes 10+ points — which we’re getting a favorable price for because of the inverse correlation. Sykes 10+ points is -410 and the next player on the odds board is Tiffany Hayes 10+ points at -340. Despite Sykes 10+ being 70 cents shorter than Hayes, Hayes 10+ points plus Sykes Under 1.5 3-pointers is -126 while Sykes 10+ points plus Sykes Under 1.5 3-pointers is -101.

In Sykes’ 23 games this season, she’s scored 10+ points and made Under 1.5 3-pointers in 13 of those contests. Sykes does the majority of her work driving inside and getting to the free-throw line. Golden State allows the sixth-most free-throw attempts per game, so it’s not like the Valkyries’ aggressive defense doesn’t foul. 

Sykes scoring 10+ points has not been automatic of late, as she’s done so in 10 of 17 June and July games. The game total is also on the lower end at 153. But getting Sykes 10+ points priced down to -101 from -410, with the only addition being that a career 30.3% 3-pointer shooter (and 31.7% this season) doesn’t make multiple shots from outside, makes it worth it for me.