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The Indiana Fever and Phoenix Mercury meet Thursday, August 7 in a matchup of two playoff hopefuls. The Fever have managed to stay afloat without star guard Caitlin Clark, winning seven of their last 10 games. Clark remains sidelined indefinitely with a groin injury. The Mercury have gotten their stars back after some recent absences and are on a two-game winning streak, most recently defeating the Connecticut Sun. Tipoff from Phoenix is set for 10 p.m. ET and the game will be available on Prime Video.
Those interested in WNBA betting and looking for the best picks for Fever vs. Mercury should take a look at what bets WNBA experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai have locked in for Thursday’s contest.
Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Five years ago, he founded HerHoopStats.com — a groundbreaking website that unlocks insights about the women’s game. Wetzel, the site’s lead betting writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women’s hoops to turn the site’s prediction model into picks. Wetzel and Barzilai went 202-111-2 (+57.9 units) during the 2024 WNBA season and posted a 147-88-1 (+47.1 units) during the 2024-25 NCAA season. In the 2023 WNBA season, they finished 238-185-1 (+29.5 units).
Here are Wetzel and Barzilai’s best bets for Indiana vs. Phoenix.
Fever vs. Mercury picks:
Fever +5.5Natasha Howard Under 7.5 rebounds
Fever +5.5
While Indiana’s win streak and cover streak came to an end against the Sparks on Tuesday night, that was mostly due to LA’s 50% shooting from deep. This is still a Fever team that isn’t getting enough respect without Caitlin Clark – over the eight games that she’s missed with this most recent injury, Indiana has covered every time its opponent shoots below 50% from 3-point range.
Indiana’s net rating on the season is 2.5 points per 100 possessions better than the Phoenix’s, and while home court and the Mercury’s now healthy cast of stars are enough reason to still favor them, it’s not enough to favor them by this many points.
Natasha Howard Under 7.5 rebounds
Howard has been playing more minutes as of late, seeing 30+ in three straight contests. However, she has been prone to being benched for things like effort this season – she played only 23 minutes in the first matchup against the Mercury and has played less than 20 more times than she’s cleared 30.
This is mostly a bet on her playing time not sustaining, although fading any stat would work to fade her playing time. I’m choosing rebounds because it’s a stat in which she has a low median. While her average (which is still only 6.8) is pulled up by a handful out outbursts against lower tier opponents, such as 16 against the 8-21 Wings a week ago, she stays below this line far more often than not.
