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There is a ton of potential for movement in the playoff standings in the WNBA, as the No. 2 seed and the No. 4 seed are separated by just one game, and the No. 5 seed and the No. 9 seed are separated by just 2.5 games.
At this point, it feels like the Minnesota Lynx (No. 1 in the W by 6.5 games) are the only team that is locked into a spot ahead of the playoffs.
On Tuesday night, there are two games in action, starting with the Indiana Fever taking on the Dallas Wings.
This should be a matchup between the last two No. 1 overall picks, but Caitlin Clark (groin) remains out of the lineup for the Fever. Still, Paige Bueckers will be in action for the Wings, who are struggling so far this season with an 8-24 record.
Dallas has lost five games in a row, and it could be a team to fade on Tuesday night.
In the late game on Tuesday, the New York Liberty will look to bounce back from a loss to Minnesota on Sunday when they take on the Los Angeles Sparks in L.A.
The Sparks have won eight of their last 10 games to move into the playoff conversation in the W, but they are home dogs on Tuesday night.
Here’s a breakdown of my best bets for Tuesday’s action, including a player prop for Bueckers.
Find Peter Dewey’s WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Los Angeles Sparks +3 (-110) vs. New York Liberty
The Sparks struggled to start the season at home, winning just one of their first nine games, but they’re 5-1 at home since and are now 15-15-1 against the spread overall after covering as home dogs on Sunday.
The Liberty, on the other hand, are just 11-18-2 against the spread overall and 7-7 straight up on the road this season. New York has also struggled without Stewart, beating only the Wings (eight wins this season) and the Connecticut Sun (worst record in the WNBA) without her.
Stewart went down three minutes into a loss to the Sparks in July, and since then (including that game), the Liberty are just 3-5.
Los Angeles has the third-best net rating and the second-best offensive rating over its last 10 games, and I expect it to be in the mix to upset New York on Tuesday night. Unless the Liberty get a better shooting game out of Sabrina Ionescu (11-for-40 her last three games), they are going to struggle in this matchup.
Paige Bueckers UNDER 4.5 Assists (-105)
This season, Bueckers is averaging 5.3 assists per game, but she’s seen her production in that department fall off a bit since the All-Star break.
The Wings star is averaging 4.9 assists per game since the break, failing to clear 4.5 dimes in four of her seven games. She’s also failed to clear this prop in two of her three matchups against the Fever this season.
Indiana ranks second in the WNBA in opponent assists per game (18.6), and it has allowed just 14 assists to Bueckers in three games this season.
With the Wings trading away or waiving several veteran players, there isn’t nearly as much talent on this roster as there was early in the season, which seems to have impacted Bueckers a little as a passer.
I’ll fade her on the road on Tuesday night.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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