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Following Thursday’s 9-3 loss at the hands of the Washington Nationals on Thursday, the New York Mets are clinging to a half-game lead for the final NL wild-card spot.
Much has gone wrong for the Mets who held first-place in the NL East as recently as Aug. 2 after a months-long see-saw ride with the Philadelphia Phillies. Having lost 12 of their last 16 games, it would appear the see-saw ride is over. At 67-60, New York now sits seven games back of Philadelphia for the division lead. Should the Mets’ downward spiral continue, the last wild-card spot will soon belong to the Cincinnati Reds.
Among other weaknesses, New York has two critical concerns; and with the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, its chance to further shore up its unsteady roster via trade is now gone. If the Mets are going to have any chance of keeping their wild-card spot, these two glaring concerns will need to work themselves out:
Outfield production
The Mets outfield was already a target of scrutiny before the trade deadline. To strengthen this weakness, the Mets acquired Cedric Mullins from the Baltimore Orioles. Thus far, Mullins has not panned out. The Mets centerfielder is hitting for an OPS (OBP + SLG) of .589 in 17 games with New York.
Aside from Mullins, both Juan Soto and Brandon Nimmo own respectable numbers. However, for Soto, these respectable numbers don’t fully reflect his circumstances. The major problem the Mets have encountered with their marquee slugger is consistency.
On the year, Soto owns a .247/.381/.491 slash line. However, over the past 30 games, he has compiled an unsightly .191/.323/.418 slash line. Soto has slumped for most of the year. A hot streak that started at the end of May and lasted into July were enough to prop up his numbers.
Nonetheless, Soto’s .381 OBP, .872 OPS and 31 home runs lead the team in all three categories. Although his stat line is still All-Star caliber, the Mets need their $765M megastar to live up to his price tag and perform like he did last year. If Soto can be the star his team needs him to be for the rest of this season, that alone would give the Mets a much-needed boost.
Pitching
To start the year, the Mets surprisingly had one of the top pitching staffs in the game. However, it didn’t last too long. Their cumulative ERA has risen to 3.81, 10th in the game. What went wrong?
Griffin Canning, who started the season in All-Star form, began to regress before rupturing his left Achilles, ending his breakout season. Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea, who were both signed as free agents over the offseason (Manaea was resigned after a good performance last year), were sidelined with injuries before Opening Day. Since returning, both have performed miserably (Manaea owns a 5.15 ERA, Montas owns a 6.28 ERA). Montas has now been relegated to the bullpen.
Clay Holmes, the Mets experimental converted starter, was looking like a brilliant success. But as he has shown a tendency to do in the past, Holmes started falling apart towards the second half. Holmes finished June with an ERA of 2.97. Since the start of July, he has pitched to a 5.02 ERA.
Ryan Helsley, since arriving in Queens, has also had problems. In 6.1 innings to begin his Mets tenure, Helsley has given up five earned runs.
In their fight to stay in the postseason picture, the Mets pitching staff has become a potential fatal flaw. If their pitching doesn’t improve, it would be hard to imagine New York advancing to the playoffs.
