WNBA: With playoffs unlikely, what’s next for the Mystics?

Per ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, the Washington Mystics’ odds to make the 2025 WNBA Playoffs have withered to a 0.6 percent chance.

For a large portion of the season’s waning second half, Washington had paced themselves in a pack of teams fighting for the final three seeds. Four losses in their last four outings pulled the chair on those aspirations. Save for a miracle, the Mystics have missed the playoffs for a second-straight season.

Was Johnson’s first season a failure?

The expectations of head coach Sydney Johnson’s inaugural season did not include a postseason berth.

In fact, many media outlets and talking heads voted Washington to finish last, or at least bottom three, in the league. While a 9th or 10th place finish doesn’t seem far from those pessimistic predictions, their record doesn’t do their season justice. Before trading leading scorer Brittney Sykes, Washington was wading in front of their respective playoff pack. Johnson visibly changed the culture in Washington—an intangible problem that often felt like the elephant in the room during the late Thibault years.

Johnson has also been the catalyst for Washington’s highest offensive rating since their 22-win 2022 season. Parallel to the evolution of basketball thought, Johnson endorsed playing fast with advantages, rarely forcing his talent to play within the constraints of rigid offensive sets. His offense is free-flowing, more consistent in its own framework than that of recent Mystics teams. Many of the team’s offensive shortcomings can be easily attributed to personnel, as Johnson wasn’t graced with the experience nor talent that some of his fellow coaches inherited.

If there’s a criticism of Johnson’s debut, it should be regarding defense. Washington finished 10th of 13 teams in defensive rating, which is the worst in nine seasons for DC. Unlike on the offensive side of the ball, the Mystics have enough established defenders to argue that their lack of results is a disappointment. Sykes’ defense, the aspect of her game that has received the most accolades, noticeably eroded under her offensive responsibilities. It rarely felt like Washington was competing through their defense.

Flaws aside, Johnson and his staff have earned the confidence of a fanbase, a meaningful co-sign in the Capital’s miserable basketball economy. They’ve set themselves up well for the future and avoided over-investment into a roster unfit for postseason contention. If not impressive, Washington has had a productive season.

Looking ahead to roster turnover

Sans playoffs, a handful of Mystics players are now living in the uncertainty of next year’s job. Six of Washington’s 12 players are on rookie contracts. They have three first-round picks next season, meaning that they’ll need to vacate space for those players to join the team. Shakira Austin, Stefanie Dolson, Alysha Clark, Sug Sutton, Jade Melbourne and Emily Engstler are all on expiring contracts. Madison Scott is on her second seven-day deal. Bluntly, there’s a very real chance that Shakira Austin is the only one of those players in Washington’s locker room next May.

Dolson has been a serviceable bench center post-Aaliyah Edwards trade, but her age makes it difficult to envision her as a long-term rotation player on Johnson’s team. Resigning Alysha Clark would be nothing but a move to stay above the cap floor and maintain a veteran presence, which would by no means be a negative venture, but one with little impact on the Mystics’ record.

Emily Engstler has seen a huge uptick in minutes throughout the season, but hasn’t proved much in terms of consistency nor readiness for a bigger role. Engstler has been gradually transitioning into a 3/4 wing player, whereas she spent her college career and first few professional seasons as a 4/5 forward. She fits the part offensively (although her shooting could be much more consistent), but she isn’t used to defending guards. Her long wingspan allows her to recover to perimeter shooters and block jump shots, but her frame isn’t ideal for tracking quicker guards over screens and impacting their dribble. Engstler’s place on the 2026 Mystics will be undoubtedly dependent on whether or not Johnson feels like she’s worth the investment. Arguments on both sides have merit. Floor-spacing big wings can be hugely impactful, but Engstler’s development is a gamble, not a guarantee.

Sug Sutton and Jade Melbourne are very similar in their strengths and weaknesses. Both are ball-screen dominant guards who turn the ball over far too much for their limited roles. Both struggle to make offensive impacts without ball-screens. Neither are true off-ball difference makers, as Sutton is a passable 3-point shooter, while Melbourne is not. Melbourne is much younger, but the Mystics chose not to pick up the team option on her contract. It’s hard to believe that they’re prepared to give her a new, longer term deal, so that’s a convincing sign that they don’t view her as a future Mystic.

With Georgia Amoore set to eventually return to play, even if she won’t be ready at the beginning of next season, neither Sutton nor Melbourne feel like favorable options to receive new contracts from general manager Jamila Wideman. Additionally, trading Sykes has left room in the Mystics’ point guard troop. It feels inevitable that one, if not multiple, of the Mystics first-round picks will be used on a ball-dominant guard in next years draft. They shouldn’t settle for role-playing handlers who need screens to get downhill. Washington is still looking for their future franchise PG, and Melbourne and Sutton just don’t fit the bill. Although the final six games won’t have much of an impact on the team’s place in the standings, they’ll be one final opportunity for the fringe Mystics to make their case.