WNBA: Are the Liberty skidding toward an early playoff exit?

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Does end-of-season success predict playoff success?

The New York Liberty better hope not. On Tuesday, the Liberty officially cemented a spot in the 2025 WNBA Playoffs—by losing. New York, still without Sabrina Ionescu (toe) and Nyara Sabally (knee), turned in their most anemic offensive performance of the season in a 66-58 loss to the Golden State Valkyries; however, the Indiana Fever’s loss to the Phoenix Mercury, 85-79, ensured that the defending champs are playoff-bound.

The achievement elicited no celebration from New York, only lamentations about their current state. As head coach Sandy Brondello put it, “We just lost the game. Yeah, we’re in the playoffs, but we still lost the game.”

Breanna Stewart, who finished with an inefficient 19 points, elaborated, “This has been disappointing, collectively. Yeah, there can be bright spots or whatever, but we have three games left and we’re not where we need to be. It’s frustrating, it’s tough.” Stewart then specifically discussed how New York’s defensive struggles have fed into offensive issues, noting, “It’s the story of our season right now. When we have to take the ball out of the net, we struggle.“

The stats back up Stewie’s assessment. Early in the season, when the Liberty looked like world beaters bound for a repeat, they were feasting on easy offense, racking up points off turnovers and fastbreak points. That defense-to-offense potency has withered, and with it the Liberty’s indomitability. Before the All-Star break, New York scored more then 18 points off turnovers per game and better than 14 fastbreak points; after the All-Star break, they’ve dropped to 12.5 points off turnovers and 9.1 fastbreak points. Concomitantly, their overall offensive rating has slipped by about four points, from 107.4 pre-All-Star to 103.7 post-All-Star.

All hope is not lost for the No. 5-seed Liberty. A potential analog for this team is the 2021 Chicago Sky, where injuries and other availability issues contributed to an underwhelming regular season that still ended with the franchise’s first championship. And on the other side of that WNBA Finals was Brondello and the Phoenix Mercury, a team that likewise made their own playoff momentum after an uneven regular season.

This season’s Mercury, however, likely will choose to believe that end-of-season momentum does matter for the playoffs, as their win over the Fever was their fifth-straight. Alyssa Thomas powered Phoenix with a near-triple-double, finishing with 23 points, nine rebounds and nine assists. Still, this hot streak hasn’t been enough for the No. 4-seed Mercury to surpass the No. 3-seed Atlanta Dream or No. 2-seed Las Vegas Aces, as Atlanta has won five of their last seven games, with the only two losses coming to Vegas, still riding their 12-game winning streak.

The Valkyries are trying to establish a bit of breathing room in the middle of the playoff bracket with their own winning streak. The victory over the Liberty, which was achieved in typical Golden State fashion with contributions coming from up and down the roster, was the fourth-straight for the No. 6 seed. The Valkyries are now two games away from becoming the first WNBA expansion team to make the postseason.

A second-straight loss, in contrast, has the Fever clinging to the No. 8 seed. And it appears increasingly unlikely that Caitlin Clark will return to right Indy’s momentum. While the sophomore completed 5-on-0 work, she still has not participated in a full-team practice, something she must do multiple times in order to be cleared to play. With only three games left in the regular season, time is not in the Fever’s favor. For now, Indiana’s postseason hopes are in the hands of Kelsey Mitchell—far from a bad place to be. Mitchell had another monster scoring game, draining five 3s and dropping 29 points in the loss.

The Fever’s vulnerability is the Los Angeles Sparks’ opportunity. The No. 9 seed—now sitting one game back of Indiana and in possession of the tiebreaker—is in Atlanta for a two-game set against the Dream, with the first game scheduled for Wednesday (7:30 p.m. ET, League Pass). The two teams have not met since May 27, when 25 points from Allisha Gray helped Atlanta escape Southern California with an 88-82 win. Gray, however, is listed as questionable to play (left knee); on the Sparks’ side, only Rickea Jackson is on the injury report, listed as probable (right lower leg).