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In the season leading up to his restricted free agency this summer, Cam Thomas made for an interesting discussion among NBA scouts and executives. His next contract would be a Rorschach test for how his contributions were valued. Was he a low-calorie playmaker or high-volume scorer, and where would his skillset fit best?
Opinions varied but there was some agreement that his next deal would pay him $10-20 million a year, or more.
This summer has proven that guessing game to be misguided. Thomas will return to the Brooklyn Nets this upcoming season but on a one-year, $6 million contract, a team source confirmed. Thomas agreed to take the team’s qualifying offer in order to enter next offseason unencumbered after wallowing in restricted free agency for two months. Thomas, like he often does with his shot selection, decided to bet on himself.
He has not been the only one to be bedeviled by an unwelcoming and, well, restricting free agency ecosystem. Golden State’s Jonathan Kuminga, Chicago’s Josh Giddey and Philadelphia’s Quentin Grimes are all still unsigned, still waiting for their team — or any team — to show them the money. Who knows when the wait will end?
They are examples of the collective bargaining agreement. Every dollar spent now feels like it comes with an opportunity cost — for another player or transaction or freedom in roster building. The apron system established with the 2023 CBA has allowed teams to squeeze players in negotiations.
This summer, that squeeze was exacerbated by a lack of cap space around the league. Only one team had significant cap room —the Nets — and they didn’t want to burn it in the wrong places. Teams like the Suns and Celtics worked to get under the second apron. Extricating a team out of bad decisions has never been more difficult and the consequences have never been more punitive.
That has forced changes in behavior. Look at the Nets. Less than a decade ago, in general manager Sean Marks’ first rebuild, they wrote big restricted free agent offers to Otto Porter, Allen Crabbe and Tyler Johnson. Now, they’re resolute in talks with a homegrown player in Thomas, who will turn 24 this season. The Chicago Bulls gave Patrick Williams $90 million a few years ago and he was hardly as productive as Giddey has been to this point in his career. But paying premium money for flawed players comes at a cost that wasn’t apparent in those simpler days.
Teams seem less interested in paying for test-ride contracts, where they give significant dollars to young players they are not quite sure about. That makes life difficult for imperfect players. Forget making mistakes. Teams haven’t even agreed to any contracts with incentives this summer because they’re so averse to possibly, potentially, maybe being in a place where those extra millions could matter. And increasingly, they do.
While a restricted free agent’s team now has just two days to match another team’s offer, the leaguewide absence of cap space is a larger hindrance. That has put Thomas and his three other compatriots in a tough place.
Deals happen too quickly in free agency for teams to wait out a few days to see if contract offers to restricted free agents will go through. And teams would need to create cap space to make the new contracts work, which added more friction.
Next summer could be a better option for Thomas. If he’s willing to wait and risk the monthslong anxiety pangs of a qualifying offer, he’ll have unrestricted free agency as a ballast. More teams, as of now, are set to have cap space next summer. That could make the risk worthwhile. The salary cap grew by 10 percent for the 2025-26 season and is projected to grow by seven percent next season, according to the league memo sent to teams.
But there are also trends working against restricted free agents. Players increasingly sign contract extensions rather than go to free agency, in part because the last CBA made it more lucrative to do so. More extensions, of course, means less cap space. And there is still 10 months to go until the next free agency cycle.
Teams are avoiding the increasingly punitive repercussions of spending above the salary cap. During the 2023-24 season, seven teams were above the first apron and five above the second apron. This season, six teams are projected to be above the first apron and only one above the second.
There is a reason why players have mostly signed multi-year contracts of some sort instead of taking the one-year qualifying offer: The money isn’t great (relatively speaking) and there is no long-term assurance.
But betting on yourself does bring upside — a no-trade clause and flexibility in the next offseason. That’s what Thomas chose. Will the other restricted free agents do that too, or take what the teams are offering? It’s a hard choice to make.
(Photo by Luke Hales / Getty Images)
