rewrite this title FanGraphs Power Rankings: August 25–September 7

The playoff race in the National League looks pretty settled, but the door to capturing a Wild Card spot in the American League looks like it has cracked open a little bit. There are a handful of teams still looking to make a last minute run, though with less than a month left in the season, time is running out for those long shots.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

…

Suddenly, the best team in the majors is suffering through mounting injury issues. Just last week, the Brewers placed Shelby Miller and Nick Mears on the IL, while Christian Yelich was held out of his fifth straight game on Sunday with back tightness. Along with Trevor Megill, that’s three key members of the bullpen sidelined for the stretch run. It sounds like Megill is on the mend and should be healthy for the postseason, and Mears may only require a minimum stay for back tightness, but Miller is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery, ending what had been an inspiring comeback season from the oft-injured veteran. As for Yelich, it’s a worrying situation given the back surgery he underwent late last season, though the issue hasn’t been bad enough to force him to the IL yet. In more encouraging news, Brice Turang has powered up and is leading the offense right now; since the beginning of August, he’s put up a .362/.430/.709 slash line (good for a 213 wRC+) with 11 home runs.

The Phillies had a scare when they were swept by the Mets a few weeks ago, but they’ve responded with three straight series wins to maintain their lead in the NL East. With the gap between Philadelphia and New York now up to seven games, the Phils have a 96.3% chance of winning the division according to our playoff odds. Still, they’ll have to fend off the Mets in a huge four-game series this week, and to make things more difficult, Trea Turner exited Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury. His status for the playoff push is unknown right now. Update: it looks like Alec Bohm will join Turner on the IL with an unspecified injury.

The Red Sox will have to fight for their spot in the AL Wild Card race without Roman Anthony leading the offense. Their rookie outfielder was placed on the IL on Wednesday with a strained oblique, and it’s possible he’ll be sidelined into mid-October, should Boston make it that far in the postseason. It doesn’t bode well that the Red Sox lost three straight games after Anthony’s injury and were only able to salvage a single win in their series against the Diamondbacks, with a dramatic late-inning comeback on Sunday.

In a battle between the top two teams in the AL East, the Yankees emerged victorious over the Blue Jays in a hard-fought three-game series this past weekend. That series win cut Toronto’s division lead down to two games. Since an ugly series loss to the Red Sox a few weeks ago, the Yankees have gone 10-3 and suddenly look like one of the best teams in the AL again. The Yanks will have to prove they’re all the way back on top against the Tigers and Red Sox this week.

As for the Blue Jays, their bullpen is suddenly a glaring issue. The relief corps was responsible for two losses last week and two more the week before, and their ERA over the last 14 days is a whopping 5.01, 21st in the majors. Thankfully, the offense has continued to look like one of the most potent in the AL; Vladimir Guerrero Jr. collected 14 hits and two home runs last week, and George Springer and Daulton Varsho chipped in with three homers each as well.

The Cubs lost to the Nationals on Sunday in ugly fashion, ruining what had been a pretty good week. Daniel Palencia allowed five runs to score in the ninth inning and then had to leave the game with a shoulder injury that might keep him sidelined for the rest of the season. Chicago’s bullpen had been an issue earlier in the season, but the emergence of Palencia had settled the group down over the last few months. The Cubs will head into the postseason with the ninth inning role up in the air.

It’s been a really rough start to September for the Dodgers. First, they were swept by the Pirates in Pittsburgh, and then their series in Baltimore started with a walk-off loss on Friday. Saturday’s game was perhaps their worst loss of the season, however. Yoshinobu Yamamoto took a no-hitter into the ninth inning before allowing his first hit — a Jackson Holliday home run — with two outs in the frame. Blake Treinen came in to secure the one-out save but wound up allowing three runs to score, giving the Orioles an improbable walk-off victory. Los Angeles managed to salvage a win on Sunday, but the team is crashing at the worst possible time. San Diego is just a game behind them in the NL West standings, though our playoff odds still give the Dodgers a 78.6% chance of holding on to their division lead. As for the Padres, they weren’t able to take advantage of their rival’s woes until winning two of three from the Rockies this past weekend; they were swept by those same pesky Orioles earlier in the week.

Speaking of teams stumbling as they approach the finish line, the Astros lost both of their series last week. And then there was that weird situation with Framber Valdez and César Salazar on Monday, where Valdez hit his catcher with a crossed-up pitch just after he had allowed a grand slam to break the game wide open. Thanks to Seattle’s own struggles, Houston’s lead in the AL West is still 2.5 games, but a homestand against the Rangers and the Mariners in two weeks looms pretty large.

The Mariners’ rotation had been going through a rough patch; heading into their weekend series in Atlanta, they had posted a 4.94 ERA over the last 30 days. Of course, their starters allowed just four runs in 17.1 innings in a critical series win over the Braves. It also helps that the offense scored 28 runs across two blowout wins on Saturday and Sunday. The team blasted 10 home runs during the onslaught, with Eugenio Suárez hitting three, and Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez each contributing a pair. Raleigh now has a league-leading 53 bombs, while Rodríguez is up to a 161 wRC+ during the second half; the center fielder secured the third 25/25 season of his career over the weekend.

It’s pretty amazing that the Mets have turned their starting rotation over to the young trio of Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, and Brandon Sproat, even going so far as to option Kodai Senga in an effort to get the veteran right for the postseason. It’s a bold gamble in the middle of a playoff race. McLean has been up to the task, with a 1.37 ERA in four starts, but Tong was knocked around a bit in his second big league start — he gave up four runs in six innings against the Reds on Saturday. Sproat’s debut on Sunday was promising even though he ultimately took the loss; he allowed three runs in six innings while striking out seven. Thankfully, Juan Soto is doing his part to drag the team into October; he’s slashing .306/.456/.645 (a 204 wRC+) since the beginning of August. He blasted 10 home runs last month and has already hit three in September, and he seems hell bent on reaching the 30/30 milestone — he’s one stolen base away — for the first time in his career.

With the AL playoff picture still unsettled thanks to the struggles of the Astros and Mariners, these four teams still have some hope of a playoff run. The problem is, none of them really seem like they want to make that run; all four barely moved forward in the standings last week. The Rangers and Royals went 3-3 to gain a single game on the Mariners, bringing them to 1.5 and two games back, respectively. Meanwhile, the Rays jumped back into the playoff picture with a seven-game win streak culminating in a sweep of Seattle, only to lose three of four to the Guardians last weekend. Cleveland is now 2.5 games back in the Wild Card race, while Tampa Bay is four games out. It’s all a muddy mess, but the playoff odds still favor the M’s pretty heavily.

The Rangers, who are sticking around despite facing a growing number of injuries, merit a closer look. Over the last few weeks, they’ve lost Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis García, and Nathan Eovaldi to significant injuries. That’s a ton of talent missing from their lineup for this critical stretch of games, and their best pitcher sidelined to boot. Wyatt Langford is currently the Rangers’ best offensive player, with a 118 wRC+. In fact, they have just three players with a wRC+ over 100 currently on their active roster: Langford, Josh Smith (101 wRC+), and 29-year-old rookie Michael Helman (112 wRC+ with just 52 plate appearances this year). Still, even with all those absences, they just took two of three from the Astros over the weekend.

While the NL Wild Card race isn’t as exciting as the AL’s, these four teams are still putting some pressure on the Mets. The Reds broke out of an ugly funk with a critical series win over New York this past weekend. Heading into that series, they had won just three times in their previous 13 games. Hunter Greene was absolutely masterful in his start on Sunday, striking out 12 Mets in seven innings while allowing just a single hit and run. The big problem for Cincinnati is Elly De La Cruz’s ongoing struggles; he’s down to a 69 wRC+ during the second half while playing through a quad injury.

The other three teams in this tier have been among the best in the NL since mid-August; all three are 12-8 since August 18, tied with the Phillies and Pirates for the best record in the league during this stretch. For the Giants, it’s been quite the turn around. An ugly July and beginning of August caused them to fall to five games under .500 on August 16, putting them well outside the playoff picture. Thanks to a red hot streak from Rafael Devers, they’re back on the fringe of the Wild Card race; he’s collected a 195 wRC+ since that low point in mid-August and has blasted 14 second half home runs. Along with a strong second half from Justin Verlander — he collected double-digit strikeouts for the first time since 2022 in his August 31 outing — the Giants are making a very late push for the final Wild Card spot. The schedule is pretty daunting, however; San Francisco has six games against the Diamondbacks and seven against the Dodgers over the next two weeks.

It’s been a disappointing season in Baltimore, but at least they were able to enjoy that wild walk-off victory against the Dodgers on Saturday. The Orioles did well to play the part of spoiler against San Diego and Los Angeles last week, and they’ll get a bunch of opportunities to disrupt the AL East standings over the next few weeks; they have a three-game series against the Blue Jays this weekend and will face the Yankees seven times during the last two weeks of the season. The continued excellence of Trevor Rogers — he’s down to a 1.51 ERA in 15 starts this year — and the return of Kyle Bradish should make this a tough team to beat down the stretch.

As I mentioned above, the Pirates have been one of the better teams in the NL since mid-August, and that includes their three-game sweep at the hands of the Brewers last weekend. It’s all about the pitching in Pittsburgh right now. Paul Skenes has pretty much wrapped up the NL Cy Young award, and he’s been joined by a bunch of the Pirates’ top pitching prospects. Prior to his blowup against Milwaukee on Sunday, Bubba Chandler was looking pretty good in a bulk relief role, while Braxton Ashcraft has been solid in short starts since moving to the rotation in August. With piggyback starts and bulk relief outings limiting the exposure of the youngsters, this isn’t exactly a fully formed rotation just yet. Still, you can squint and see the talent coalescing into something special over the next few years.

The Braves have been playing for next year for a while now, so it’s good to see some excellent starts from top pitching prospect Hurston Waldrep. The two runs he allowed in his start on Saturday were the most he’s allowed in a single outing this year. Assuming Spencer Schwellenbach returns from his elbow injury no worse for wear next year, Atlanta should have a solid rotation in the making. The Braves are also hoping Ha-Seong Kim will solve their shortstop black hole. They claimed him off waivers from the Rays last week to serve as their starting shortstop for the final month of the season, giving Kim and the team time to assess his fit before he has to make a decision about his 2026 player option this winter.

The White Sox had an encouraging week last week. They swept the Twins in four games — the first time they had done that in Minnesota in franchise history — and then won a road series against the division-leading Tigers. Colson Montgomery hit three more home runs, bringing his career total up to 18 in 53 games. The six wins last week also gives Chicago a slim shot at ending the season with fewer than 100 losses. That would be a pretty triumphant improvement after such an abysmal season last year.