WNBA: Can the Valkyries stop the Storm from clinching a playoff berth?

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The Los Angeles Sparks are going to be huge Golden State Valkyries fans on Tuesday. However, the Seattle Storm quickly can snuff out that California camaraderie.

If the Storm defeat the Valkyries (10 p.m. ET, League Pass) in a game that tips off at the same time the Sparks will be facing the Phoenix Mercury (10 p.m. ET, NBA TV), Los Angeles’ result will be rendered irrelevant. With a win, the Storm are in the 2025 WNBA Playoffs, setting the eight-team field and sending the Sparks to an early offseason for the fifth-straight season.

Yet, Seattle has refused to make things simple this season. And Golden State has repeatedly disrupted the best laid plans. As such, hope, however fleeting, remains for LA. Here’s a closer look at Tuesday’s two games with direct playoff drama, plus the Las Vegas Aces’ chances earning win No. 15 in a row:

3s could determine Seattle’s playoff forecast

Nneka Ogwumike shoots a 3 against the Valkyries.

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Yes, it’s premature, but if the Storm fail to make the playoffs, they have to be deemed one of the most disappointing teams in recent league history. The only team with four All-Stars (although Brittney Sykes secured her honor as a member of the Washington Mystics), Seattle’s talent suggests they should be fighting for homecourt advantage, not battling for a mere playoff berth.

The Valkyries, of course, are the opposite, exceeding every expectation as the most successful expansion team in WNBA history. Currently the No. 6 seed, Golden State could clear an even higher bar by sliding past the New York Liberty into the No. 5 seed with wins in their final two games. Golden State, likewise, will want to avoid slipping into a lower seed. So, the Valkyries still have plenty to play for. And, they’ve already beaten the Storm in two of the three games between the teams.

Seattle can take solace in the fact that they do not have to travel to Ballhalla, where Golden State was twice victorious. Or, maybe not, as the Storm have a better road record (13-9) than home record (9-12).

Their home issues can partly be explained by 3-point shooting variance; the Storm shoot under 31 percent from 3 at home compared to over 37 percent on the road. Interestingly, the Valkyries’ defense, which ranks just ahead of the Storm’s at No. 4 in the league, intentionally allows opponents to shoot 3s, permitting a league-high 28.1 3s per contest. The 3-point gods have thus far smiled on Golden State, as opponents have only converted 31.6 percent of all those triples.

The Valkyries are going to dare the Storm to make their 3s. Can they do it?

The league’s lowest volume 3-point shooting team for much of the season, the Storm have been more aggressive from deep as the year has progressed, taking over 30 per game in two of their last four contests. Nneka Ogwumike is responsible for a significant portion of that increased aggression, upping her 3-point volume to almost five per game since the All-Star break and making 40 percent of them. If you’re a Storm fan, for all the reasons to doubt this team, you have to feel pretty good about having the ball in Nneka’s hands.

But, she’ll need a co-star, and all three of her fellow All-Stars—Sykes, Skylar Diggins and Gabby Williams—have been highly inconsistent of late.

Can the Sparks match the Mercury’s energy?

Dearica Hamby is defended by Alyssa Thomas.

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The Sparks are meeting the Mercury at a bad moment.

Fighting for the best playoff seed possible, Phoenix found themselves in a back-and-forth contest with the Connecticut Sun on Saturday—and lost. As they aim to keep pace with No. 2-seed Atlanta Dream, winners over the Sun on Monday night, and No. 3-seed Las Vegas Aces, the Mercury return home, where they have compiled a 15-6 record, ready for a resounding rebound win. Phoenix also is 3-0 against LA this season.

That two of those loss were by five points or fewer should give the Sparks a measure of confidence. (Although, they did allow the Mercury to complete an 18-point comeback in one of those close losses.)

Kelsey Plum (left foot) and Rickea Jackson (lower right leg) are listed on Los Angeles’ injury report as questionable and probable, respectively. It would be shocking if, with their season on the line, either didn’t suit up. Jackson, who has missed two of three games against the Mercury, could be a difference maker. In her lone game against Phoenix, she scored an efficient 21 points, netting four 3-pointers.

It will also be important for LA to match Phoenix’s activity level. Expect that to be demonstrated by Dearica Hamby. The most experienced Spark has been striving to do everything necessary to get her squad into the playoffs. In four September games, she’s averaging more than 22 points, grabbing just under nine boards and dishing nearly four assists per game; her season-long averages are 18.4 points, eight rebounds and 3.2 assists.

The Aces will roll to 15 in a row

The Sky bench watches A’ja Wilson celebrate.

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In Tuesday’s third late game, the Aces will hope to repeat Sunday’s easy win over the Chicago Sky (10 p.m. ET, League Pass), running their winning streak to 15 games and retaking the No. 2 seed from the Dream.

The Sky, as Zachary Draves detailed, are dealing with bigger, self-inflicted issues. Angel Reese (back) is questionable for Chicago, while Ariel Atkins (back) is out. For the Aces, NaLyssa Smith (concussion) is again questionable.

An upset over the Aces could inspire the kind of vibe shift the Sky very much need. However, as everything has been going wrong for Chicago while everything is almost ideal for Vegas, a Sky win would be one of the more shocking results of the season.