Las Vegas Aces’ A’ja Wilson WNBA MVP betting favorite over Napheesa Collier | Aces

The Aces’ regular-season finale against the Los Angeles Sparks on Thursday may seem like reigning WNBA MVP A’ja Wilson’s last chance to make her case for a repeat.

The seventh-year forward may have already clinched the award for the fourth time, however.

Wilson, 29, has led the Aces (29-14) on a massive turnaround. The team is 17-3 since the WNBA’s All-Star break in July and has won 15 straight. She leads the league in points (23.4), rebounds (9.9) and blocks (2.3) per game.

Even longtime ESPN personality Stephen A. Smith, who rarely discusses the WNBA, called the MVP race in Wilson’s favor Tuesday.

“Let me say this, ladies and gentlemen: The Las Vegas Aces lost by 53 points on their home court to the Minnesota Lynx. … They ain’t lost a game since,” Smith said on the show “First Take.” “And this woman, A’ja Wilson, who’s already a three-time league MVP, is about to get another one.”

Wilson has scored at least 30 points 13 times this season, a league record for a single campaign. She also became the first player in WNBA history to have 30 points and 20 rebounds in a game in the Aces’ win over the Connecticut Sun on Aug. 10.

Now the favorite

Betting odds reflect how the MVP race has shifted in Wilson’s favor.

She entered the season as the second choice to win the award at the Westgate SuperBook behind Indiana Fever star Caitlin Clark, but Lynx forward Napheesa Collier soon became the overwhelming favorite.

Collier is second in the WNBA in points per game (23), eighth in rebounds per game (7.4) and fifth in blocks per game (1.6). She’s a huge reason why Minnesota (33-10) has the league’s best record.

The odds have flipped recently, however. Wilson is now the -900 favorite to win a record fourth WNBA MVP award, while Collier is the 6-1 underdog.

Aces coach Becky Hammon has spoken about the race several times in the last few weeks, and gave her longest and most passionate comments yet during a pregame news conference Tuesday.

“This is not who’s the best on their team or anything like that. This is who’s the best in the league. This is the league MVP. So please stop all that silliness talking about who’s more impactful on their team. By the way, (Wilson) wins that argument, too. We were 1-3 without her. She impacts both sides of the game,” Hammon said. “Nobody cares about your feelings and your opinions. Math doesn’t lie. The numbers are the numbers. I’m sorry if you don’t like it. And whether she’s winning her 12th MVP — which she very well could in her career — or her first, you don’t crown someone at the beginning of the year and then walk it back so that it fits your narrative.”

Hammon has done a lot of the talking for Wilson in recent weeks. Wilson has then provided the performances to back those words up.

Collier was still the -900 favorite to win her first MVP award at the Westgate SuperBook heading into her team’s game against the Aces on Sept. 4, while Wilson was the 6-1 second choice.

Hammon acknowledged at the time that Wilson and Collier were the league’s “two best players,” but asserted that Wilson was the most dominant.

The matchup between the two sides supported that argument. Wilson had 31 points and eight rebounds in a 97-87 win, while Collier had 12 points and six rebounds.

Playoff picture

The Lynx remain the even-money favorite to win the WNBA title. The Aces are tied with the New York Liberty (26-17) as the +350 second choice.

The team’s postseason path is still unclear. The Atlanta Dream (30-14) are a half game ahead of the Aces for the No. 2 seed in the playoffs, but the Aces have the tiebreaker and a game in hand. That means they’ll clinch the No. 2 seed with a win Thursday.

The Sparks (21-22), led by former Aces players Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby, were eliminated from the playoffs Tuesday but could still look to play spoiler against their old team.

The Aces won’t know their first-round opponent until after Thursday’s game. Possibilities include the Indiana Fever (24-20), who will be without Clark the rest of the season due to a groin injury, the Golden State Valkyries (23-20) and the Seattle Storm (23-21).

The Aces’ first playoff game will be Sunday at Michelob Ultra Arena, according to the team.

Contact Callie Fin at cfin@reviewjournal.com. Follow @CallieJLaw on X.