Minnesota Lynx vs Golden State Valkyries » Winsidr

Are you ready for some playoff basketball??

As the WNBA Playoffs begin, one of the matchups we will see in the best-of-three first round is between the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx and the eighth-seeded Golden State Valkyries.

During the regular season, Minnesota had its way with Golden State, sweeping the four-game season series.

June 1: Lynx win 86-75 at Chase Center in San Francisco, CA
July 5: Lynx win 82-71 at Target Center in Minneapolis, MN
Sept. 6: Lynx win 78-72 at Chase Center in San Francisco, CA
Sept. 11: Lynx win 72-53 at Target Center in Minneapolis, MN

Before the two teams face off, we turn to our Winsidr reporters Mitchell Hansen and Jamauri Bowles to look into the series. Hansen looks at things through the lens of the Lynx, while Bowles views things from the Valkyries’ side.

Series Schedule:

Game 1: Target Center — 1:00 p.m. ET on Sept. 14 (ESPN)

Game 2: SAP Center — 10:00 p.m. ET on Sept. 17 (ESPN)

Game 3 (if necessary): Target Center — TBD on Sept. 19 (ESPN2)

Matchups We Can’t Wait to Watch

Mitchell: I am really looking forward to the battle of the guards in this series, as well as the overall depth of both teams and how that might play a factor (more on that below). When it comes to the guards, though, both units will play a big role in being those difference-makers that can heavily impact a series. 

On the side of Minnesota, it has Courtney Williams and Kayla McBride — both of which have struggled with consistency this season, but when they’re on, they’re on. And having Sixth Player of the Year candidate Natisha Hiedeman playing like she has been off the bench is a big advantage for the Lynx. For Golden State, the duo of Veronica Burton and Kaila Charles has been great as of late and has found some success against Minnesota in the four matchups this season. They have the ability to take games over offensively and have been the leading force for a team that has seen a constant rotation of guards taking the court. And if Tiffany Hayes (knee) manages to get healthy enough to return, that would be a big addition to the rotation for Golden State. 

Whichever guard group is able to outshine the other, I think, will play a big role in this series, and I’m looking forward to that battle of which group can be more consistent.

Jamauri: I’m thinking about both teams’ frontcourts. I find it interesting that these two teams matched up in the postseason, because I’ve held concerns around both teams having undersized frontcourts at certain points during the season. For the Lynx, Napheesa Collier and Alanna Smith are a strong starting frontcourt — they are really good individual defenders, can score from all over the court, and I think they are a more effective frontcourt than Temi Fágbénlé and Iliana Rupert. Smith is in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year, while Collier just posted a 50-40-90 regular season in an MVP type campaign.

Also, foul trouble can play a role in this series because Smith and Fágbénlé are players who have struggled with early foul trouble in games. But the Lynx have an advantage in frontcourt depth off the bench with Jessica Shepard and Maria Kliundikova. So, the Valkyries cannot afford to be limited in frontcourt production — especially with Rupert, who shot 44.2 percent from three-point range in 21 games this season.

X-Factors

Mitchell: Depth is the biggest X-factor to me in this series. Golden State has been able to manage in-season adjustments with a rotation of players on the roster due to key injuries, but its depth is something that Minnesota could expose and an area that could play a huge role in the postseason. On the other side, the Lynx have one of the deepest rosters in the league, with a legitimate 7-8 players on the roster who could enter the game and contribute in a big way. When you have that level of depth, it’s extremely difficult to scheme against that and focus on an area or two of an opponent. 

A lot of times, your weaknesses get exposed in the playoffs as teams are able to scout you even more than they normally would in the regular season. Minnesota will attempt to take advantage of the lack of depth for Golden State, and that will be a big advantage for the Lynx. 

Jamauri: The Valkyries’ three-point shooting is important in this series. Their offense can be very hit-or-miss, since they rely so much on the three-point shot. During the regular season, Golden State made and attempted the most three-point shots in the league. However, the team finished 11th from three-point range (32.5 percent), while Minnesota led the WNBA at 37.8 percent. Also, 45.8 percent of the Valkyries’ field goal attempts were from three-point range, which also led the league.

Veronica Burton struggled from the three-point line to end the regular season, going 1-for-18 in her last six games leading up to the playoffs. There is also uncertainty around the availability of Tiffany Hayes, who shot 40.6 percent from three-point range, as she missed the final few games of the regular season with a knee injury. The Valkyries must avoid shooting poorly from three-point range in the series, especially at the rate they take those shots. If they don’t, then the task of beating the Lynx becomes even more challenging.

Bold Prediction

Mitchell: Minnesota will sweep this opening round series. 

The Golden State story is a great one. What the Valkyries have been able to do in their first year — not only bringing a new buzz to the Bay Area but also reaching the postseason in the inaugural season — is remarkable. But when it comes to the start of the playoffs, I think Golden State will have too hard a time and Minnesota is just too deep and too tough a team to pull off an upset.

My prediction is the Lynx will take care of business at home in Game 1 and won’t have to return home for a winner-take-all Game 3 after taking care of business on the road in Game 2 to sweep the series. 

Jamauri: Golden State will win Game 2.

I believe the Lynx will win this series, and I would not be surprised if they swept the Valkyries. But, I also think Golden State will be motivated to not end the season on a five-game losing streak. Despite Game 2 being held at SAP Center instead of Chase Center due to scheduling conflicts at Chase Center, I think the Valkyries win their first-ever home playoff game with the help of their fans bringing the energy of Ballhalla from San Francisco to San Jose.

Stats as of Sept. 12. Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of WNBA.com.