2025 WNBA playoff bracket: Matchups, analysis and X-factors

The 2025 WNBA regular season is in the books.

The highly-anticipated 2025 WNBA playoffs have arrived and the first-round matchups are officially locked in. It came down to the final game of the season to determine the seedings and matchups.

Will the defending champion New York Liberty repeat, following in the footsteps of the back-to-back champion Las Vegas Aces in 2022-23? Can the Minnesota Lynx claim the title they say was stolen from them in 2024 for their first since 2017? Or will the Atlanta Dream or Golden State Valkyries hoist the WNBA championship trophy for the first time in franchise history?

The journey to the title starts Sunday. Here’s a look at the first round of the 2025 WNBA playoffs (all best-of-three series), including projected starting lineups, head-to-head records and X-factors for each matchup:

MORE: Can the Minnesota Lynx channel 2017 magic and claim another championship?

No. 1 Minnesota Lynx (34-10) vs. No. 8 Golden State Valkyries (23-21)

Minnesota won the regular-season series vs. Golden State, 4-0.

Minnesota Lynx starting lineup

Head coach: Cheryl Reeve

Golden State Valkyries starting lineup

Why Minnesota Lynx could win

The Lynx have been on a mission this season coming off a controversial 2024 WNBA Finals loss to the Liberty. Minnesota not only has best the record in the league with a franchise-best 34 wins, the Lynx are in sole possession of the top-ranked offense and defense this season. Eight teams in WNBA history have accomplished both in the same season and seven went on to win a title. Napheesa Collier’s leadership has been paramount to the Lynx and her efforts landed her in the MVP conversation as she’s averaging career-highs in points (23), field-goal percentage (52.6%) and blocks (1.6). She ranks in the top 10 in points, field-goal percentage, rebounds, blocks and steals per game. The Lynx scored the highest amount of points (86.4 per game) and have held opponents to the third-lowest (77.2 ppg) this season.

Why Golden State Valkyries could win

Golden State became the first expansion team in WNBA history to make the playoffs in its inaugural season and set an all-time WNBA attendance record, selling out all 22 regular-season home games at Chase Center. Can the Valkyries take their record-breaking season a step further and secure their first playoff win or title? Golden State won’t be at full strength following a string of injuries, but the Valkyries haven’t lost their gritty nature that makes it hard for any team to score. Golden State, which has the fourth-best defensive rating, is holding opponents to the fewest overall points (76.4), the fewest points in the paint (28.8) and the lowest field-goal percentage (40.4%) in the league this season.

X-factor: Lynx at Target Center

Target Center has been a huge X-factor for the Lynx. Minnesota began the season on a 14-game home winning streak and finished with a league-best 20-2 record in Minneapolis. (Only the Dream and Storm have defeated the Lynx at home.) That’s why it was important for the Lynx to lock in the No. 1 overall seed to secure home-court advantage for the duration of the postseason. If the Lynx are able to handle business at home (like they’ve done all season), expect lots of post-victory “electric slide” celebratory dances.

Lynx vs. Valkyries schedule

Game 1: Valkyries at Lynx 1 p.m. ET Sunday (ESPN)Game 2: Lynx at Valkyries, 10 p.m. ET Wednesday (ESPN)Game 3: Valkyries at Lynx TBD Friday (ESPN2)

No. 2 Las Vegas Aces (30-14) vs. No. 7 Seattle Storm (23-21)

Las Vegas and Seattle tied in the season series, 2-2.

Las Vegas Aces starting lineup

Head coach: Becky Hammon

Seattle Storm starting lineup

Head coach: Noelle Quinn

Why Las Vegas Aces could win

No team is hotter than Las Vegas. After stumbling to a 5-7 start to the season, the 2022 and 2023 WNBA champions rebounded in epic fashion and closed the regular season on a 16-game win streak, marking the longest in franchise history. The Aces show no signs of cooling down, especially with MVP front-runner A’ja Wilson leading the league in points per game (23.4) and blocks (2.3) per game.

Why Seattle Storm could win

The Storm haven’t made things easy on themselves this season — as the last team to clinch a playoff spot following a dreadful stretch, which included a six-game losing streak — but you can never count out their formidable defense. Seattle leads the league in steals (8.5 per game) and blocks (5.1), with Gabby Williams leading the league in total steals (99) and Ezi Magbegor (96) leading in total blocks. Fourteen-year veteran Nneka Ogwumike has turned in yet another efficient season, averaging 18.3 points (ninth-best in the league) while shooting 51.9% from the field.

X-factor: Jewell Loyd hitting her stride

Six-time All-Star Jewell Loyd got off to a slow start this season, averaging 11 points at the WNBA All-Star break, marking her lowest output since her rookie campaign in 2015. Aces head coach Becky Hammon decided to move Loyd to the bench, which she was on board with and benefitted from. Loyd exploded for seven of the Aces’ 22 3-pointers in a blowout win over the Los Angeles Sparks on Thursday to lock in the No. 2 seed. Look out if Loyd continues to play like this.

Aces vs. Storm schedule

Game 1: Storm at Aces, 10 p.m. ET Sunday (ESPN)Game 2: Aces at Storm, 9:30 ET Tuesday (ESPN)Game 3: Storm at Aces, TBD Thursday (ESPN2)

No. 3 Atlanta Dream (30-14) vs. No. 6 Indiana Fever (24-20)

Atlanta and Indiana tied the season series, 2-2.

Atlanta Dream starting lineup

Head coach: Karl Smesko

Indiana Fever starting lineup

Head coach: Stephanie White

Why Atlanta Dream could win

The Atlanta Dream recorded a franchise-high 30 wins this season, doubling their win total from last season, and their success is due to the ability to dominate both sides of the ball with the second-best offensive (108.2) and defensive (99.2) rating in the league. Not only does Atlanta have the most rebounds (36.6 per game) this season, it’s holding opponents to the second-fewest points per game (76.8). Guard Allisha Gray is also averaging a career-high 18.4 points and guard Rhyne Howard became the ninth player in WNBA history to record 100-plus 3-pointers in a season.

Why the Indiana Fever could win

If this season has taught us anything, it’s that the Fever are resilient. The Fever have had a carousel of players this year after losing five (!) for the season due to injuries, none greater than the loss of guard Caitlin Clark, who played in 13 games this year. Indiana may be down, but it’s not out. The Fever closed the regular season on a three-game win streak, including an impressive 83-72 win over the league-leading Lynx on Sept. 9. (To be fair, Minnesota was without Napheesa Collier.) Indiana is averaging 84.9 points per game (third-best in the league) behind Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston.

X-factor: Brittney Griner off the bench

Atlanta coach of the Year candidate Karl Smesko recently moved veteran center Brittney Griner to the bench for the first time in her career, a risky move that has paid off. Atlanta’s bench has only averaged 19.2 points per game, fourth-worst in the league, but Griner’s addition has added another dimension to the Dream’s bench. Griner had 17 points and four blocks off the bench in the Dream’s regular-season finale win over the Connecticut Sun.

Dream vs. Fever schedule

Game 1: Fever at Mercury, 3 p.m. ET Sunday (ABC)Game 2: Mercury at Fever, 7:30 p.m. ET Tuesday (ESPN)Game 3: Fever at Mercury, TBD Thursday (ESPN2)

No. 4 Phoenix Mercury (27-17) vs. No. 5 New York Liberty (27-17)

Phoenix won the regular-season series vs. New York, 3-1.

Phoenix Mercury starting lineup

Head coach: Nate Tibbetts

New York Liberty starting lineup

Head coach: Sandy Brondello

Why Phoenix Mercury could win

The Mercury’s depth is its superpower. Phoenix leads the league in bench points per game (24.9), with the second unit being led by the likes of Sami Whitcomb and DeWanna Bonner — who was part of the Mercury’s 2014 championship team that was coached by Brondello. Any player can go off and the Mercury thrive when sharing the ball — the Mercury are 13-0 when at least five Mercury players score in double figures. Don’t forget about the Mercury’s defensive prowess. They have the third-best defensive rating (99.9) in the league, the team’s best since 2019.

Why New York Liberty could win

The New York Liberty’s title defense hasn’t gone as scripted, as a series of injuries has forced New York to field 10 different starting lineups. The Liberty’s Big 3 of Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu have played 15 games together this season, going 12-2 during that span. The championship core is back to healthy heading into the playoffs. Experience is on their side. The Liberty returned six players from their championship team, while 34.9% of the Mercury’s minutes have been played by rookies. The addition of former WNBA Finals MVP Emma Meesseman has yielded instant dividends, as she’s averaging 13.4 points and 5.1 rebounds in 12 games in New York.

X-factor: Mercury’s 3-point shooting

The Mercury have a significant advantage when their 3-point shot is falling. Phoenix is 12-1 this season when shooting 40% or better from the 3-point line and have recorded a league-leading four games with 15 or more 3-pointers, including 18 made 3-pointers in a win over the Liberty on June 27. The Mercury should feel right at home at PHX Arena after securing home-court advantage and get a boost from the home crowd. Their devoted fanbase is called the X-factor, after all.

Mercury vs. Liberty schedule

Game 1: Liberty at Mercury, 5 p.m. ET Sunday (ESPN)Game 2: Mercury at Liberty, 8 p.m. ET Wednesday (ESPN)Game 3: Liberty at Mercury, TBD Friday (ESPN2)

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