Game 1 against the Indiana Fever is a must-win for the Atlanta Dream

When Game 1 of the first-round WNBA playoff series between the No. 3-seed Atlanta Dream and No. 6-seed Indiana Fever tips off on Sunday afternoon (3 p.m. ET, ABC), it will be the first time the teams have faced off since July 11.

A lot has changed in the more than two months since the fourth and final regular-season game between the two squads that split their season series 2-2.

On the Indiana side, the transformation, mostly unwitting, has been obvious. The 2025 season has been defined by injuries and adversity.

Yet, most of that had yet to come when they faced the Dream. Caitlin Clark played three of her 13 total games against Atlanta. DeWanna Bonner also was still in a Fever uniform for three contests against the Dream. Sophie Cunningham and Sydney Colson suffered season-ending injuries since the conclusion of the season series with the Dream, as did Aari McDonald, who was a member of the team for two games against Atlanta. There was no thought of Odyssey Sims, Aerial Powers or Shey Peddy joining the team last time the Fever played the Dream. However, all three are now key contributors, filling out head coach Stephanie White’s injury-ravaged rotation.

Atlanta has undergone their own makeover since mid-July. Yet, in contrast to their first-round opponent, it was not one of desperate necessity, but intentional discovery.

Over the course of the season, Atlanta steadily has acclimated to head coach Karl Smesko’s space-and-pace offensive system. In all four games against Indy, Brittney Griner was a featured part of the Atlanta rotation, with her highest single-game minute total and second-highest scoring game coming in Indiana. As the Dream have developed their identity, Griner’s role has been minimized in favor of AP Sixth Player of the Year Naz Hillmon, who first supercharged Atlanta as a reserve before becoming a regular starter.

But back in Atlanta’s first two games against Indiana, both held in May, Hillmon played 10 minutes combined. The most she played against the Fever was 25 minutes, and she scored a total of 12 points across the four contests. Compare that to Hillmon’s post-All-Star production, when she has logged more than 30 minutes per game, averaging 10 points, 7.4 boards and almost three assists. The Dream also outscored opponents by a team-best 7.6 points per game in Hillmon’s minutes.

Hillmon, thus, is the x factor for Atlanta.

While the combined scoring punch of AP All-WNBA First Teamer Allisha Gray and reigning WNBA Eastern Conference Player of the Week Rhyne Howard, the pace-pushing penetration of Jordin Canada and the reliable work on the boards and the block from Brionna Jones certainly will be determinative to Atlanta’s success, it’s Hillmon’s masterful play on the margins that takes the Dream from a good team to a great one—and one that should be unfamiliar to the visiting Fever. If Hillmon executes her “star in her role” power—extending possessions with offensive rebounds, finding a crease in the defense and cutting to the basket for easy scores, fighting for loose balls, taking and making open 3s, communicating defensive assignments and more—the Dream will introduce the Fever to the version of themselves that Indiana did not witness in the four regular-season matchups.

With the new 1-1-1 first-round format, where the road team guaranteed to host Game 2, winning Game 1 becomes even more of a necessity for an Atlanta team that, despite making their third-straight playoff appearance, is inexperienced operating as the favored team in the pressurized postseason environment. In the two previous postseasons, Atlanta was supposed to lose. And they did, failing to win a first-round game in 2023 or 2024. Securing the franchise’s first playoff win since 2018 avoids the nightmare scenario of going to Gainbridge Fieldhouse, one of the most overwhelming homecourt advantages in the league, for Game 2 down 0-1. (Cue all that Atlanta sports trauma!)

Of course, that’s the exact plan that Indy intends actualize. And to make it happen, they’ll be happy to put the ball in Kelsey Mitchell’s hands.

For all the uncertainty has surrounded the Fever this season, Mitchell, also an AP All-WNBA First Team selection, has been a constant. Our Zack Ward just rhapsodized about how Mitchell’s underrated excellence earned the Fever a second-straight trip to the postseason, and could help them extend their stay. Atlanta did hold Mitchell below her season scoring and shooting averages across the four regular-season games, although an efficient 25-point outburst with three 3s—the kind of performance than makes her such a scary playoff opponent—did help Indy run away from Atlanta in their July 11th win.

Behind Mitchell, as well as fellow season-long stalwarts Aliyah Boston and Natasha Howard, Indiana will arrive in Atlanta for Game 1 having one their final three regular-season games by an average margin of 20 points. The Dream have been even hotter, winning six-straight games by better than 18 points.

However, everything refreshes on Sunday afternoon. Can the Dream sustain the success they’ve cultivated over the second half of the season? Or, will the depleted-but-not-deterred Fever keep finding a way to win?

No. 3-seed Atlanta Dream (0-0) vs. No. 6-seed Indiana Fever (0-0)