Bold predictions for WNBA playoff semifinals

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The 2025 WNBA season has been a defining chapter in the league’s history, marked by competitive balance, emerging stars, and established dynasties seeking to protect their legacies of dominance. As the regular season concluded, compelling playoff brackets emerged featuring top-tier teams like the Minnesota Lynx, Las Vegas Aces, New York Liberty, and Atlanta Dream. But the drama of postseason basketball lies not only in powerhouse clashes but also in the possibility of shocking upsets at the hands of a dangerous squad threatening to dethrone a team in the first round.

As the playoffs unfold, the semifinals unlock intriguing narratives and tactical matchups. Any team that survives an early threat may find itself in a high-stakes battle with one of the best the WNBA has to offer. With the first round already underway, let’s dive into some bold predictions about how the 2025 WNBA Playoff semifinal round might unfold and what factors could tilt the balance of power.

Aces-Dream showdown

One of the most compelling semifinal matchup possibilities features the Dream facing off against the two-time champion Aces. The Dream have become one of the most interesting teams in the league to watch this year as a young, defensively tenacious squad with a clear identity. With Allisha Gray emerging as a bona fide star, Rhyne Howard, Brittney Griner, and Brionna Jones providing veteran leadership, and Naz Hillmon infusing energy off the bench, Atlanta has managed to blend youthful exuberance with playoff poise.

However, their semifinal opponent enters the postseason on a tear. After a rocky start to the year, Las Vegas closed the regular season with a 16-game winning streak, propelled by the resurgence of A’ja Wilson and the continued brilliance of Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young. The Aces’ playoff pedigree is undeniable, and wth multiple Finals appearances and championship banners already raised, they are equipped for high-pressure moments.

This matchup doesn’t just pit best friends and former teammates Gray and Wilson against one another; it also pits the Dream’s gritty defense against the Aces’ dynamic offense. Atlanta thrives in the halfcourt, forcing turnovers, contesting shots, and playing physically on the perimeter. Their ability to limit second-chance points and protect the rim will be crucial to slowing down Vegas. However, the Aces’ spacing and ball movement present a unique challenge. They are capable of playing through Wilson in the post or stretching the floor with shooters like Gray. That forces the Dream to pick their poison — either allow single coverage in the paint or risk overcommitting and giving up open threes.

Home-court advantage likely gives the Aces the edge, particularly in a longer five-game series format. But Atlanta is also no stranger to road victories, having pulled off key wins against top teams throughout the campaign away from home. If the Dream can steal an early game on the road and put pressure on the Aces, the series could end up getting to a sudden-death fifth contest.

Ultimately, the Aces’ playoff experience and high-powered offense may be a lot for Atlanta to overcome. While the Dream will battle valiantly and may even force the Aces into uncomfortable territory, the Aces’ closing ability, among other aspects, should carry them to a hard-fought series victory that goes the distance.

Lynx-Liberty rematch

The second semifinal showdown will likely feature the top-seeded Lynx against the defending champion Liberty, which would put a fascinating display of styles, legacies, and narratives on the line. Minnesota has re-established itself as the league’s most balanced and consistent team. With Napheesa Collier playing at an MVP level and a deep supporting cast that includes rising talents and seasoned veterans, the Lynx have dominated both ends of the floor all season long. Their top-rated defense combined with an efficient and unselfish offense has made them the most complete team in the WNBA this campaign.

On the other hand, the Liberty enter the semifinals with slightly more uncertainty due to the way they struggled to close out the regular season. While they possess the most talented starting five on paper, which includes Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones when they’re all healthy, the Liberty have struggled with chemistry, consistency, and injuries throughout the year. Now, even Stewart’s ability to take the court is once again in question after just one playoff game versus the Phoenix Mercury. New York’s path to the semifinals may include a draining first-round battle, which could leave the team physically and emotionally depleted against a rested Lynx squad.

The direction this matchup would go in depends on the pace and physicality level each side brings. Minnesota prefers to grind it out, leveraging its defensive structure to suffocate opponents and control the tempo. The Liberty, on the other hand, are at their best when pushing in transition, creating mismatches through spacing, and shooting confidently. The team that can impose its rhythm will likely be the one to win the series.

One key battleground will be the paint. Collier’s versatility on both ends makes her a difficult assignment for New York and, specifically, Jones or Emma Meesseman if they are forced to guard her one-on-one. The Liberty would also need to find ways to neutralize the Lynx’s rebounding advantage and prevent second-chance points, which are areas where they have occasionally faltered this season.

Although the Liberty’s star power and combined experience, especially in the playoffs, make them dangerous, Minnesota’s cohesion, coaching, and expanding depth provide a strong advantage. The Lynx are unlikely to get rattled, and their ability to execute under pressure should help them to win the series in less than five games. However, if Stewart and Ionescu can both stay healthy and deliver transcendent performances, and if role players like Natasha Cloud and Marine Johannes contribute meaningfully, New York could push the series to five or even end up stealing it. But without any major shifts or unexpected lucky breaks in the Liberty’s favor, the Lynx should emerge victorious.

Can the Mercury upset the Liberty?

The most logical unexpected possibility in the first round is the potential upset of fifth-seeded New York by fourth-seeded Phoenix. It may not appear to be an upset since the Mercury are technically the higher seed, and this series may initially look balanced based on paper, but the context of each team’s trajectory tells a different story. The Liberty entered the playoffs after starting the campaign on a hot winning streak but ending with an uneven stretch of performances. Injuries to key contributors and inconsistent play were their biggest hindrances, and although they still have elite talents on their roster, some of those issues still linger. New York’s ability to carry the load in a condensed series may be limited by wear and tear accumulated over the long and intense season.

Meanwhile, the Mercury have quietly put together one of the most dynamic offenses in the W. When firing on all cylinders, they are capable of outshooting even the most defensively solid opponents, and their success largely relies on perimeter efficiency and tempo control. If the squad can disrupt the Liberty’s rhythm and force them out of their comfort zone, Phoenix has the tools to win.

Additionally, the best-of-three format in the first round favors underdogs, especially since the Mercury have home-court advantage. A single poor performance from New York or a game-breaking effort from Phoenix can swing the series away from 2024’s title winners. The Mercury will need to capitalize on fast breaks, win the rebounding battle, and suppress the impact of all the stars the Liberty boast through double teams and physical post play. An upset is far from impossible, and if the Mercury pull it off, it would create a domino effect throughout the remainder of the postseason.

If the Mercury shock the Liberty in the first round, the entire dynamic of the semifinal and final rounds would shift. The Mercury would then face the Lynx in the second round, which would be even more favorable for Minnesota. Phoenix’s reliance on perimeter scoring would play into the Lynx’s defensive strengths, especially with their ability to close out on shooters and force heavily contested looks.

The 2025 WNBA Playoffs promise to be a defining moment in the league’s evolution, overflowing with storylines, elite talent, and dramatic confrontations. From a possible Mercury upset of the Liberty to hard-fought semifinal clashes between the Dream and Aces, this postseason has all the ingredients of a classic in the making. The Dream bring hunger and defensive grit, the Aces possess battle-tested championship resolve, the Liberty stand out for their star-driven urgency to repeat, and the Lynx utilize their impressive consistency to try to avenge last year’s heartbreaking Finals loss.

While upsets may occur and momentum can shift rapidly in playoff basketball, the most likely scenario points toward these semifinal clashes. Regardless of the final outcome, the 2025 WNBA Playoffs confirm that the league’s growing competitiveness and the thrilling unpredictability are part of what defines the best of postseason sports.

Related: Valkyries HC Natalie Nakase blasts the officiating in blowout Game 1 loss to Lynx

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