2025 WNBA playoff bracket: Semifinal matchups, X-factors, lineups

And then there were four.

The No. 1 Minnesota Lynx, No. 2 Las Vegas Aces, No. 4 Phoenix Mercury and No. 6 Indiana Fever have punched their tickets to the 2025 WNBA semifinals. If the first round was any indication, the semis should by exciting. Three of the four first-round series went to a decisive Game 3 and were won by a combined 10 points. (There were three first-round Game 3s total in the last four years.)

The semifinals tip off on Sunday and will move to a best-of-five (2-2-1) format. The 2025 WNBA Finals will be a best-of-seven (2-2-1-1-1) format for the first time in league history.

The journey to the title continues on Sunday. Here’s a look at the semifinal round of the 2025 WNBA playoffs, including projected starting lineups, head-to-head records and X factors for each matchup:

No. 1 Minnesota Lynx (34-10) vs. No. 4 Phoenix Mercury (27-17)

Minnesota won the regular-season series vs. Phoenix, 3-1.

Minnesota Lynx starting lineup

Head coach: Cheryl Reeve

Phoenix Mercury starting lineup

Head coach: Nate Tibbetts

Why Minnesota Lynx could win

The Lynx are battle tested. After trailing the scrappy Golden State Valkyries by 17 points in Game 2 of the first-round series, the Lynx didn’t panic. Instead, they clawed their way back to complete an epic comeback and swept the Valkyries by winning the clincher on the road. It not only highlighted Minnesota’s experience, maturity and wisdom, it also showed the Lynx will stop at nothing to reach their championship goal. Minnesota returned six players from last year’s WNBA Finals roster, tying the Liberty, Dream and Aces for the most continuity. And they’re fueled by their “belief in each other,” Cheryl Reeve said, and the “power of friendship,” Co-Defensive Player of the Year Alanna Smith added. “We have the experience of hard games. We’ve been tried and tested. Especially last year we went through (the Finals) and have our core team back,” Napheesa Collier said. Watch out everyone. The Lynx are coming for what was “stolen” from them.

Why Phoenix Mercury could win

The Mercury dropped Game 1 against the defending champion New York Liberty in devastating fashion after forward Alyssa Thomas missed a game-winning layup in the final seconds. Phoenix regrouped and rattled off back-to-back wins to dethrone the defending champions and eliminate the Liberty from the postseason. The Mercury’s league-leading bench scored 20 points in Game 3, led by 13 points from Sami Whitcomb and four points from DeWanna Bonner, who hit a big shot to extend Phoenix’s lead to five points in the final minute. The Mercury flexed their defensive muscles in the win, outrebounding the Liberty 49-33, and can disrupt the Lynx if they can carry that aggression into the semifinals.

X factor: Mercury’s Big 3

The Mercury are 15-0 this season when their Big 3 — forward Alyssa Thomas, forward Satou Sabally and guard Kahleah Copper — score 10 or more points each, and they were spectacular in the Game 3 win. Thomas had her ninth triple-double of the season and fifth in the playoffs with 20 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists. Sabally recorded a double-double with a team-high 23 points, 12 rebounds and three assists and Copper added 12 points and nine rebounds. The veteran core is the key to taking down the league-leading Lynx.

X factor: Lynx guard Natisha Hiedeman

Hiedeman has provided the Lynx instant energy off the bench. The Sixth Player of the Year candidate averaged 18.6 points, 4.4 assists and two steals in the final five games of the regular season and carried that momentum into the first round of the playoffs, where she put up 18 points in Game 1 and followed that performance up with seven assists in Game 2. Coach Cheryl Reeve said Hiedeman is “playing at a different level” and “playing her best basketball this season.” The Lynx will need every bit to hoist the WNBA trophy.

Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury semifinal schedule

Game 1: Mercury at Lynx, Sunday, Sept. 21 | 5 p.m. ET (ESPN)Game 2: Mercury at Lynx, Tuesday, Sept. 23 | 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)Game 3: Lynx at Mercury, Friday, Sept. 26 | 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN 2)Game 4 (if necessary): Lynx at Mercury, Sunday, Sept. 28 | TBD (TBD)Game 5 (if necessary): Mercury at Lynx, Tuesday, Sept. 30 | TBD (TBD)

No. 2 Las Vegas Aces (30-14) vs. No. 6 Indiana Fever (24-20)

The Fever won the regular-season series vs. the Aces, 2-1

Las Vegas Aces starting lineup

Head coach: Becky Hammon

Indiana Fever starting lineup

Head coach: Stephanie White

Why the Las Vegas Aces could win

Two words. A’ja Wilson. Wilson has been borderline unstoppable, claiming Co-Defensive Player of the Year, with her fourth MVP award likely coming next. Wilson scored more than half of the Aces’ points in their 74-73 Game 3 win over the Seattle Storm to secure Las Vegas’ seventh consecutive semifinal appearance, finishing with 38 points, five rebounds, three assists, three steals and two blocks. Her 38-point performance tied her playoff career high and marked her sixth career 30-plus-point playoff performance, tied for third most in WNBA history. “It didn’t matter who guarded her. Tonight she was just on a heater,” Aces head coach Becky Hammon said. Indiana won the regular-season series over the Aces, but the teams last faced each other in late July and Hammon said the Fever “haven’t seen the real Aces yet.”

Why the Indiana Fever could win

The Indiana Fever continue to do the unthinkable. After getting blown out by the Atlanta Dream in Game 1, the gritty Fever went on to win the next two games, capped by a gutsy last-minute comeback in Game 3. It was Indiana’s first playoff series victory in a decade. The Fever have been resilient after losing five players — Chloe Bibby (left knee), Caitlin Clark (right groin), Sydney Colson (left knee), Sophie Cunningham (right knee) and Aari McDonald (right foot) — for the season. Their do-or-die mentality has kept their Cinderella season alive. Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell has led the charge, averaging 23 points in the first-round series vs. the Dream. The Fever’s defense fuels their offense, and if Indiana can get some stops and get out in transition, it can make things difficult for the Aces.

X factor: Aces’ bench

The Aces always have a chance with Wilson on the floor, but the three-time MVP will need some help if they want to win their third WNBA championship in four years. Wilson, Jackie Young (14 points) and Chelsea Gray (12 points) combined for 64 of the Aces’ 74 points in their Game 3 win, which is not sustainable as the Aces go deeper into the postseason. Six-time All-Star Jewell Loyd leads the second unit and will be key in taking a load off the Aces’ Big 3. Loyd had 14 and 13 points in Game 1 and Game 2, respectively, but was held to four points on four shot attempts (2-of-4 from the field, no 3-point attempts) in over 29 minutes of play in Game 3. That can’t happen moving forward.

X factor: Aliyah Boston

Boston will likely have the difficult task of guarding A’ja Wilson, her fellow South Carolina alum. Boston has faced her fair share of physicality this season, but she must help the Fever shore up the interior defense to keep Wilson and company out of the paint. The Fever gave up 56 points in the paint in their Game 3 win over the Dream, including 40 alone in the first quarter, a WNBA playoff record.

Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever semifinal schedule

Game 1: Fever at Aces, Sunday, Sept. 21 | 3 p.m. ET (ABC)Game 2: Fever at Aces, Tuesday, Sept. 23 | 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)Game 3: Aces at Fever, Friday, Sept. 26 | TBD (ESPN2)Game 4 (if necessary): Aces at Fever, Sunday, Sept. 28 | 3 p.m. ET (ABC)Game 5 (if necessary): Fever at Aces, Tuesday, Sept: 30 | TBD (TBD)

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