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The first round of the 2025 WNBA playoffs delivered a number of incredible games, including three winner-take-all Game 3 thrillers. Now, the field is set for the best-of-five semifinals, which get underway on Sunday. The top-seeded Minnesota Lynx will take on the Phoenix Mercury, while the Las Vegas Aces will battle the Indiana Fever — the only lower seed to advance.Â
Here’s a quick look at Sunday’s schedule:
Previously, our experts made their picks for which teams would advance to the semis. Now, it’s time to try and predict the future again. Which two teams will get to the Finals? Here’s what our panel has to say:
No. 1 Minnesota Lynx vs. No. 4 Phoenix MercuryÂ
Series odds (via Caesars): Lynx -700, Mercury +500
Ayala: Lynx in 4. As I said on “We Need To Talk Now” Saturday, although the Lynx are built for length like the Liberty, I think Minnesota will handle the Mercury’s physical play better than New York did in the first round. Additionally, the Lynx are on a mission to avenge what they believe was a controversial Game 5 loss in the 2024 WNBA Finals.Â
Gibbs: Lynx in 5. While the Lynx won the regular-season series against the Mercury 3-1, Phoenix didn’t have Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas for any of those four games. And they haven’t played since July 16, so you can’t read too much into those games. Sabally and AT have looked phenomenal the past two games and will push the Lynx to the brink in what I believe will be an epic series, but the Lynx’s defense and determination will prevail.
Gonzalez: Lynx in 5. The Mercury’s energy and hustle in the first round were impressive. I do think they will bring some of that against the Lynx, but Minnesota has been the most complete team all season and won three out of four meetings against Phoenix. Being one step closer to a title, I don’t think the Lynx will get any easier to take down.
Maloney: Lynx in 4Â The Mercury are an interesting team. They have as much top-tier talent as anyone in the league, and their toughness and physicality are difficult for any opponent to deal with. There’s a path to an upset here for them if they can frustrate the Lynx and make a lot of 3s. Too often, though, their offense goes into major lulls, which the Lynx will punish. The Lynx have been the best team in the league, on both sides of the ball, all season long, and have home-court advantage. At the Target Center this season, they were 20-2 with a plus-16.8 net rating. The Mercury won’t be an easy out, but the Lynx are just better.Â
No. 2 Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 6 Indiana Fever
Series odds (via Caesars): Aces -1200, Fever +750
Ayala: Aces in 5. Las Vegas’ 17-game winning streak proved Becky Hammon’s team can lock in when needed. Being taken to the final possession of the first round by the Seattle Storm might be the wake-up call the Aces need to get back into championship mode.Â
Gibbs: Aces in 4. The Fever made me look foolish in round one, and so I’m hesitant to pick against them again, but the Aces are too experienced and dynamic to have a clutch-time meltdown like the Dream did. The Fever will stay competitive and win a game, but ultimately A’ja Wilson will be too much for the shorthanded Fever to stop.
Gonzalez: Aces in 4. The Fever deserve a lot of respect for reaching the semifinals despite all the injuries. However, the Aces are a dangerous team after losing. Their 17-game winning streak was snapped during Game 2 against Seattle, and they almost lost Game 3 had it not been for Jackie Young coming in clutch. The way Becky Hammon and A’ja Wilson run this team, I expect them to turn up the intensity for this series.Â
Maloney: Aces in 4. The Aces were the consensus pre-playoffs pick to get to the Finals from this side of the bracket, and are even bigger favorites now that the Fever have upset the Dream. Per Caesars, the Aces are -1200 to win this best-of-five matchup. The Fever’s never-say-die attitude has been extremely impressive, but this feels like too big a hill to climb. The Aces just have too much talent.
