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Patrick Mahomes has never been here before. Lose to the Ravens on Sunday, and his Kansas City Chiefs will sink to 1-3, falling further behind the Chargers in the AFC West, a division Kansas City have owned for nearly a decade.
After three weeks of the season, it’s clear: these are not the Chiefs of old. And Mahomes, while still dazzling in moments, is not the irrepressible force he was three years ago.
There is a different tenor about the Chiefs these days. At the peak of their championship run, they didn’t just beat opponents, they demoralized them. Their offense was explosive and creative. Putting up 30-plus points felt inevitable. Now, everything is a grind. Anything outside Mahomes freelancing looks like hard work. We’re into year two of the Chiefs being stodgy and methodical. The bombs away style of early Mahomes has made way for a more plodding approach as they look to paper over the cracks of a diminished roster.
Many Chiefs fans won’t care – they will point to the glaring fact that the Chiefs made the Super Bowl last season, despite the fact that they lacked the fireworks of old. Rivals fans may welcome the struggles. Over the past few seasons, Mahomes and the Chiefs have gone from fun upstarts to villains. As well as their off-field failings, they have been overexposed. Their aging tight end is effectively the face of the league. They’ve been in primetime too long and have been the beneficiary of too many officiating calls. As the Chiefs have won and won and won, they have moved from a compelling sports story into a pop-cultural force.
As the team’s cultural footprint has expanded, Mahomes has had to slog through the last two seasons. For most of his career, Mahomes has been different from other Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks. He played with a sense of childlike glee, as if he were discovering his own brilliance at the same time we were. There were the jaw-dropping throws, the how-did-he-do-it comebacks, 13 seconds, Jet Chip Wasp, fourth-and-nine, the no-look throws, the behind-the-back throw, winning the Super Bowl on one leg, the unimaginable made possible. Every week, it felt like he was discovering new ways to play the game.
In the early Mahomes years, the Chiefs’ offense was thrilling and visceral. At its best – when the aggressive plays, speedy weapons, and up-tempo pace worked in unison – the offense was less about executing football plays and more about waging psychological warfare. There was no way to cover Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. If opponents could stop the duo, Mahomes would buy time until one of them eventually sprang open. It was a parade of chunk plays.
But as defenses have adapted to limit Mahomes’ ability to chuck the ball downfield, the Chiefs have leaned into a more restricted style. They’re happy to hold on to the ball, to piece together drives in five-yard increments. Last season, that was effective enough to make the Super Bowl again. But this year feels different. It looks different, too. Last year was a byproduct of poor roster management. KC bet on Kelce a year too long. Rookie Xavier Worthy took time to onboard in the Hill role. The left tackle spot was a sinkhole that corrupted the entire offensive line. Despite winning 15 games in the regular season, the Chiefs wheezed through 11 one-score games and didn’t total more than 30 points in a single game. The offense was a chore to watch, but they found a way.
That was supposed to be a down year. In the offseason, they would regroup, retool and rediscover the old flair. But the same issues that undercut them a year ago are still present: Mahomes has no supporting run game to ease the pressure on him, his top-two wide receivers – Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice – are out, and Kelce continues to be the fulcrum of the offense at age 35. There is a lack of rhythm and synchronicity. A much-promised overhaul to last year’s scheme has yet to materialize.
Defenses continue to crowd the middle of the field and dare Mahomes to be patient. Andy Reid’s counterpunch has been uninspired: grind out plays and hope Mahomes saves things late. This year, 65% of Mahomes’ throws have been below 10 yards, up from last year. He is getting rid of the ball a full half-second quicker than his career average, too, to offset his fragile offensive line.
It’s the ordinariness that stings. Their defense is still masterminded by the brilliant Steve Spagnuolo but, on offense, the Chiefs sit below the Texans and Steelers in explosive play rate through three weeks. Mahomes’ best moments, those explosions of old, have come not through design but desperation.
And Mahomes has been inconsistent, flashes of his genius tempered by basic miscues. He has played better than the box score would suggest. But he’s also left plenty of meat on the bone.
Schlepping through games has at least revealed a new side to Mahomes. He’s in his defiant era. He is mean-mugging defenders after plays and lowering his shoulder in the open field to squeeze out an extra couple of yards. Asking Mahomes to drill a tackler was not worth the risk three years ago. Now, the Chiefs need him to fight for every yard.
Winning a game with practice-squad receivers and a nonfunctional run game is, in itself, a testament to Mahomes’ greatness. He is duct-taping together competence; Mahomes leads the team in rushing yards and the league in quarterback scrambles. A late toss from Mahomes to Tyquan Thornton last week got the Chiefs’ season back on track. But slogging to a win against the hapless Giants is hardly the stuff of a true contender.
In some ways, this is the natural life cycle of a dynasty. The Brady-Belichick Patriots won the Super Bowl in the 2004 season and didn’t claim another until the 2014 campaign. There were stretches of mediocrity, streaks where even Brady looked overwhelmed by age, coaching turnover, or a depleted supporting cast. But the greats bend reality and reset expectations. A bad year in Foxborough meant 11 wins and a divisional-round loss. Mahomes has spent his career living in that same rarefied air. Every season of his career as a starter has ended in an AFC Championship Game or a Super Bowl.
With a salary cap and draft, no one can win every year. It’s to Mahomes’ credit that he was able to drag last year’s team to the Super Bowl. He seemed to be resetting expectations again. Even when the Chiefs look vulnerable, even when things aren’t clicking, they make it to the final game.
Mahomes turned 30 last week. He left his 20s as the most decorated quarterback in history by that age: three Super Bowl wins, three Super Bowl MVPs, two league MVPs, six Pro Bowl nods, two first-team All-Pro selections. He has been both a relentless winner and one of the sport’s great innovators. But as he’s turned 30, he’s entered the most trying period of his career. The Chiefs haven’t given him the tools to play at his melodic best, and he’s been forced to effort through games with an uncommon national glare.
Soon enough, Rice and Worthy will return from suspension and injury respectively. And the Chiefs could be the Chiefs again – after all, the Patriots’ drought from 2004 to 2014 was followed by another two championships. But right now, they feel joyless, and so does Mahomes. There may be no greater sporting crime than making Mahomes dull.
