Exploring Why Warriors’ Defense Is Faltering After Jimmy Butler’s Candid Comments

After the Golden State Warriors’ 127-123 NBA Cup loss to the Portland Trail Blazers, Jimmy Butler had a candid take on the team’s defense.

“We’re just not guarding nobody. From what I can tell, I haven’t been here long, but that’s never been the formula here.”

What is the source of the defensive downturn? Let’s dive in.

Main Sources of the Defensive Downturn

From Butler’s first game to end of the season last year, the Warriors had the No. 1 defensive rating in the NBA (109.0). This year, it ranks 10th (112.2).

The following stats are part of the problem:

The turnovers (leading to more transition points allowed) have felt like the bigger issue. But on Friday against the Trail Blazers, the rebounding was the bigger issue.

Portland outrebounded Golden State 52-32, and that led to a 28-10 advantage in second-chance points.

With such similar personnel year over year, it is hard to pinpoint where things have gone wrong. But the numbers tell a story.

Last year, lineups with Buddy Hield or Gary Payton II rebounded poorly. This year, those lineups are rebounding even worse.

But the big surprise has been Al Horford. In theory, he should be helping the Warriors rebound with his experience as a defensive anchor, but opponents are rebounding 6.1 percent more of their misses with Horford in the game than when he’s out. That’s a massive number, and it makes you wonder if the Dubs should have used their taxpayer mid-level exception a younger, more athletic big with more potential for rebounds than a veteran stretch-5 like Horford.

Horford’s total rebound percentage is a career-low 10.3, and that suggests the 39-year-old has lost a step.

But It’s Deeper Than Just Rebounds and Turnovers

The Warriors are not stopping the ball. Deni Avdija should not be getting downhill constantly en route to 26 points and 14 assists. It feels like almost every game, dribble penetration is crushing Golden State.

This issue is somewhat personnel-based and somewhat focus-based.

The Warriors don’t have an elite on-ball stopper. Payton was that guy in 2022, but he’s not close that to level anymore. They have a few serviceable options, but they don’t have, say, Alex Caruso or Jalen Suggs or Amen Thompson.

The focus part is more frustrating. You expect Hield to make a mistake here or there, but you don’t expect Stephen Curry to give up back cuts to Camara and Avdija in the last five minutes that lead directly to a layup and a back-breaking three.

I’m guessing this issue will look better in the coming weeks when the team is a bit fresher, but it’s not going to be a strength unless a trade is made.

How to Fix the Issues

I’m sure Steve Kerr isn’t panicking yet, as we’re only a month into the season. But the Warriors have a lot of issues, and it feels like they need a trade to plug some holes.

They could use:

– An elite point-of-attack defender- Someone who can score in the paint, as they are last in points in the paint per game- A big who swallows rebounds- A three-and-D wing

They are not going to get all these things at the trade deadline, but if they can fix two of these things, then maybe they can mask the other issues better.

For example, I suggested that Ivica Zubac could be a trade target. He’d score in the paint and swallow rebounds, and perhaps that would be enough to slightly improve the team’s offense and defense. Suddenly a few these losses would be wins.

I also suggested trading for Herb Jones. Jones is a very good defender who knocks down threes. I’m not sure he would outright fix the point-of-attack issue, but being a bit better there would go a long way.