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Entering Week 13 of the 2025 College Football season, Utah was still in the hunt for the Big 12 Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. How did their matchup with the Kansas State Wildcats, and various other results, impact the Utes?
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Utah’s chances of making it to the Big 12 Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Utah’s Big 12 Championship Game Chances
Ahead of Week 13, PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gave Utah a 14.7% chance of playing in the Big 12 Championship Game. Following a 98-point classic against the Wildcats, which for the most part looked like it would result in a loss, the Utes have a 21.4% chance of making it to the title game.
The Utes have had a strong year. They’re 9-2 overall and 6-2 in the conference, with a good chance to win out and finish the season at 10-2 and 7-2, respectively. However, Utah’s two conference losses came against the league’s two front-runners: Texas Tech and BYU.
The disparity between Utah’s success against every other conference team and Utah’s performance against TTU and BYU is astounding. In every other conference game, except for the four-point win over Kansas State in Week 13, the Utes won by at least 27 points. They lost by three scores to Texas Tech and lost 21-24 to BYU.
Simply by caliber, it’s clear that Utah is at the very least in a similar tier to Texas Tech and BYU, and the CFB Playoff committee agrees at this stage. But in most scenarios where either Texas Tech or BYU gets a second loss before season’s end, Utah is still blocked out from the title game because of the head-to-head numbers.
Having said all this, there is a joker in the conversation who could mix things up, if BYU and/or Texas Tech slip up, and that’s Arizona State. The Sun Devils have a head-to-head win over Texas Tech, which would give them the numbers advantage in equal-win situations against the conference’s two best teams.
If Texas Tech and BYU both lose out, and Arizona State wins out, a title game clash between Utah and Arizona State is possible. But that outcome appears very unlikely, as both BYU and Texas Tech have extremely winnable games in their final week.
Utah’s most reasonable chance would be wishing for BYU to lose out, while the Utes win out. But BYU would have to drop the ball against a UCF squad that’s in the bottom three in the conference. UCF played a two-loss Houston team close a couple of weeks ago in a 30-27 loss, but will play BYU in Provo.
In summation, the Utes are still mathematically in the hunt, but their window to break into the title game is closing. That ultimately could be a good thing for them, however, as they eye the CFB Playoff.
What are Utah’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team. The PFSN College FPM gives Utah a 22.7% chance of making the College Football Playoff. They make the Big 12 Championship Game in 21.4% of simulations, and win the conference in 8.5% of simulations. That leaves them with a 14.2% chance of earning an “At-Large” selection.
Utah is currently ranked 12th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings, one spot behind conference competitor BYU. The Utes are still on the outside looking in for the CFB Playoff, but a third loss would surely knock them just outside the bracketology conversation.
If the Utes win out and miss the Big 12 title game regardless — as is most likely — they’ll still be situated with just two losses. They’d still need things to go their way on Conference Championship weekend, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that continued conference in-fighting across the nation could help Utah sneak in.
Our simulations also give Utah a 5.9% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 2.2% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.8% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
