NCAAW: Led by sophomores, is Michigan a true title contender?

The contemporary college basketball landscape has been described as a jungle, with fewer and fewer rules by the day. Between the transfer portal, extensive redshirt and eligibility loopholes and midseason acquisitions, teams are morphing themselves at a never seen before rate. Seesawing over whether an exploitative relationship with the transfer portal is “moral” in the basketball world is not a debate that I’m willing to indulge.

However, for the traditionalists swearing by four-year seniors and roster carryover, No. 8 Michigan is quite a sight to behold.

Michigan’s four leading scorers, each averaging double-digit points per game, are all returning sophomores.

Syla Swords, the Wolverines’ second-leading scorer, is the only one of those four who’s taken a dip in scoring output. She’s still averaging 14 points per game on similar efficiency to her freshman season, but has forfeited some of her volume as the team introduces new options. Olivia Olson, Mila Holloway, and Te’Yala Delfosse have all improved upon their first-year averages, and none more notable than Delfosse, who is scoring 11 points per game off the bench after being a non-rotational factor as a freshman.

This isn’t to say that Michigan hasn’t reaped the familiar benefits of the transfer portal, of course. Ashley Sofilkanich has started every game at center for the Wolverines after leading the Patriot League in scoring last season at Bucknell. Kendall Dudley is producing at a more consistent rate off of Michigan’s bench than she did as a freshman at UCLA. Transfers, while by no means the backbone of their operation, play a meaningful role nonetheless.

Under head coach Kim Barnes Arico, Michigan is no stranger to the AP Top 25 poll. However, this year’s team is the first to peak in the top 10 since the 2021-2022 roster led by Naz Hillmon. Their youth is obviously enough to suggest that they will be strong contenders in the Big Ten for years to come. But what about now?

There are two titles that Michigan, like all programs, is fighting for: conference and national. A Big Ten championship trophy would mean a lot to any program that has the privilege of taking it home, but in comparison to some of the other frontrunners, Michigan should be hungrier.

The Wolverines have never won a Big Ten tournament championship, nor have they ever won a Big Ten regular-season title. They’ve also never appeared in the Big Ten championship game. They lost in the semifinal in each of the last two seasons. UCLA, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State are all more-than formidable opponents standing in their path this year.

Where Michigan’s youth impresses with promise, there’s room for real concern when it comes to postseason play. Swords and Olson are impressive scorers, but they’ve struggled to make their teammates better when the lights are brightest. In their 20-point loss to Notre Dame in the round of 32 last season, they combined for 37 points and only one assist. The rest of their team shot 7-for-25.

The then-freshman duo shared the ball better in their Big Ten Tournament loss to USC, but Michigan struggled to match the size of Kiki Iriafen. Sofilkanich is a notable addition to their defensive line, but is she good enough to match up with an All-American big like UCLA’s Lauren Betts? It’s hard to picture her being that much of a difference.

Michigan is absolutely better than they were last season. The transcendent development of their underclassman core is an impressive feat, and they’ve only dropped two games through their first 16 contests. Ironically, one of their losses may have been their most promising performance thus far. Swords and Olson combined for 47 points in a three-point loss to defending national champions UConn, who were saved by an Azzi Fudd seven 3-pointer masterclass. I won’t be too graceful by ignoring their recent 12-point loss to Washington, but the UConn loss was a season highlight.

Without a dynamic frontcourt or competitive national tournament experience, it’s hard to picture the Wolverines clawing their way through three or more rounds in March Madness.

However, the Big Ten tournament will be a big moment for the program. Whether or not Swords and Olson can find a way over the hump and take down ranked opponents in their path will be a big sign of Michigan’s potency in years, and tournaments, to come. While their upcoming conference play schedule isn’t too eye-catching, they end the year with six top-20 opponents in seven games. At worst, that stretch will tell us whether or not Michigan is ready for the Big Ten tournament stage. At best, it will remind us that their sights are set as high as ever.