Remco Evenepoel and Isaac del Toro face off in major GC clash – Analysing the UAE Tour favourites

WorldTour racing resumes in next week at the seven-stage UAE Tour, with some of the top riders in the peloton set to face off for the red jersey, but it’s Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hanshrohe) that the focus will be on as the favourite.

The Belgian returns to the UAE three years after claiming overall victory in 2023 ahead of Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), who will also be back in 2026, but it’s the Brit’s young Mexican teammate, Isaac del Toro, who is expected to provide the biggest challenge.

There’s no title defence from Tadej Pogačar, and Jonas Vingegaard’s planned participation was cancelled due to a recent crash and illness, but there are still several riders who will be looking to upset Evenepoel and Del Toro in the desert.

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The race typically serves as a chance for the best sprinters in the world to go head-to-head in an early dress rehearsal for the Tour de France, but with neither Tim Merlier (Soudal-QuickStep) nor Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Premier Tech) taking the start, it leaves Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek) as the obvious favourite to mop up the four flat stages.

Across the seven stages, where crosswinds can always affect the general classification, especially on the flat, exposed days – as they did in 2023 when Evenepoel took victory – the battle for red is expected to come down to the stage 2 time trial and two key climbing days.

This is the format the race has followed for several years now in the 2020s, but there is a twist for this, the eighth edition, with race organisers identifying a new climb and swapping out the typically long and drawn-out Jebel Jais ascent in favour of Jebel Morah.

At 15km in length and with the final 6km averaging a gradient of 12%, it’s expected to cause bigger gaps than are usually in play after the time trial and before the Jebel Hafeet GC decider. Arriving on day three of the race, it’s a welcome new addition to the course.

With all of that in mind, we’ve looked through the start list and picked out our favourites to take the red jersey in Abu Dhabi.

Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)

Remco Evenepoel has hit the ground running with his new team for 2026, and Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe will be hoping he keeps the momentum flowing into his first WorldTour event of the season, with that GC triumph at the 2023 edition being his last at cycling’s top level.

Of course, he has podiumed the Tour de France and won more time trial world titles since then, so it doesn’t paint the full picture, but as Evenepoel looks to close the gap to Pogačar in 2026, he needs to be winning at the same frequency.

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Still building his relationships within the new team, Evenepoel gelled well with Giulio Pellizzarri at his last race in Valenciana, with the full complement of Red Bull riders contributing to defend his lead on the last day.

The steep, hockey-stick stage-profile finishes at the UAE give less room to hide when it comes to climbing shape, which the Belgian appeared to have in abundance in Spain, so he’ll be expected to scorch away on the two key climbing days. But Del Toro does present a dangerous threat.

Expect Evenepoel to also put on an exhibition during the time trial, after missing the chance to do a proper one in Valenciana (despite still winning the TT day on his road bike and without GC consequences), which should give him a lead to defend ahead of the two mountain days.

Isaac del Toro & Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

UAE may not have their star rider, Pogačar, but Isaac del Toro is a worthy contender in his absence, with the Mexican bursting onto the scene at warp speed last season, as shown in his runner-up finish at the Giro d’Italia, and his incredible frequency of wins in the second half of the season.

One of the absolute top prospects in world cycling, 22-year-old Del Toro has all the tools to become an elite Grand Tour contender on a consistent basis, and challenging figures like Evenepoel on a seven-day course is the perfect way to pursue that.

Dynamic in his attacks and a ruthless finisher with the line in sight, Del Toro will be looking to back up the victory of Pogačar in 2025, but this is his season debut, and though his climbing form will be tested to the max by Evenepoel up to Jebel Morah and Jebel Hafeet, it’s the time trial could be his undoing.

He won’t be alone in his efforts either, with UAE Team Emirates-XRG of course fielding a stacked team for their home race, with Adam Yates, Nils Politt and Florian Vermeersch backing him up.

Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM)

Austrian GC rider Felix Gall is one of the riders helped by the change in course, with the typical climbers’ sprint finish atop Jebel Jais not suiting him at all, and the change to the viciously steep Jebel Morah offering him a second chance to flex his pure climbing ability.

Last season, he started here with Paul Seixas as a GC tandem for Decathlon CMA CGM, but Gall will lead the French team on his own this time around, supported by new signing for 2026, Gregor Mühlberger.

He’s not a typical early-season flyer, able to peak well for the biggest events – shown in his fifth-place finish at last year’s Tour de France, but he’s undeniably one of the top climbers in the world, so could impress on the two steep challenges.

Antonio Tiberi & Afonso Eulálio (Bahrain-Victorious)

Bahrain Victorious are lining up for the UAE Tour with three options to take on the GC fight, with Antonio Tiberi looking the most likely to challenge the bigger names, but Afonso Eulálio and Damiano Caruso also offering a wealth of experience to their ambitions.

Tiberi most recently finished fourth overall at the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana, where Evenepoel took victory, but his shape was solid, and he could be building ahead of the UAE Tour. Caruso finished 12th while supporting his Italian compatriot.

Eulálio presents a less predictable GC threat, who is willing to launch bold attacks and could benefit all of the team by forcing others to chase him down. He finished fifth on GC at the AlUla Tour but looked very punchy on the main climbing days, so expect him to be on the attack once again.

Michael Storer (Tudor Pro Cycling)

Michael Storer gets his 2026 campaign underway in the UAE after closing out last season with a bang by finishing third at Il Lombardia behind only Pogačar and Evenepoel, and he’ll be hoping to storm into top form from the get-go on Monday.

He raced here last season but failed to really impress, only hitting top form for Paris-Nice and the Tour of the Alps in the months that followed, so he may be following a similar plan and still be building up to his peak.

Storer is another rider who may benefit from another steep climb being added to the route, as he is likely to lose heavy time to the likes of Evenepoel and Del Toro in the time trial.

Lennert Van Eetvelt (Lotto-Intermarché)

One of three former winners alongside Evenepoel and Yates, Lennert Van Eetvelt won’t be expected to repeat what he managed in 2024, when several of the biggest stars were absent, but he will be confident on the route nonetheless.

Going against Van Eetvelt is his recent form, however, with his season opener Down Under ending in a DNF due to crashing on the second stage. This also came after he’d started the season trying to put a back injury from last year behind him, having failed to net a win or rediscover his best legs.

Ilan Van Wilder (Soudal-QuickStep)

One rider who will be eyeing a top performance to upstage his previous teammate, Evenepoel, will be Ilan Van Wilder, as he leads Soudal-QuickStep in his first race of 2026.

A talented climber, Van Wilder lived in the shadow of his superstar teammate during his first five years at the Belgian squad, often operating as one of many domestiques in Evenepoel’s climbing train, but with him now gone, there’s a chance to step into the spotlight.

Van Wilder made big improvements in 2025, finishing in the top overall of the Volta ao Algarve, Paris-Nice, Itzulia Basque Country, the Tour de Suisse and Tour of Britain. With a strong TT in his arsenal, Van Wilder will be one to watch on the climbs.

Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility)

After the best season of his career, sixth-place Tour de France finisher Tobias Halland Johanessen also arrives at the UAE for his first race in 2026, and he’ll be hoping to pick up right where he left off.

Long recognised as a potential GC star – as any Tour de l’Avenir winner should be, just ask Tadej Pogačar or Egan Bernal – Johannessen at 26 looks a more complete rider than ever, with his Tour result coming off the back of a fifth-place overall finish at a stacked Dauphiné, where only Pogačar, Vingegaard, Lipowitz and Evenepoel were better than him.

History would say he doesn’t tend to start the season firing on all cylinders, with a more steady build-up for his big objectives, so that’s why he’s lower down than would perhaps be expected. But with Uno-X Mobility finally operating as a WorldTour team, they’ll be looking for a strong placing.

Who do you think will win the UAE Tour?

Let us know in the comments section below!