NCAAW: TCU Horned Frogs’ Olivia Miles an even better WNBA prospect now

Olivia Miles’ previous career-high in 3-point attempts was 13. On Thursday, it became 20.

Miles became a high-volume 3-point shooter last year at Notre Dame, but on Thursday, the most gifted passer the college game has seen in quite some time fell in love with the 3 at a whole new level, making 10 of them en route to a career-high 40 points to help her No. 17 TCU Horned Frogs win 83-67 over the No. 12 Baylor Bears.

It was yet another showcase of how her skill set has evolved since beginning college a semester early as the No. 8 recruit in the high school class of 2021. Once a poor 3-point shooter, she shot 40.6 percent from beyond the arc last year.

She may be shooting less efficiently from 3 this year compared to last (down to 37.3 percent), but she has shown that she can couple a higher volume of long-range bombs with averages in assists and rebounds that approach her career highs. She’s posting 6.6 helpers per contest (up 0.8 from last year) and 6.8 boards (up 1.2). She’s also upped her career-best in 2-point field goals per game by 0.7 to 5.3, contributing to her career-leading 7.3 field goals per game (up 1.9). She’s having her most efficient season from the floor save for the six games she played in 2020-21, shooting 50.7 percent, up 2.4 percent from her next-best full season. She’s making 0.6 more free throws per game than she’s ever made (3.9) at a stellar 85.7 percent clip that is 6.7 percent better than her previous best.

She’s taken on a higher volume of attempts in free throws, 2s and 3s. That, along with her increased efficiency in the first two categories and her ability to maintain a very good clip from distance, have contributed to a 5.1-point rise in her best scoring average to 20.5.

She’s nearing the 50-40-90 ballpark, and scoring 20.5 points per game. All the while, she is the triple-double threat she’s always been, whose “wow” factor when it comes to passes puts her in rare air with the Point Gawd, Chelsea Gray.

Before this season, there was a narrative of “Why is she coming back to college when she is the projected No. 2 pick in the WNBA Draft?”

True, there is no difference between the No. 1 and No. 2 picks’ starting salary, so even if Miles were to move up to the top spot, it wouldn’t change anything. And in ESPN’s Friday 2026 mock draft, as well as our Eric Nemchock’s mock from January, Miles is projected to go third. That would earn her the same amount of money as No. 1 and No. 2, so not a downgrade, but also not an improvement.

But with her NIL deals, plus the brand-new revenue sharing system for NCAA athletes, she’s doing just fine moneywise. The real reason people thought she should have gone pro in 2025 is because they thought she had nothing new left to show WNBA scouts. Why risk injury if that’s the case?

But Miles has taken her game to yet another level this season.

In all likelihood, demonstrating this improvement in college, rather than as a WNBA rookie, will end up benefitting her. She’s gotten to test herself as a dominant scorer in a space where that is possible, as she likely wouldn’t have had the opportunity to occupy such a high-impact role right away in the W. When the time comes in the W, she can reach back to what she’s learned this season and apply it in order to become a bigger star.

Whether it was the right decision or not, Miles has clearly shown just how good of a prospect she is, even before her apex effort on Thursday.

WNBA fans are now EVEN MORE excited to see her at the next level. With the Seattle Storm holding the No. 3 pick, a team-up with do-it-all 6-foot-6 center Dominique Malonga, the No. 2 pick in last year’s draft, would be intriguing to say the least, and it could last for years to come.

For now, Miles’ goal is getting to her first Elite Eight, and hopefully beyond.

2023 may have been Miles’ best shot thus far at advancing beyond the Sweet 16. Her Irish earned the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament, but, due to her season-ending ACL tear suffered in the regular-season finale, they were blown out by Louisville 64-38 in the semifinals, thus lowering their seeding to a No. 3 for the Big Dance. They met No. 2 seed Maryland in the Sweet 16; having lost to the Terps on a buzzer-beater in the regular season, Notre Dame was no match for them without Miles, falling 76-59. Miles’ sharpshooting teammate Dara Mabrey also suffered a season-ending ACL tear that regular season.

Hannah Hidalgo came in as a freshman the following season, which Miles missed the entirety of as she recovered from her injury. Hidalgo led Notre Dame to a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but the Irish again fell in the Sweet 16. Miles was active for the two other Sweet 16 games during her Irish tenure, going for 21 points, six boards and six helpers in a 2022 loss to NC State and managing just 10 points, two boards and three helpers in last year’s loss to the team she now represents.

It’s been a heartbreaking Elite Eight curse for Miles. So she came back to college to right the wrongs.

The win over Baylor on Thursday was huge, but before that, the Frogs lost to Colorado, the first team outside the tournament field in ESPN’s Bracketology as of Friday morning. This season, TCU (22-4, 10-3 Big 12) has also lost to a Utah team that is part of the “Last Four In.” Their other two losses have come to No. 8 Ohio State and No. 16 Texas Tech. While two of those are pretty bad losses, all of their losses have come by two points or less, or in overtime. That’s how close they are to being undefeated.

After the Baylor win, their next-biggest win came by a point over now-No. 19 West Virginia, the team they face Sunday night (8 p.m. ET, FS1). The rematch against the Mountaineers is crucial, as is a rematch with the Bears to close the regular season on March 1 (4 p.m. ET, ESPN).

The Frogs were No. 12 in the first NCAA top 16 reveal on Saturday, putting them on track to be a No. 3 seed. Just like every team, they’d really like to hold on to host status. And with how Miles is playing, the Horned Frogs should be confident in that happening.