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Ole Miss entered the SEC Tournament on a four-game losing streak, with the last two defeats coming to Florida and Texas A&M, two teams outside ESPN’s projected NCAA Tournament field.
Yet, the No. 24 Rebels came out on Friday and secured a 2-0 record against one of the best teams in the country in Vanderbilt, pushing them into the conference tourney’s semifinals and closer to hosting the first two rounds of the Big Dance.
And they didn’t just beat Vandy, they embarrassed them, going on a 17-0 first-quarter run to lead 23-2 and eventually leading by 32 points at halftime before winning 89-78. Commodore head coach Shea Ralph was ejected.
Cat identified the Ole Miss-Vandy quarterfinal contest as one to watch, and called on Rebel star Cotie McMahon to step up in order for her team to get the win.
It was Latasha Lattimore who led Ole Miss with 28 points, but McMahon was right behind her with 27. Christeen Iwuala, who led the Rebels with 18 points and nine boards in the second round of the SEC tourney (and had 18 and 14 in the regular-season win over the Commodores) was held to two points on 1-for-2 shooting. She fouled out after playing 19 minutes. It didn’t matter.
Ole Miss held national-leading scorer and SEC Player of the Year Mikayla Blakes to 0-for-10 shooting in the first half. In the end, she scored 24 points but was still below her season average of 27. She was a solid 5-for-14 from 3, while SEC Freshman of the Year Aubrey Galvan was 2-for-5. But sharpshooter Justine Pissot (42.2 percent on the season) missed the mark seven times on nine attempts, and the rest of the team went 0-for-5, leaving Vandy at 27.9 percent.
The ‘Dores made more 3s (nine) than they did in their first meeting with the Rebels (four) and more than Ole Miss made on Friday (six), but the Rebels achieved their total at a 50 percent clip. The overall field goal percentage battle ultimately told the story, with Ole Miss shooting 57 percent to 38 (five more makes despite 16 fewer attempts).
The win moved Ole Miss from a No. 6 seed to a No. 5 in ESPN’s Bracketology. A win over No. 4 Texas in the semifinals could allow them to host.
We have been denied a Texas-Vandy rematch. Vandy won the regular-season meeting by 16 points and would have had a shot at stealing the final No. 1 seed in the Big Dance from the Longhorns. But the Ole Miss-Texas game this year was a good one, with the Rebels only losing by three. And in the other SEC semifinal, we get an enticing South Carolina-LSU rematch, as the Tigers will, yet again, try to defeat the Gamecocks—something they’ve failed to do the last 18 times.
Kansas State is going to keep on dancing in the Big 12
With their 74-73 win over No. 4-seed Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals, No. 12-seed Kansas State has moved onto the bubble as the very last team in ESPN Bracketology’s “next four out” (essentially the No. 76 team when they need to be No. 68 or better).
If a win over mighty No. 1-seed TCU in the semis doesn’t put the Wildcats into the tournament field, they would have the opportunity to earn an automatic bid with just one more win after that.
Friday’s win was secured by an intentionally missed free throw from Tess Heal. The Cowgirls had no chance to get the ball up the court for a decent look in the remaining 1.3 seconds. Heal’s make on the front end of that trip to the line was the game-winner. Freshman Jordan Speiser, KSU’s fourth-leading scorer on the season at 9.6 points per game, achieved a career-high 21 points, including a 3 that bounced high off the front of the rim and in to make it 73-68 Wildcats with 15.5 seconds to go.
K-State’s magical run to the semis also included a 21-0 run to close their second-round contest vs. No. 21 Texas Tech, which they won by seven.
They actually beat the Lady Raiders and Cowgirls (and Ole Miss!) in the regular season and only lost to No. 15 West Virginia by two. However, they lost to the Horned Frogs by 22, so it’s going to take a special effort to keep this going.
Did bubble teams strengthen their Big Dance bids?
Another Big 12 bubble team is Colorado. The good news for the Buffaloes is that they are on the right side of the bubble after their quarterfinal upset win over No. 20 Baylor. They are now projected to receive the final bye to the Round of 64. (Head coach JR Payne has earned that contract extension!)
Clemson is just above Colorado in the projection; they are the second-to-last team with a bye. However, the Tigers were eliminated from the ACC Tournament on Friday, so they will have to watch the rest of the conference tournaments from home and hope things work out in their favor (and that ESPN’s projections are accurate). They were unable to replicate their Feb. 22 upset win over No. 13 Duke, falling to the Blue Devils 60-46 in the quarterfinals.
Two more Big 12 teams are burbling on the bubble, with Arizona State projected as the first team and BYU as the second team out. They are oh so close to being in the projected tournament field! For their sakes, perhaps ESPN will be a little off in their prediction. Or, maybe mid-majors Princeton and/or Richmond will stumble out of the “last four in.” But the Sun Devils (eliminated by West Virginia on Friday) and Cougars (eliminated by TCU) can’t do anything more on their end.
Can WVU, UNC or Notre Dame jump into the Top 16?
All of the projected No. 4-seeds (Oklahoma, Kentucky, Maryland and Minnesota) have been eliminated from their conference tournaments, opening the door for No. 5-seeds West Virginia and UNC and No. 6-seed Notre Dame to potentially move up into the Top 16 and earn the right to host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
The Mountaineers have a good chance of advancing to the Big 12 championship game, as they will face a bubble team in Colorado in the semis. UNC and Notre Dame face more difficult tasks in Louisville and Duke, respectively, but that also means those wins would be worth more.
West Virginia may need to also win the Big 12 championship game to move up to the No. 4 line, and it would help even more if it came against TCU, not Kansas State. Likewise, the Fighting Irish may need to win the whole ACC tourney in order to move up two lines. And all of these teams will be dependent on what happens elsewhere.
