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As often as we may root for upsets in March, sometimes the cream just rises to the top.
The first and second seeds in the ACC Tournament will rightfully meet in the championship, with head coach Kara Lawson and No. 13 Duke, the tournament’s No. 1 seed, having a chance to win back-to-back ACC titles for the first time since 2011. Standing in their way is No. 12 Louisville, the No. 2 seed in the ACC that has made a trend out of competing with the country’s best this year.
The title tilt between the Blue Devils and Cardinals tips off at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN. Here’s how they advanced to the championship stage, and what might decide which team takes the trophy.
Duke survived a challenging semifinal against Notre Dame
Duke survived a second-half semifinal comeback from an inspired Notre Dame team, playing behind the heroics of Hannah Hidalgo, the ACC Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year.
Notre Dame was facing a seven-point deficit at halftime, which morphed to a five-point lead by the beginning of the fourth quarter. Lawson’s team really struggled to generate quality looks against Notre Dame’s patented tandem 2-3 zone, a formation that they had to have been expecting. Duke’s lack of off-the-dribble shot creators didn’t match up well with the Fighting Irish’s ability to fly around on defense. Duke wasn’t able to generate shots off of ball movement, and just doesn’t have the talent to consistently rely on isolations. They also struggled mightily with turnovers, an issue that they desperately corrected down the stretch to regain a lead.
While their semifinal win was shakier than many would have imagined, being forced to win within the margins of a close game will certainly prep them for the intensity of Sunday’s matchup.
They will need more from their guards, especially Ashlon Jackson and Riley Nelson. Jackson and Nelson shot a combined 5-for-22, missing on a handful of makeable 3s. Their frontcourt won them the game, scoring much-needed baskets against the Notre Dame zone and keeping possessions alive with 20 offensive rebounds. As dominant as they were, Duke’s frontcourt will have to work much harder against the Cardinals on Sunday.
Louisville saw their own success within a zone on Saturday, but they strived more in taking away 3-point looks, which isn’t Duke’s forte. The two met in early February, when the Blue Devils escaped with a one-point win amidst their surging conference play campaign. Louisville missed seven free throws that night, and have certainly been itching to prove that they have what it takes to beat Duke.
Imari Berry carried Louisville past UNC
More likely than not, the Louisville offense will be at the mercy of their guard shotmaking.
Against UNC in their semifinal matchup, Imari Berry was lights-out, and practically single-handedly won her team the game in the second half. Berry finished with 22 points on 9-for-14 shooting. It was just her third career game with 20 or more points, but it would have looked like a regular occurrence if you didn’t know better.
If Berry or Tajianna Roberts are on a heater, it will put a lot of pressure on Toby Fournier and Delaney Thomas to respond on the other side of the floor. If they aren’t having good finishing games, Duke will be in trouble.
Elif Istanbulluoglu, the junior forward who plays a big role in Louisville’s interior dominance, briefly left Saturday’s semifinal after rolling her ankle in the second half. She came back with three minutes to play in the fourth quarter, but her potentially not being at 100 percent may put a bigger burden on Anaya Hardy to carry an offensive load—something that Hardy is not generally asked to do.
A “make or miss” afternoon could determine the ACC champ
Louisville expects much more production from the 3-point line than Duke, but outside of shot diet discrepancies, the two are very similar teams. Both are very talented offensive rebounding teams. Both are top five defenses in the ACC. Both are balanced scoring attacks: Duke has six players averaging more than eight points per game, Louisville has seven.
Assuming neither team is able to find a real advantage on the glass, this game will come down to pure shotmaking.
Physical advantages are more or less null and void. Louisville’s guards will have to connect on their jumpers, and Duke’s bigs will need to finish their looks in the paint. With two physical defensive powerhouses meeting up, Sundays game will be about getting a bucket.
