A New Era for Atlanta Dream Basketball » Winsidr

The Atlanta Dream’s 2024 season ended in similar fashion to their 2023 season—a playoff series loss without a home playoff game.

The Dream entered the 2024-2025 offseason with a plan—a plan of change.

The team relieved head coach Tanisha Wright of her duties and hired Karl Smesko, the long-time head coach of Florida Gulf Coast University, as their new leader. But Smesko wasn’t the only change, no, as the Dream revamped their roster, focusing on veterans who can fit Smesko’s “Above The Line” offensive scheme, which has a focus on three-point shots and drives to the rim for easy layups.

Will the Dream be able to get over the hump and win their first playoff game since 2018, or will this new-look Atlanta squad take some time to figure things out?

Let’s take a look at what’s new, what’s uncertain, and what fans can realistically expect from a team with a sneaky-good offseason in its attempt to revamp and reshape its identity. 

In: Brittney Griner, Brionna Jones, Shatori Walker-Kimbrough, Maria Gakdeng, Emani Jefferson, Holly Winterburn (will miss the season), Ashley Joens, Karl Smesko

Out: Tina Charles, Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, Laeticia Amihere, Aerial Powers, Lorela Cubaj, Tanisha Wright

Drafted: Te-Hina Paopao, Taylor Thierry

The Dream’s offense was stagnant early on last year. Atlanta’s inside-out approach, playing through the now-departed Tina Charles and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, relegated its primary playmakers in Howard and Gray to seemingly secondary options instead of offensive initiators. It corrected itself as the season went on, thanks in large part to Jordin Canada overcoming a hand injury, which caused her to miss the first third of the season.

The Dream’s offense often tried (and failed) to establish an identity as it missed Canada’s up-tempo style, instead looking for spot-up jumpers and post-possessions with Haley Jones being miscast—again!—as starting point guard.

In all, the Dream averaged a league-low 77.0 points per game (PPG) and finished dead last in the WNBA in field goal percentage (40.8 percent) and effective field goal percentage (eFG%)—which adjusts for three-point shots by weighin them 1.5 the amount of a two-point shot—(45.2 percent) at their No. 11-ranked pace (80.5 possessions per 40 minutes).

Bringing in Smesko makes sense for a team trying to find its identity offensively, as Smesko’s teams at Florida Gulf Coast finished in the 91st percentile or higher among Division I collegiate teams in offensive rating in each of his last seven years at the program. 

Smesko’s offense—which he refers to as “share and stretch”—emphasizes efficient looks from behind the three-point line, spacing, and drives to the rim for easy layups. 

“We move the ball. We move people, but we do it with the thinking of how we can create more space for the ball, particularly our attackers and advantage creators,” Smesko said on A Quick Timeout Podcast.

Between Howard and Gray, the efficiency—and volume—of three-point attempts that Smesko wants to see is covered. Atlanta shot 30.8 percent from three-point land last year (again, 11th in the league), averaging 19.4 three-point attempts per game (ranking ninth, so still below league average). Howard and Gray accounted for 13.2 of those looks. 

For a comparison, in Smesko’s final nine seasons at the helm at FGCU, his teams averaged 32.1 three pointers attempted per game.

Howard and Gray have that area covered in theory—though having Canada continue to improve from three-point range and rookie Te-Hina Paopao contributing in this area would be huge—but it’s the part of getting the efficient looks at the rim that the Dream has to address.

Enter Griner and Brionna Jones.

In 2024, inside of the five-feet range, the Dream shot 56.1 percent from the field, besting only the Chicago Sky in that stat. 

That falls on Charles, Parker-Tyus, Naz Hillmon, and Nia Coffey, yes, but also on the lack of offensive identity and stagnation that the Dream played with under Wright.

Griner ranked sixth in eFG% last year at 59.1 percent, which was the highest mark of her career, and she lives within that five-foot range.

As for Jones, she ranked 22nd, with a 54 percent eFG. 

Both Parker-Tyus (45.2 percent) and Charles (46.6 percent) brought the Dream down in efficiency near the rack.

Now, is it fair to question the potential spacing issues with two dominant bigs in Jones and Griner down low?

Absolutely. 

Griner has shown the willingness and capability of shooting from deep in Unrivaled this offseason, but it’s hard to compare the spacing of three-on-three vs. five-on-five in the WNBA. Both Griner and Jones make their living from inside the five-foot range offensively.

Jones ranks fourth in the most attempts  per game from inside five feet (6.7 per game), with Griner ranking 15th with 5.2 per game. When you remove players who drive to the basket like DiJonai Carrington, A’ja Wilson, Chennedy Carter, Napheesa Collier, Natasha Howard, Kahleah Copper, and Alyssa Thomas, Griner and Jones rank a lot closer to each other.

This is a spacing nightmare, as Jones—2.1 attempts—and Griner—5.6 attempts—combine for 7.7 field goal attempts between five feet and 14 feet per game.

Understanding how to work off of each other on the blocks to unclog the paint for not only the drop-off passes but also for their primary offensive initiators to work in the paint is crucial for the share-and-stretch approach to come alive.

Projected Starting Rotation: Jordin Canada, Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard, Brionna Jones, Brittney Griner

Canada is a floor spacer, with game-changing speed, allowing her to drive into the lane to either find Howard or Gray for a spot-up three if the wing defense collapses, or a dish off to Griner or Jones—again, the spacing will be interesting—for an easy layup.

The advantage the Dream will have with this unit is the ability for Gray and Howard to both operate as players who can put the ball on the floor and, when deployed as off-guards beside Canada, can attack slanted defenses. They aren’t just players that you stick in the corner for threes, but high-IQ stars who are able to get those high-efficient looks on offense from three, driving to the rim, or spot-up jumpers off of a pump-fake. 

Defensively, in 2024, Atlanta played in low-scoring games, allowing its opposition to score 79.8 PPG. 

But with the slow pace, the Dream were able to dictate the game. Within Smesko’s offense, expect that to change, with possessions climbing significantly for both teams. 

Canada is a stingy defender, consistently able to fight over screens and cut off angles with her body positioning on the perimeter. Howard loves taking the primary defensive assignment and, while Griner has lost a step defensively, she’s still able to be a high-level rim defender. Her lack of lateral movement can be hidden more in the WNBA than it was in Unrivaled. 

A key for Atlanta defensively is keeping Griner in drop coverage when possible and offering extended help on the pick-and-roll defensively from the wings and Jones will be crucial for this unit.

The Projected Bench: Shatori Walker-Kimbrough, Naz Hillmon, Te-Hina Paopao, Nia Coffey, Haley Jones, Maya Caldwell, Ashley Joens

Hillmon and Coffey will play big roles for the Dream again this year, as they don’t have any true bigs off the bench behind Jones and Griner. So expect to see a staggered approach with Griner and Jones both starting and then one of them on the floor opposite of each other throughout the game.

Paopao fell in the lap of the Dream in the second round of the draft, and her ability to be that stationary three-point shooter for the Dream in her rookie year will enable her to play a big role for Atlanta right away. There are questions about her ability to create and get separation offensively, but Paopao can absolutely let it fly—efficiently—from deep.

In her five years of collegiate ball—three at the University of Oregon and two at South Carolina—Paopao shot 39.3 percent from behind the arc. She averaged more three-point attempts per game in each of her five seasons than she did two-point attempts.

That’s exactly what Smesko will be looking for in his rookie guard.

Walker-Kimbrough is going to bring a defensive intensity to this team, doing the things that won’t always show up in the box score. Seeing her close tightly-contested games wouldn’t be a surprise when the Dream are facing a smaller team.

Haley Jones is a polarizing player, given the lack of production two seasons in and being miscast as a lead guard, but the team loves her and she brings energy to the Dream. Plus, she’s on a rookie deal, which is important when it comes with a club option at $90,908 next season. 

After that, it’s a toss up, but I lean toward the veteran Caldwell on a veteran’s minimum contract to make the team, as well as Ashley Joens slightly over Taylor Thierry and Emani Jefferson (even though the latter played at FGCU, for what it’s worth). 

Their Ceiling

Are they an elite-level team? No, they aren’t, but if Smesko’s offense can translate to the WNBA and his team gets into the flow of his offense, Atlanta can be a No. 6 seed for the playoffs. The spacing of Jones and Griner and the ability for someone to play a big role off the bench will be critical for the Dream’s success.

Their Floor

Is it too optimistic to say their floor is the No. 8 seed? Maybe, but by process of elimination—the Valkyries, Sun, and Mystics aren’t competing this year—it might just be true. Howard and Gray can take over games, so it comes down to Griner having enough left in the tank and for Jones to be the quiet No. 3 on this team, which is a role she excelled in during her time in Connecticut as an All-Star overshadowed by Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner, and, at times, DiJonai Carrington.

Season prediction

No. 6 seed in the playoffs, winning their first playoff game since the 2018 season, but losing in the first round to the Indiana Fever.