A Six figure Caitlin Clark Black Prizm 1/1?

With WNBA Panini Prizm yet to be released, collectors are eager to see what the Caitlin Clark Black Prizm 1/1 might fetch at auction – especially after her Select Gold Vinyl 1/1 autograph made headlines by selling for $234,850 (click here to read more about that sale).

Prizm is the flagship brand of the Panini era, and many expect the Prizm Black 1/1 of Caitlin Clark to surpass even the most talented NBA prospects in terms of auction value. Let’s use some math and hypotheticals to estimate what her best rookie card to date might bring at auction. While it’s challenging to draw a direct comparison between a Select Gold Vinyl 1/1 autograph and a Black Prizm 1/1 for any player, we can look at a few past sales to find some common ground.

For this experiment, we’re using the Panini Donruss Optic Gold Vinyl Rated Rookie 1/1 autograph, a card from a product of similar “tier” to Select, with many comparable features. After examining several recent auctions, we found three players who had sales of both their Optic Gold Vinyl autograph and Black Prizm within a couple of months of each other. These players were Zion Williamson, Brock Purdy, and Trevor Lawrence. Across these three athletes, the price multiple of the Black Prizm compared to the Optic autograph averaged 4.876. Based on this, we can estimate that Caitlin Clark’s Black Prizm 1/1 could sell for an astonishing $1,145,128.

It’s worth noting that Caitlin Clark’s Black Prizm likely won’t be hitting the auction block anytime soon, and this information is only relevant if the card sells in the next couple of months. Additionally, there are a few more factors to consider when estimating its potential auction price.

For starters, her Select Gold Vinyl 1/1 Autograph was graded a PSA 10 with an autograph grade of 10, which undoubtedly contributed to its high auction price (although in general, 1/1s sales prices aren’t grade-dependent, as they’re the only one of their kind). On the other hand, there is usually a multiplier effect in play whenever an athlete as renown and sought-after as Caitlin Clark, has their best card in existence hit the market, which could elevate the price of her Black Prizm.

What all of this really means is that there are too many variables to definitively determine what her best card would sell for. That said, we can always make predictions and improve our dataset for the future.