Will the Seattle Seahawks return to the playoffs in their first year under head coach Mike Macdonald? Based on advanced metrics, the answer is about 50-50.
Earlier this month, Aaron Schatz’s FTN Football Almanac 2024 was released, and in the annual DVOA preseason projections, the Seahawks have a playoff probability of 48.2%, which is a little higher than the previous season when they did miss out. Their average win total would be about 9 wins, mimicking the previous two years under Geno Smith. It may seem like jogging in place, but it’s not that bad considering the roster turnover and new coaching staff.
I had the opportunity to interview Schatz, the creator of DVOA and one of the most prominent NFL analytics figures, about Seattle’s playoff odds and why they’re projected to push for a Wild Card spot, as well as a few other topics.
Seahawks playoff chances
“The big surprise is that we have the Seahawks defense improving,” Schatz said. “Because of that, and because they have the No. 2 projection on special teams—which gets a little bit of an asterisk, because this year is like, ultra nobody knows what the hell is going to happen—they end up with the 14th highest projection for total DVOA. That’s a playoff team! With the current playoff setup, that’s not ‘we snuck in because we’re in the NFC.’ That’s one of the top-14 teams, you make the playoffs.
“In our projections, if the top seven [NFC] teams in our average win projections were to make the playoffs, Seattle would be the seventh seed. So we definitely have them as playoff contenders. Part of that is because the NFC is a little weaker, but they deserve it. If San Francisco is as good as we expect, they’re not competing for a division title. They’re a wild card contender and a good one.”
The offense is projected to be average (16th) in DVOA, but the Seahawks defense would surge all the way up to 11th after finishing 28th in 2023. Uncertainty surrounding the offensive line will likely limit Seattle’s offensive ceiling, but I think Seahawks fans would be ecstatic with that sort of defensive turnaround.
“It is absolutely true that all other things being equal, teams that have a brand new system with new coordinators and new head coaches do tend to take a step back. We do have that little bit of penalty in our projections for the Seahawks,” Schatz added.
As for why the defense is projected to improve, we circled back on this topic when I asked why the Chicago Bears have such a low win total projection despite the arrival of Caleb Williams, major additions to the offense, and a seemingly improved defense.
“[The Bears] were super depended on takeaways last year, and that really heavily regresses to the mean from season to season. Last year Chicago was No. 4 in the NFL in takeaways per drive. Seattle was below average in takeaways per drive, and that’s one of the reasons we project their defense to be better this year.
“Another one is short yardage success against the run also tends to regress from year to year. Chicago had one of the better defenses in short yardage against the run Seattle had one of the worst defenses. Those are obviously very important plays because you’re talking about continuing drives, and it does tend to regress from season to season.”
Sam Howell
I also asked Schatz about new backup quarterback Sam Howell, whose lone season as a starter with the Washington Commanders saw him get sacked more than anyone else in the league. While Howell was pressed into throwing way more than preferred, his 9.6% sack rate was one of the highest despite the Commanders having a middling pass blocking unit. Can he change his fortunes around in Seattle?
“Sack rate is hard to change,” Schatz said. “It’s one of the stickiest stats from college to the NFL, that’s one of the things we’ve discovered in the last couple of years. It’s hard to change in the NFL. I think he can be a reasonable backup, but he was pretty bad last year. I can’t imagine he’s really any worse than Drew Lock, but he’s just a backup. Geno’s the starter, that’s written in stone.
“I know there’s this image that Howell had no help around him, but he did have Terry McLaurin. He had a top number one [receiver]. Everyone agrees Terry McLaurin—you have to go beyond the stats because the stats get dragged down by his quarterback so much—that he’s a guy. He’s a good player. Howell at least had that to work with.”
Elite Seahawks special teams
Seattle’s special teams was 8th last season and was a bright spot under former coordinator Larry Izzo. Jay Harbaugh has taken up Izzo’s job, and the expectation is Seattle will have an elite group. Any reason for concern about Jason Myers after seven missed field goals? Maybe you shouldn’t.
“Here’s the thing about the field goals compare to average: it’s very inconsistent from year to year,” Schatz said. “What’s much more consistent is punting and at least punt returns—because we have no idea what kick returns are going to be like. The Seahawks were really good punting last year. It’s not as much [Michael] Dickson was good as the coverage was good. But we know Dickson is good, too. Punting is the most highly correlated part of special teams from year to year, so that’s why Seattle’s special teams projection is 2nd to the Ravens.
“But again, special teams projections are all very tight to average. Also, we don’t know quite what’s going to happen [with the new kickoffs]. There’s no special teams performance is going to be a wider range of possibilities this year than last year. It’s going to be very interesting.”
Positive red zone regression
Related to Jason Myers, the Seahawks kicked more field goals than anyone else in 2023. This was partially due to lackluster red zone performance, which the Seahawks have had over the past two seasons. Perhaps there’s reason to believe the red zone woes won’t persist forever, and it may not necessarily be attributed to coaching or quarterback or the quality of the offensive line.
“The red zone thing is very interesting to me,” Schatz said, “because I don’t know what the impact on coaches should be of the fact that we know red zone performance is not as consistent from year to year as other performance. Does that suggest teams should spend less time practicing red zone plays or more time? I’m not sure which is the coaching answer to how to react to the fact that that’s the research.
“Seattle for the last couple of years has been an exception. One thing that Seattle fans can hope for is that it’s just a weird blip, and that, in fact, their offense in the red zone is going going to regress toward their offense overall, which would mean scoring more touchdowns overall because their offense overall is a little bit above average.
The FTN Football Almanac 2024 is available for purchase either digitally through the FTN Fantasy website, or through a physical copy on Amazon. If you’re a stats nerd, you will love this book. I thank Aaron for conducting this interview, and you’ll see plenty of advanced statistical analysis throughout the season courtesy of the FTN database.
